AccuScore Game Preview: BYU Cougars @ Houston Cougars
Two cougars walk into a bar … okay, nevermind.
After an impressive 38-20 victory vs Georgia Tech last week, the BYU Cougars head to Reliant System to face the Houston Cougars. Houston kept their undefeated season alive after taking care of Memphis last week in a 25-15 win. Can they keep the loss column empty this week to become bowl-eligible?
AccuScore data has the Cougars, of BYU, as solid 78.7 percent favorites to win this week vs Houston. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 33.2 – 19.4. The probability for committing three turnovers is substantially higher for Houston, lending some credibility to their average point total in simulations stayed under 20 points. BYU has a 56.1 percent chance to cover the -10 spread. BYU also has nearly seven times the chance of a big win (10 pts or more) than Houston.
Passing: Taysom Hill (BYU) 241.7 yds | Josh O’Korn (HOU) 87.8 yds
Rushing: Jamaal Williams (BYU) 110.1 yds | Ryan Jackson (HOU) 66.7 yds | Kenneth Farror (HOU) 62.6 yds
Receiving: Cody Hoffman (BYU) 58.0 yds | Deonte Greenberry (HOU) 43.5 yds
What to Watch For
The weather forecasts some rain in Houston during the game, making the teams’ ground game that much more important. Houston’s running backs Ryan Jackson and Kenneth Farrow combine for a nice two-man threat for Houston. It’s safe to expect Jackson to get greater than 50 percent of the reps as he has done all season. Jackson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry compared to Farrow’s 4.7. BYU has been below average all season in their red zone coverage, an issue Farrow might take full advantage of. He rushed for 2 TDs in Houston’s win last week vs Memphis.
Just like Utah has to in their game vs Arizona, it is imperative that BYU protect the ball. Although Houston has a higher probability to commit multiple turnovers, it must be noted that Houston leads the nation at turnover margin (+14). BYU, on the other hand, is No. 96 in the nation (-3).
Not impressed enough with the teams Houston has faced so far this season. There’s a 21.1 percent chance I’m wrong tho, so there’s that. I’ll take BYU by 10+. Looks like AccuScore would too.