Game Preview with AccuScore: NY Jets @ NE Patriots

Game Preview with AccuScore: NY Jets @ NE Patriots

The New York Jets and New England Patriots get set to kick off Week 2 in tonight’s Thursday Night Football match-up in Foxborough, Mass. Both teams are coming off surprising week 1 finishes, one that saw the Patriots just outlast the Buffalo Bills 23-21 and the Jets get the lucky 18-17 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 


AccuScore simulations have the Patriots as strong 70.5 percent favorites tonight. They got a big win (10 pts or more) in nearly 49 percent of those simulated wins.


Jets rookie Geno Smith finished his first NFL game by completing 24-of-38 passes (63.2% completion rate) for 256 yards, one TD and one INT. He had a passer rating of 80.6. He also rushed six times for 47 yards. My favorite stat about Smith’s game last week was that his 24 completions were spread out amongst 8 different receivers; it shows patience and makes it so defense can’t simply focus in on one or two guys.

Given that the Jets have very little offensive power, Smith actually performed better than expected. Let’s just put it this way – in the five years that Sanchez has been in the league, he has had a passer rating greater than 80.6 just five times. He’s also never been close to rushing for 47 yards in a game. This isn’t meant to compare the two, just point out that over-criticizing Smith at this point is unreasonable. Smith is projected to throw for 168 yards; he has the exact same probability of throwing an INT as he does a TD. He’s only projected to attempt a run 1-2 times tonight.

On the other side, we’ll see QB Tom Brady. No need to go into how he plays, because, well, we already know how good he is. In tonight’s game, the only chance the Jets have at keeping this close is to hold Brady under 300 throwing yards. In the past three seasons, the Patriots have only been able to win in regulation vs the Jets when Brady reaches the 300-yard mark.Brady is projected to throw for 239 yards with nearly the same probability of throwing a TD as an INT. Really? I’m a bit surprised at that AccuScore projection – I’d expect Brady to throw for 250+ yards with 0 INTs.

AccuScore projected score: 25-16
My prediction: 24-10

Game Projection PTS TO
NY Jets Jets 16.0 1.4
New England Patriots 24.5 1.8
Projected Leaders
Passing: Tom Brady (NWE) 239.1 yds
Rushing: Stevan Ridley (NWE) 97.5 yds
Receiving: Kenbrell Thompkins (NWE) 70.5 yds

Live Betting Predictions
Point Spread AccuScore Probability
101 New York Jets +11 54.4%
102 New England Patriots -11 43.3%
Over / Under AccuScore Probability
OVR 42.5 43.8%
UND 42.5 56.2%
Money Line AccuScore Probability
101 New York Jets +461 29.4%
102 New England Patriots -550 70.5%
TEAM WIN % AVG SCORE BIG WIN CLOSE WIN
NYJ 29.4% 16.0 13.8% 8.0%
NWE 70.5% 24.5 48.9% 10.3%

* Big Win: 10 or more pts; Close Win: 4 or less pts


NY Jets Jets
 PASSING RAT YDS TD INT
 Geno Smith 56.3 168.2 0.7 0.7
 RUSHING ATT YDS AVG TD
 Bilal Powell 18.0 66.2 3.6 0.4
 Christopher Ivory 7.7 35.2 4.4 0.2
 Geno Smith 1.1 3.4 3.1  
 RECEIVING REC YDS AVG TD
 Santonio Holmes 4.3 53.4 12.4 0.2
 Stephen Hill 4.1 50.9 12.4 0.3
 Jeff Cumberland 2.9 34.0 11.7 0.0
 Jeremy Kerley 1.2 16.4 13.7 0.1
 DEFENSE SACK INT FUM TO
 NYJ 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.8
New England Patriots
 PASSING RAT YDS TD INT
 Tom Brady 75.8 239.1 1.0 0.9
 RUSHING ATT YDS AVG TD
 Stevan Ridley 17.7 97.5 5.5 0.7
 LeGarrette Blount 7.1 36.9 5.2 0.3
 Brandon Bolden 3.6 22.1 6.0 0.2
 RECEIVING REC YDS AVG TD
 Kenbrell Thompkins 5.9 70.5 11.9 0.3
 Zach Sudfeld 6.2 61.5 9.9 0.3
 Julian Edelman 4.1 48.6 11.9 0.2
 Michael 1.9 21.8 11.5 0.1
 DEFENSE SACK INT FUM TO
 NWE 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.4