San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors [West Semis]
(6) Golden State Warriors vs (2) San Antonio Spurs
AccuScore Preview (Game 1)
The Spurs are solid 76 percent favorites in game 1 vs the Warriors. The Spurs are favored by 8.5 points but the Warriors cover that spread more often than not. The safer bet would be to take the points and Warriors. The total score for the game is set at 201 and has a 62.1 percent chance of going under.
The Warriors have lost 29 straight times in San Antonio. Sheeesh.
Tony Parker vs Stephen Curry. Kawhi Leonard vs Harrison Barnes. Tim Duncan vs Andrew Bogut. ‘Nuff said?
There are a lot of good matchups this series, and the winner will be determined by which team adjusts from quarter to quarter, game to game. In the first round, Steph Curry had some pretty terrible first halves, followed by impressive third quarters. The difference? More off-ball movement in the third, screens getting Curry some easy looks to get going.
It’s all about making adjustments, and whether or not Coach Mark Jackson can keep up with Pop.
The always-aging Spurs got a good amount of rest after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers 4-0 in the first round. The question now is – will the rested team prevail, or the other one riding a wave of momentum?
Why the Spurs will win: Coach Pop. It starts and ends there. The Spurs have the outside shooters to counter Golden State’s, and I have much more faith in Pop’s team containing the likes of Jarrett Jack and Draymond Green as opposed to George Karl. In the Warriors’ first round series vs the Nuggets, both Curry and Thompson had long stretches of sub-par shooting; they were able to win those games and the series because guys like Jack, Green, and Barnes stepped up big. I’ve got to assume that Pop will be more prepared for that.
Why the Warriors will win: If the Warriors continue to the shoot the way they have been, no defense can stop it. Curry and Thompson have the capability to make threes from a few feet behind the line, and there’s not much to do against that. Forgetting what’s actually on the court, the home court advantage at Oracle could play a huge role. If the Warriors can steal a game in San Antonio, I’m almost 100% sure they’ll win both back at home (games 3 & 4), largely due to the madhouse that is the Oracle Arena.
Unfortunate News: David Lee says there’s ‘zero’ chance that he could play a significant role for Warriors against Spurs.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Points per game (per 100 possessions): Spurs 103.0 (105.9), Warriors 101.2 (104.2)
Points allowed per game (per 100 possessions): Spurs 96.6 (99.2), Warriors 100.3 (102.6)
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession) – PLAYOFFS ONLY
San Antonio: Offense 111.0 (1st in the post season), Defense 90.6 (1st in the post season)
Golden State: Offense 107.7 (5th in the post season), Defense 102.4 (9th in the post season)
This one’s tougher to pick than I anticipated – the Spurs could easily take this in 5 games, but the Warriors are going to be playing with a whole lot of confidence. And that’s all a shooter like Curry (or Thompson) needs. Confidence. I think the Warriors steal game 2, and the Spurs even it back up in game 4.
Spurs in 6