Summertime – Kenny Burrell

Nica’s Dream – Art Blakey & the Jazz Messengers

Autumn Leaves – Miles Davis

Young and Foolish – Bill Evans Trio

 

As both the founder and head coach of the Cleveland Browns from 1946 to 1962, Brown led his team to seven championships and a winning percentage of .759.

In 1961, Brown sold most of his share of the team to Art Modell, who later fired Brown in 1963. Brown would never let this go, as he vowed to oppose the AFL for the rest of his career.

Brown got another chance at running a professional franchise in 1966 when James Rhodes, then mayor of Ohio, began discussing a second football team for the state.

Because another Bengals team existed in the city from 1937 – 1942, Brown decided to name the new Cincinnati team the Bengals “to give it a link with past professional football in Cincinnati.”

There was just one more thing for Brown to do. He was clearly not a supporter of the AFL, once saying that “I didn’t pay ten million dollars to be in the AFL.” He only agreed to joining the AFL when he was given a guarantee that the team would become an NFL franchise after the two leagues merged.

I think the first thing I should tell you is that by way of ownership and total operating control I am the man you must deal with. In the final analysis, there is no other. I don’t say this in the spirit of bragging or bulldozing somebody – and I don’t want to think or act like a hard man. I would like to earn the thought from you that I am just and understanding – but you must know from the beginning that there is no way to circumvent the principles on which I stand. - Excerpt from Coach Paul Brown’s opening address of Bengals’ training camp July 15, 1973

Crabtree enjoyed a breakout campaign after the team switched quarterbacks, promoting Colin Kaepernick to the starting unit. Crabtree posted career highs in 2012 including receptions (85), yards (1,105) and touchdowns (nine) and was expected to improve on these totals with a full season of Kaepernick behind center.

Though both Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs and Buccaneers defensive end Da’Quan Bowers returned last season within a year after suffering a similar Achilles injury, both played at less than 100%. Crabtree also plays a position where agility and the ability to quickly cut is more necessary; the team shouldn’t expect an impact season from their former top-10 selection.

But what are the impacts of this injury?

Effect on San Francisco’s 2013 Campaign:

The 49ers are coming off a successful season although they lost the Super Bowl. General manager Trent Baalke and head coach Jim Harbaugh have developed a complete, well rounded roster over the past few seasons but were expected to field their best team in 2013.

At least before this injury.

Baalke upgraded the receiving core this offseason by adding former Raven Anquan Boldin, who despite being on the wrong side of 30, played a spectacular postseason. 2012 1st round pick AJ Jenkins was also expected to contribute as the team’s 3rd or 4th string receiver, but now he’ll be forced into a large role.

Now that Crabtree appears lost for all if not most of the 2013 season, how will it affect their team’s offense? Once Kaepernick gained the starter’s position, he began to look less at tight end Vernon Davis and instead utilized his arm strength to go deep towards Crabtree.

Crabtree’s speed and route ability figured to be a huge dimension of Harbaugh’s offense, but now we should expect Kaepernick to fully utilize shorter, intermediate passes.

Unless Jenkins, Mario Manningham, or rookie 4th round pick Quinton Patton seize this opportunity, Kaepernick may see a crowded field in 2013. In 2012, opposing defenses were frayed as the 49ers’ offense was able to run and pass, but now seemingly with the deep ball removed from their arsenal, teams may be able to stack more defenders in the box against this unit.

The loss of Crabtree definitely will impact the 49ers in 2013.

Effect on Michael Crabtree:

Unfortunately, this isn’t an easy injury for a player to recover from, especially a player that needs to have elite agility and being able to stop and go. Crabtree was one of the best receivers in 2013, enjoying a breakthrough season that was expected to continue in 2013 with a full season of Kaepernick.

The receiver will have to deal with an intense rehab, but he’ll also have to worry about his upcoming contract negotiations. As a former 2009 1st round pick, Crabtree’s contract ran through 2014. However, he was expected to begin negotiations on an extension.

An Achilles injury will sap some of Crabtree’s athleticism and potentially hurt his ability to land a large contract after the 2014 season. He’ll have to impress in the last year of his contract, otherwise he may be left resigning with San Francisco for a one-year, prove it deal.

This injury could result in a loss of millions for the former Texas Tech Raider.

Effect on Fantasy Football:

Crabtree’s breakthrough season finally validated Fantasy Football owners who never gave up hope on the former 1st round pick. After posting his 1st 1,000 yard receiving season (in addition to nine touchdowns), Crabtree was expected to be among the top receivers selected during 2013 Fantasy drafts.

ESPN’s fantasy expert, Matthew Berry, chose Crabtree as his 14th receiver heading into the 2013 season. Crabtree was also Berry’s 39th best overall prospect for this year’s draft, and Crabtree had the potential to break into the elite group that included Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, Cincinnati’s AJ Green, and Dallas’ Dez Bryant.

With Crabtree seemingly removed from draft boards, how will his injury affect the other 49ers offensive players?

While Crabtree was expected to be Kaepernick’s top weapon in 2013, but I doubt we’ll see any significant drop off for San Fran’s QB statistically. Perhaps this injury could be a blessing in disguise for the young signal caller; he’ll have to trust his other options more in order to be successful.

I think the player that will most benefit from this injury will be tight end Vernon Davis. A favorite with previous starting quarterback Alex Smith, Davis slid into the background once Kaepernick took over as he experience a large drop off in his stats:

    Alex Smith Starting (weeks 1-9): 29 rec., 404 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

    Colin Kaepernick Starting (weeks 10-16): 12 rec., 144 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Davis did see an improvement during his three game playoff run, where it appeared that he developed a better sense of rhythm with the new starting quarterback:

    Colin Kaepernick Starting (3 playoff games): 12 rec., 254 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Boldin also appears to somewhat benefit from Crabtree’s injury as he’ll inherently get more targets in 2013. Boldin had a steady 2012 season in Baltimore where he eventually settled as the 2nd wide receiver behind Torrey Smith. Age will probably factor into a somewhat statistical downslide, but he has a chance of matching his 2012 numbers behind a better offense in San Francisco.

The big question mark will be the effect on San Francisco’s younger receivers as neither Jenkins nor Patton have displayed the ability to become difference makers in the professionals. Patton is  a recent draft pick and should be given time to adjust.

However, Jenkins’ inability to play during 2012 raises severe question marks about his future. After being the 30th overall pick in the 2012 draft, he failed to register a reception in three games as a rookie. While there were veterans ahead of him within the organization, the receiver unit was devastated by injuries and his addition would have been welcome.

Crabtree’s injury will allow the team to either showcase Jenkins or admit their mistake. If he fails to get regular snaps, perhaps the learning curve was too high for the former Illinois receiver. I’d stay away from him on draft day, but I’d keep an eye out for him during pre-season and the first few weeks of the regular season for any type of statistical impact.

Back to the NFL Bible

Read full story here.

The quiet off-season isn’t so quiet any more. Although players have returned the same season after such an injury (see Terrell Suggs), I’m not so sure the same expectation is fair in this case.

Niners fans, thoughts? I guess this image captures your sentiments accurately.

After being released by the Green Bay Packers in February, the cornerback/safety was welcomed with a meager market as questions surrounding his durability and his once-great athleticism affected his value. Though those questions will be answered in the 2013 regular season, his track record and veteran presence cannot be ignored as he’ll add experience to a youthful Raiders’ defense.

Woodson was drafted 4th overall in the 1998 NFL Draft and quickly excelled. The former Heisman Trophy winner was named AP Defensive Rookie of the Year and eventually helped Oakland reach Super Bowl XXXVII, though the team fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

As the Oakland franchise began to falter, Woodson’s statics dropped as the defense was suddenly bare of talent. He became a problem in the locker room. He also missed 10 games in 2005 and accumulated just two interceptions through the 2004 and 2005 seasons.

In 2006 Woodson signed the with Packers after they reached a 7-year agreement. His arrival signaled a return to glory for the Green and Gold as the team’s defense became relevant and capable of supporting a strong Brett Favre led offense. Through Woodson’s first four seasons as a Packer he intercepted 28 passes and scored seven touchdowns.

Following his 2009 campaign, where he was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Woodson was a member of the first Packers’ Championship team in over a decade. Despite breaking his collarbone during that game, the team held on to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25 in Super Bowl XLV, giving the former Michigan Alum his first championship since the Wolverine’s 1997 collegiate National Championship.

Despite grabbing seven interceptions in 2011, Woodson began to show signs of slowing down as the Packers’ defensive coordinator Dom Capers began disguising him as a strong safety. 2012 would prove to be Woodson’s worst season up north as another broken collarbone limited him to just seven regular season games and two playoff games.

Though Woodson’s play against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Divisional round wasn’t the only reason why the team failed to advance, his rust allowed opposing quarterback Colin Kaepernick to run rampant over a struggling Packer’s unit. Unable to keep up with the fleet footed quarterback, Woodson and company allowed Kaepernick to break the NFL’s record for rushing yards gained by a quarterback. It appeared that the Packer’s defensive captain’s days in a Green Bay uniform were numbered.

On February 15th, the Packers released Woodson after seven seasons of stellar play. Woodson was met with a shallow market as only a few teams were interested in his services and there were other comparable, younger players available. Until recently, it was believed that contenders like the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants were intrigued with signing the vet, but alas Woodson signed with a rebuilding team.

Reportedly the Broncos offered him the veteran’s minimum ($1.2 million), but Woodson signed for more money and perhaps the chance to return home to Northern California, where the hybrid cornerback-safety holds significant interest in winemaking. Still, it’s disappointing to see a player of Woodson’s caliber chasing extra money instead of another ring.

While I can’t fault a player for returning home, Woodson had an excellent opportunity to play for a team on the verge of a Super Bowl bid. Due to the lack of an opposing threat in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos appear to be the clear favorites to win their division and potentially advance far within the playoffs.

In Denver, Woodson would have entered a competition to start at free safety, as former 2nd round pick Rahim Moore has continually struggled. Woodson could have been a luxury for Broncos’ head coach John Fox in that he could have focused on playing third downs and rushing opposing quarterbacks instead of being relied upon to play all defensive snaps. Now, Woodson will probably beat out incumbent Raiders’ safety Usama Young to start for a team looking at another losing season.

Sure Woodson could have a large locker room impact for his new team, but at what cost? $600 thousand, perhaps as much as $3.1 million if he reaches all of his maximum incentives? While Woodson was released halfway through his mega 5-year, $55 million extension, he still earned over $30 million between 2010 and 2012.

How many more bottles of wine can you buy Woody?

From Oakland’s perspective, Woodson is a much needed presence for a developing team. The Raiders will probably suffer through another excruciating season in the Bay; head coach Dennis Allen could be counting on this decorated player to show the team’s youth the right way through diversity. Woodson also experienced a severe losing drought in Oakland post-Super Bowl, so he can draw on his own experiences and guide new 1st round pick CB DJ Hayden down the right path.

Still, it would have been nice to see the player I affectionately called Woody to have played for another Super Bowl. Now, it looks like he won’t get another chance.

Tony and Tim did a great job in the pick and roll. With Tony coming off and Tim hitting shots. When they’re hitting those, they have to rotate help, it leaves us open. We did a good job of moving the basketball, finding each other, trusting each other. – Spurs Guard Danny Green

Yes, Danny, I’ll say the Spurs did a heck of a job of hitting open jumpers. The Spurs shot nearly 53 percent from the field against the team that’s known for its defense and gritty style.

Anyone who watched the game could see that the Spurs were able to get SO MANY good, open shots because of their ability to get into the lane uncontested. The Grizzlies were forced to help from the edges (wings, corner 3s) and given how well the Spurs execute and move the ball, that is not a recipe for success if you’re Memphis.

We definitely did overhelp. There were times when the help was a little bit too much. We pride ourselves on defense, and we concerned ourselves too much with Tony Parker and trying to double and triple-team him. He was finding guys. – Memphis Grizzlies Guard Mike Conley

So, the question is, how can Memphis turn things around for game 2 and the remainder of the series?

• First, and foremost, do not overhelp. This is easeier said than done but the Grizzlies won’t win a thing if Matt Bonner keeps going 4-6 from beyond the arc. The Spurs hit a franchise-record 14 3-pointers. The Spurs outscored Memphis by 27 points from the 3-point line as Kawhi Leonard went 4-for-5, Matt Bonner 4-for-6 and Danny Green 3-for-6.
• Start games out with a little more fire, please? The Grizzlies came out lethargic in the first quarter of game 1, falling down 31-14 after 12 minutes of play. Although they ultimately won the rebounding battle, the Grizzlies didn’t grab a rebound until almost six minutes into the game. This is the Western Conference Finals, you cannot come out with any lack of urgency.
• Get Zach Randolph going. The Spurs did a phenomenal job on Z-Bo, holding him to just two points on 1-8 shooting. Every time he touched the ball in the post, multiple San Antonio defenders helped off their men slightly to blanket Randolph. Ultimately, the Spurs can do this to Memphis because they don’t possess the outside shooting of a Golden State. Well, no one does, but you get the point. Memphis’ strength is in in the paint. Look at how much attention Randolph gets the moment he puts the ball on the floor (video below). The Grizzlies need to swing the ball more, and look to get it into the post on the second side option. They can’t rely on just dumping it down and expecting Gasol or Randolph to score. The Spurs are too smart and well-coached for that. The only issue I see, which ultimately is a huge problem, is that the Grizzlies just don’t have enough perimeter scoring. If the Spurs are able to contain the Memphis big men, this series is over in 5. Guys like Conley, Bayless, Prince need to hit some shots early to keep the Spurs’ defense honest.

• Last, but not least Memphis, just keep playing and doing what you do. The Grizzlies have now lost game 1 in each of their first three playoff series this post-season. They fell down 0-2 to the Clippers before winning four straight, and they lost game 1 to OKC before winning the next four. Don’t forget, Memphis dropped Game 1 to the Clippers by a score of 112-91. Expect game 2 to be much closer.

Game 2, Tuesday @ San Antonio (9 p.m. ET)

Stephen Curry set a regular-season record of 272 made three-pointers this season. Fortunately, someone compiled them all in one video. Thanks to the creator of the video, and for all your Warriors fans, enjoy the tribute to the league’s next superstar.

Given that it’s been over a year since Rose hurt his ACL, shouldn’t he be suiting up already? Iman Shumpert of the NY Knicks hurt his ACL the same day as Rose, but has been playing for months now.

So our frustration with Rose not playing is justified, right? … Not so fast.

Deng didn’t feel comfortable, so his agent arranged for an outside opinion. And suddenly that day-to-day injury the Bulls couldn’t believe would keep Deng out of action turned into a stress fracture serious enough to require months of rest to heal. Deng didn’t play again that season. He was eventually cleared for basketball activities in July. The Bulls said Deng wasn’t really injured, and told him to play. A different doctor — the correct doctor, in this case — told Deng he was really injured, and that he shouldn’t run, jump or cut on his leg for four months. – SB Nation, Bulls’ History of Letting Players Break Themselves

Even before Thibodeau, who many see as a dictator who kills his guys by overplaying them, the Bulls had issues with players not trusting the staff. There’s a bigger culprit in this situation, and it has nothing to with Thibs and his rotations. He’s simply making the best of the situation, and I’d say doing a heck of a job doing so.

Jerry Reinsdorf, the owner of a reputable Chicago franchise in the country’s third-largest market, has somehow convinced much of the franchise and some members of the media that the Bulls are in a small-market team. Worst of all, Reinsdorf has managed his checkbook to reflect this “Bulls are a small-market team” ideology.

As such, Thibodeau’s skills as a coach actually help hide the fact that the Bulls management is financially way too cautious. He’s able to turn guys like Marquis Teague and Nazr Mohammed into solid role players.

Here’s the scenario: the Bulls are a big circus, and Thibs is the ringmaster. Management gets him to push his guys to the limit, with no regard for the consequences. When it’s time for guys to be paid (Asik, for ex.), the management will just replace them with less talented and cheaper players. Sure, Thibs is able to get a lot out of them, but only because these below-average players need to play that hard just to stay in the league.

You don’t think Thibs would rather have an Asik rather than Mohammed? Reinsdorf and his partner-in-crime, John Paxson (VP of Bball Operations for Bulls), felt that Asik wasn’t worth the money and let him walk. The same goes for losing Kyle Korver, and replacing him with Marco Bellinelli.

With all this said, let’s back to the point at hand – should Rose be playing? The fan and competitor in me says yes, but the facts are plain and simple. The management has been irresponsible by not being the safety net for its coach and players. Jimmy Butler has to play 48 minutes a game because Thibs has no other choice. Kirk Hinrich hasn’t played in a playoff game since playing 60 minutes (OT) against Brooklyn in a first-round game.

Rose hasn’t been pushed by the management to play because they know how important he is to the future of the team; they’re willing to wait a few extra months, knowing he’ll be in impact for years to come. Deng, however, didn’t get the same treatment from management in 2009.

The management has a responsibility to take care of its players. For a team that has had the same issues, even before Thibs was the coach, our expectation to see Rose play might just be a bit ignorant. Look, injuries can happen just walking down the street. But a team’s management has to do everything in its power to prevent such things from happening. The Bulls franchise, with its checkbook guarded by the three-headed monster that is Reinsdorf, Paxson, and Gar Forman, has failed to live up to that obligation.

Similar to Deng in 2009, and Rose in 2013, I’m not sure if I would have enough trust in the franchise to play either.

1. Game of the Year?

Bacardi: Yes and no. I honestly can’t say it’s the definitive game of the year, I haven’t watched as many games as I’d like to, but it’s by far the game of the playoffs. Let’s put it this way, no other NBA game has kept me from writing, but last night I was glued to my seat as my eyes were fixed on the game. As soon as the Spurs scored 8 straight to bring the gap from 16 to 8, I knew they wouldn’t go quietly into the night. I was proven right.

Pirozzi: Yes. I’m sure we’ll see another classic game or two like this one as the playoffs progress, but as of today, yes. From Curry’s third quarter performance to the San Antonio’s comeback at the end of the fourth, this game was a gift to hoops fans. We then got two free periods of basketball … what else could we ask for?!

2. Stephen Curry’s performance was __________.

Bacardi: Comparable to Panda Express’ Orange Chicken. Huh? Don’t get it? Orange Chicken from Panda Express may just be the greatest concoction of food ever created, whichever chef at the Panda Express headquarters who designed this recipe is a genius.

However, the thing about it is that it’s phenomenal but very heavy. So for the first half of the meal, you shovel that shit down and grin with delight. However, as the weight sinks in, you start to feel a bit gross. While I admit I didn’t watch the entire game, it became obvious that Curry was slowed during the 4th Q and overtimes. In fact, according to the shot chart, Curry only made four of his last nine field goals, all makes coming close to the basket. I’m not trying to hate on his game, he scored 44 points and 11 assists while playing every minute of the game.

But the Spurs obviously keyed in on him during the most important part of the game, and the Dubs really missed Klay Thompson over the 15 or so odd minutes (he fouled out). Thompson’s absence forced Golden State to play Richard Jefferson and go bigger than they hoped; it played perfectly into the Spurs’ hands as they were able to strictly focus on Curry. Curry had a lights out game, but it closely resembled Orange Chicken.

Pirozzi: An exercise in futility. I know I’m being the debbie-downer on this one, but what’s a performance like that if you don’t win the game? He had an incredible performance, played nearly 58 minutes, and has very little to show for any of it. What we can agree on is that Curry should have been an all-star because he is now a superstar in the league.

3. Did the Warriors blow it?

Bacardi: Yes and no. Up until the last 10 seconds, I told my roommate that the Warriors lost this game, not that the Spurs won. My reasoning being that they held a huge (16 point) lead over a home team and let it slip; if they lost this game, it would be to allowing their opponent to come back due to bad possessions (the Warriors were horrendous in the last 7 minutes of regulation).

However, you can’t help but to feel bad for Golden State after Ginobili hit that final 3 pointer to take the lead with under 3 seconds left. The Warriors faulted off that inbounds play, but still, how often does that happen? So they did blow it, but they were also unfortunate as Manu could have easily missed that shot.

Pirozzi: Of Course! They blew a 16-point lead with less than five minutes to go. No excuses, that’s one of the biggest end-of-game letdowns I’ve witnessed.

4. What’s your takeaway on the Spurs from game 1?

Bacardi: That they’re a great regular season team, but they have severe problems. They allowed a road team to get hot (especially Curry), and it almost cost them. However, their play directly exposed both of these teams as we learned how valuable experience is in the playoffs. Due to the Spurs prior successes and their style of play (capitalize on opponents errors, don’t turn it over), the Spurs were able to rally despite not increasing the tempo of the game within the last 7 minutes.

Though they won, I almost expect Golden State to win the series. It all depends on how this dramatic loss will affect game 2 as they’ll need to come out guns blazing. The Spurs could be in trouble if they’re unable to lock down Stephen Curry.

Pirozzi: That the Spurs were playing without a healthy Duncan & Splitter and still found a way to win. That patience and experience trump any other factor in a playoff game. That betting against Pop is [which I luckily didn't do], and will always be, a bad decision.

5. How do you see the series shaping up now?

Bacardi: After game 1, I surprisingly see the Warriors beating the Spurs in 6 games. I think the Dubs win the next 3 games and eventually force a game 6 back on their home court. I don’t know why, but I can’t help to pick the upset here, San Antonio looked too vulnerable despite mounting that huge comeback.

Pirozzi: I’m struggling to decide if the Warriors use this loss as motivation or if they fold under the pressure. Most analysts think a young team like this will struggle to get back the momentum they had; I have a bit of faith in Curry still though. He can obviously get his against the Spurs, and wouldn’t be surprised if he kept putting up 30+ for most of the series. Either way, this series won’t go past 6 games. Maybe only 5 now.

AccuScore Preview (Game 1)

The Spurs are solid 76 percent favorites in game 1 vs the Warriors. The Spurs are favored by 8.5 points but the Warriors cover that spread more often than not. The safer bet would be to take the points and Warriors. The total score for the game is set at 201 and has a 62.1 percent chance of going under.

The Warriors have lost 29 straight times in San Antonio. Sheeesh.

Appetizer

Tony Parker vs Stephen Curry. Kawhi Leonard vs Harrison Barnes. Tim Duncan vs Andrew Bogut. ‘Nuff said?

There are a lot of good matchups this series, and the winner will be determined by which team adjusts from quarter to quarter, game to game. In the first round, Steph Curry had some pretty terrible first halves, followed by impressive third quarters. The difference? More off-ball movement in the third, screens getting Curry some easy looks to get going.

It’s all about making adjustments, and whether or not Coach Mark Jackson can keep up with Pop.

Main Course

The always-aging Spurs got a good amount of rest after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers 4-0 in the first round. The question now is – will the rested team prevail, or the other one riding a wave of momentum?

Why the Spurs will win: Coach Pop. It starts and ends there. The Spurs have the outside shooters to counter Golden State’s, and I have much more faith in Pop’s team containing the likes of Jarrett Jack and Draymond Green as opposed to George Karl. In the Warriors’ first round series vs the Nuggets, both Curry and Thompson had long stretches of sub-par shooting; they were able to win those games and the series because guys like Jack, Green, and Barnes stepped up big. I’ve got to assume that Pop will be more prepared for that.

Why the Warriors will win: If the Warriors continue to the shoot the way they have been, no defense can stop it. Curry and Thompson have the capability to make threes from a few feet behind the line, and there’s not much to do against that. Forgetting what’s actually on the court, the home court advantage at Oracle could play a huge role. If the Warriors can steal a game in San Antonio, I’m almost 100% sure they’ll win both back at home (games 3 & 4), largely due to the madhouse that is the Oracle Arena.

Unfortunate News: David Lee says there’s ‘zero’ chance that he could play a significant role for Warriors against Spurs.

Dessert

Season series: Tied 2-2.

Points per game (per 100 possessions): Spurs 103.0 (105.9), Warriors 101.2 (104.2)

Points allowed per game (per 100 possessions): Spurs 96.6 (99.2), Warriors 100.3 (102.6)

OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession) – PLAYOFFS ONLY

San Antonio: Offense 111.0 (1st in the post season), Defense 90.6 (1st in the post season)

Golden State: Offense 107.7 (5th in the post season), Defense 102.4 (9th in the post season)

Series Prediction

This one’s tougher to pick than I anticipated – the Spurs could easily take this in 5 games, but the Warriors are going to be playing with a whole lot of confidence. And that’s all a shooter like Curry (or Thompson) needs. Confidence. I think the Warriors steal game 2, and the Spurs even it back up in game 4.

Spurs in 6

AccuScore Preview (Game 1)

The Thunder are solid 72.1 percent favorites to win today’s game 1 matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. OKC covers the -3.5 spread over 62 percent of the time. If you’re looking at the over/under, the [slightly] safer bet would be to take the under on 186.

Appetizer

Let’s get straight to the point – with Russell Westbrook out with a torn meniscus, can OKC get enough consistent offense? We know KD will get his, but there needs to be a second scorer. The Grizz forced a Clipper team that averages 101 pts/game to average just 94 per game in the first round.

For OKC, the key this series will be how they defend Zach Randolph. The games will start out with Serge Ibaka on him, playing 1-on-1, with no double. The Thunder have been moving Kevin Durant to the 4 as the game progresses and that could be a huge problem this series. The best solution? Stop Z-bo from getting to his sweet spots, focus more on a preemptive strike to defend him than reacting to his moves.

Main Course

With Russell Westbrook out, expect Mike Conley to continue his stellar playoff play. Conley averaged 17.3 points, 8.3 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game against the Clips in the first round. Most importantly, his assist-to-turnover ration has been nearly twice as good in the playoffs as it was in the regular season.

Forcing turnovers will determine much more than just how Conley plays. If he’s not committing turnovers, it’s a sign that he is easily being able to feed the post. If, however, there’s extra pressure on Conley on the perimeter, he subsequently has a much tougher chance to get the ball into the Memphis bigs. Keep an eye out for Conley’s turnovers, or rather, the lack thereof.

The burden will ultimately be on Kevin Durant. We know he’s the best player on the court, and he has to come out and show that. The Grizzlies aren’t much of an offensive team, and knowing that, KD can keep carry the offensive load in a series like this. The more efficiently he scores (he shot just 11-28 the last time they met), the more the floor opens up, letting his teammates get some easy buckets.

Random Fact: Hasheem Thabeet, the Grizzlies’ once-prized possession [sarcasm], is now the backup Center for the Thunder. Could we potentially see the Thabeet-revenge series?

Dessert

Season series: Grizzlies won 2-1.

Points per game (per 100 possessions): Thunder 105.7 (110.2), Grizzlies 93.4 (101.7).

Points allowed per game (per 100 possessions): Thunder 96.5 (99.2), Grizzlies 89.3 (97.4).

Series Prediction

An intelligent and very important person, whose name I forget, once said that opinions must be flexible; new data and information can and should lead to a change of opinion. Before the playoffs started, I thought OKC would repeat as the champs of the West. After the Westbrook injury, I’m taking Memphis, both in the series and to win the west.

Grizz in 6

“It would be one thing if Pete was a constant problem. But this is his 28th year in baseball, and they’re treating him like a convict.” - Third baseman Buddy Bell

The suspension occurred as a result of what happened in a game between the Reds and the New York Mets on April 30, 1988. In the top of the ninth, Pallone (umpire) hesitated on a call at first before ruling that first baseman Nick Esasky had his leg off the bag. The call allowed Howard Johnson to score what ended up being the winning run in a 6-5 victory for the Mets.

During the argument between Pallone and Rose, Pallone unintentionally hit Rose’s face with his finger; Rose retaliated with a “forearm shiver”. The crowd of 41,032 at Riverfront Stadium joined in the action by throwing trash onto the field. After about a 15-minute delay, Pallone was forced to leave the field and the other three umps finished calling the game.

“For forcefully and deliberately shoving an umpire, the manager of the Reds, Mr. Pete Rose, is suspended for 30 days and fined a substantial amount.” - National League president A. Bartlett Giamatti

The Bible – A team by team look at each division, ranking each team by their predicted finish in 2013. Each team is profiled including a review of their 2012 campaign, diagnosing their 5 positional strengths, and previewing the upcoming draft and what directions they’ll likely head in with their first few selections.

• AFC East Edition – 4.11
• AFC North Edition – 4.17
• AFC South Edition- 4.18
• AFC West Edition – 4.24

• NFC East Edition – 4.11
• NFC North Edition – 4.16
• NFC South Edition – 4.18
• NFC West Edition – 4.23

Offseason Moves & News

• The Michael Crabtree Achilles Injury: The Impact | The Story – 5.22
• Charles Woodson Rejoins Oakland with 1-Year Deal – 5.22
• This Nassib Candidate, or Why the Bills are Going to F*ck up the Draft – 4.24
• Thoughts on the Revis Trade – 4.23

Mock Drafts:  see the progression…

• This is the End: Final Mock- 4.24
  
• Pre-Draft Mock: Mock to the Future Part VI -
  • Mock to the Future: Picks 1-16 – 4.22
    
  • Mock Harder: Picks 17-32 – 4.23
    
  • End of the Mock: Picks 33-60 – 4.24
• Post Free Agency, V5 - 3.31
• Pre Free Agency, V4 – 3.4
  • 1st round, Picks 1-16 - 3.4
  • 1st round, Picks 17-32 – 3.5
  • 2nd round, Picks 30-62 – 3.6
• Mock Draft Part Tres! - 12.21.12
• Mock Draft 2 – 11.5
• The 1st 2013 Mock Draft – 10.25
  

High Upside, Baiting Draft Stock:

• Defensive Ends: Ezekiel Ansah & Margus Hunt – 4.17
• Offensive Lineman: Menelik Watson & Kyle Long – 4.19

Free Agency: Three Takeaways from the 1st week of Free Agency - 3.21

• The Cornerback & Pass Rush Market: Time are Rough in this Economy – 3.21
• Wide Receivers in Free Agency: Teams Engage in Mad Grab for Youth - 3.22
• Hold up… the Ravens are Rebuilding?: Why It’s a Smart Decision - 3.23

ReDrafts

• The 2010 ReDraft – 4.19
• The 2009 ReDraft – coming soon

Opening Statement

It all started one random, week day night when I stumbled upon one of the greatest sports sites. Chronicled in an amazing story that was posted before the Super Bowl, ESPN Magazine ran an mesmerizing article about the difficult process former San Francisco 49er Head Coach Bill Walsh underwent in writing his book, Finding the Winning Edge. However, during that same period of time, I found actual several online passages from the legend himself.

Back in the infancy of the internet, Sportsxchange posted some of the most brilliant, poignant work from the former head coach. If you have half an hour, I highly recommend reading these works. One article in particular stood out, “If I Had to Start From Scratch…” in which Walsh claims that every successful team has the same or similar characteristics in terms of talent:

1. Quarterback.
2. Pass Rusher
3. Safety
4. Running back.
5. Receiver.

While his analysis makes perfect sense given the time of these articles (the heyday of the 90′s Cowboys, both the Packers and 49ers had recently won Super Bowls with similarly talented rosters), these positions have ceased to remain the most important in the modern league. While I would argue that having a franchise quarterback is the most vital to a team’s success, it seems as though running backs are now more products of teams’ successes instead of the cause of a team’s success. Don’t believe me? What were the best rushing teams of 2013:

1. Washington (2709)
2. Minnesota (2634)

Past three Super Bowl winners:
2012: Baltimore (11th, 1901)
2011: NY Giants (32nd, 1427)
2010: Green Bay (24th, 1606)

So while it doesn’t hurt to be elite in rushing (Seattle & San Francisco finished 3rd and 4th), the league’s top two teams both qualified but failed to win a playoff game in 2013. None of the past three Super Bowl winners were elite in rushing, with the Giants being the worst running offense when they won it all in 2012. Instead of needing an elite running back, I believe that a strong offensive line is more important for long term success.

Walsh claims that while you can build an offensive line through multiple drafts and signees, its more important to focus on positions where acquiring a lone talent can instantly boost your position set. I would beg to differ as football (now more than ever) starts in the trenches. If you fail to have a capable offensive line (Arizona Cardinals), the offense will become unstable.

Having an elite pass protection limits exposure to your quarterback, thus keeping your signal caller playing on Sundays. And while Adrian Peterson makes his offensive line better, a running back can’t bust long runs if he doesn’t have open holes created by his linemen.

I would maintain that having a consistent, above average pass rush is also a necessity in the current day of professional football. In recent memory, the Giants, Packers and Saints all peaked once their pass rush consistently performed. While I would state that the Giants were the lone elite pass rushers in recent Super Bowl memory, both the Packers and Saints were more successful once their pass rushers got hot. This enabled their defenses to pressure opposing quarterbacks and allow their offenses more time to drive.

In addition to my claim for pass rushers, I would also argue that the safety position is no longer a needed strength. While the two teams that played in this year’s Super Bowl had either average safeties (Baltimore, Ed Reed & Bernard Pollard/San Francisco, Dashon Goldson & Donte Witner), I would argue that three of these players don’t qualify as being elite (Goldson would be the exception). Instead I would argue that having a shutdown corner back is a bigger need due to the size and strength of modern wide receivers and tight ends.

For the modern state of the league, I would argue that the quarterback is by far the most important with pass rushers a distant second. For 3-5, it would have to vary based off skill and scheme. My list would resemble something on the lines of this:

1. Quarterback.
2. Pass Rusher
– Offensive Line
– Corner Back
– Receiver

If you were starting with a brand new franchise with you ability to build a new base, these five groups should be your targeted positions. However, I agree with what Walsh states at the end of his article, “I’ll take the five that I’ve been dealt and build my team around them.” So if you don’t happen to have an elite cornerback and instead have an amazing middle linebacker, your team can still become dangerous and elite.

These Bill Walsh articles inspired me to examine the league as a whole, identify each teams’ strengths and weakness, diagnosis their potential draft, and finally predict how their 2013 season will play out. This Football Bible will run through the end of training camp, all the way until the start of the season, so check in periodically for additional posts.

courtesy of blog.oregonlive.com

See you on the field.

“The X Games have grown significantly and has been enjoyed by millions of fans over the past 10 years in Los Angeles… As we embark on a year of significant global expansion and transformation for X Games in 2013, (we) look forward to identifying our next host city for the X Games,” remarked Scott Guglielmino, the senior VP president, programming, and of X Games at ESPN.

The announcement has been met by disappointment from the Los Angeles community as the city has hosted the summer games for the last 10 years, starting in 2003. Highlights have included Travis Pastrana’s landing the first ever double backflip on a dirt bike in 2006 and Bob Burnquist claiming his fourth Big Air gold medal in the skateboard category in 2012.

It appears as though the uncertain future of AEG, the large Los Angeles-based entertainment conglomerate that owns the Staples Center among other various LA sports properties, created the possibility of the city abandoning the games.

The X Games band has made stars out of athletes including skateboarders Shaun White, Ryan Sheckler, and Jake Brown while also bringing attention to established veterans like BMX specialists Mat Hoffman and Dave Mirra, Big Air skater Danny Way, and motorcross racer Ricky Carmichael.

The games originated in 1995 and were held Rhode Island and Vermont. Initially called the Extreme Games, nearly 200,000 fans attended the event with that figure growing each year. By 2001 it became clear that a larger venue would be needed, which led to the migration of Los Angeles (specifically the Downtown area featuring both Staples Center & the LA Coliseum).

The X Games were developed by the cable network for their exclusive broadcast, which has developed over the nearly two decade run on their channels. Now, the X Games will expand to six different global locations, giving fans across the world the opportunity to watch their favorite action sports up close and live.

According to a 2009 study by the SportsBusiness Journal, the X Games annually creates more than $120 million in retail from its consumers and licenses. ESPN’s coverage also allows the network to stimulate their priority demographic, the highly profitable 12-34 male television watchers.

Originally, sports spreading from mountain climbing, to street luging, to wakeboarding and even bungee jumping were part of the adrenaline-infused schedule. Eventually, prior to the 2008 games, surfing was dropped to make four separate sections: motocross, skateboarding, BMX, rally racing.

The X Games also splintered into two seasonal factions: summer (annually held in Los Angeles) and winter (home to Aspen, CO since 2005). Now that Los Angeles will no longer host the games, either Austin, Charlotte, Chicago or Detroit stands to win the right to host ESPN’s premier action sports programming for 2014.

Can you imagine Pedro Barros thrashing up the scenic downtown parks of Detroit?

Each of these four cities have been named finalist as ESPN has shaved down the nine qualifying bids. Los Angeles neighborhoods Pasadena and Long Beach each placed separate bids, but both areas failed to advance in the process.

So if you’re an annual spectator of the X Games and love action sports, 2013 could prove to be the last time to witness these death defying tricks outside Staples Center. This year also marks the first time in the X Games’ history of having an expanded schedule.

Cable sports watchers may have caught the recent coverage of the X Games in Brazil where ESPN brought the games to Foz do Iguaçu. The games previously stopped in Tignes, France from March 20th-22nd, marking the fourth time the X Games have partaken in Europe.

Before the X Games 19 lands in Los Angeles from August 1st – 4th, fans can catch further competition as Barcelona, Spain hosts them from May 16th – 19th, and then in Munich, Germany from June 27th – 30th.

This will be our central page for coverage, so whether it’s game previews, truths & rumors, statistical analysis, betting odds, or picks from the Metta team, make sure to check in periodically for new posts.

Previews:

Second Round Previews:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (5)
• San Antonio Spurs (2) vs Golden State Warriors (6)

Tuesday, April 23rd:

• Golden State Warriors (6) at Denver Nuggets (3) Game Two
• Boston Celtics (7) at New York Knicks (2)

Monday, April 22nd:

• Chicago Bulls (5) at Brooklyn Nets (4)
• Memphis Grizzlies (5) at Los Angeles Clippers (4) GAME TWO

Sunday, April 21st:

• Milwaukee Bucks (8) at Miami Heat (1)
• Atlanta Hawks (6) at Indiana Pacers (3)
• Houston Rockets (8) at Oklahoma City Thunder (1)
• Los Angeles Lakers (7) at San Antonio Spurs (2)

Saturday, April 20th:

• Boston Celtics (7) at New York Knicks (2)
• Chicago Bulls (5) at Brooklyn Nets (4)
• Golden State Warriors (6) at Denver Nuggets (3)
• Memphis Grizzlies (5) at Los Angeles Clippers (4)

]]> http://mettachronicles.com/2013-nba-playoffs/feed/ 0 http://mettachronicles.com/quick-response-to-broussards-anti-gay-comments/ http://mettachronicles.com/quick-response-to-broussards-anti-gay-comments/#comments Tue, 30 Apr 2013 15:42:06 +0000 Rohit Ghosh http://mettachronicles.com/?p=5097 In case you missed it, NBA player Jason Collins came out publicly this past weekend about his homosexuality. In response, many athletes around the country stood up (mostly on Twitter) in support of this statement. While we should be past all this making headlines in 2013, we live in a society that still has certain issues, and this is obviously one of them. Nevertheless, I, along with the team here at Metta Chronicles, would like to commend Collins for doing what he felt was right. Him being a L.A. native (Northridge), there’s definitely a bit of pride.

I don’t want to focus on my opinion on this issue, or even what Collins did; I, rather, want to shine the spotlight on the sadness that is Chris Broussard (NBA Analyst/Reporter for ESPN). After Collins came out, Broussard went on a rant, essentially saying that being gay is a sin.

Really? Did we really need another reason to not like Broussard? The sin is that ESPN still employs this fool.

I don’t care if you have an opinion on homosexuality being a sin, that’s your right. But understand the repercussions of your statements. You don’t have to agree with what someone does, but that doesn’t mean you have to oppose it publicly. This isn’t your fight, Broussard. This has nothing to do with religion or sins or anything close to that. All this has to do with is the right to be one self.

Metta World Peace, formerly known as Ron Artest, said on ESPN 710 radio yesterday that this was great for Collins because it gets rid of “unnecessary stress”. He added that you never want what you are to keep you sleepless at night; be proud of who you are, and that acceptance will ultimately lead to a better state of mind.

If crazy Ron Artest can be so understanding, what is Broussard smokin’?! Plus, the Bible does say, “Do not judge, and you will not be judged. Do not condemn, and you will not be condemned.”

Again, this has nothing to do with homosexuality, or anyone’s opinions on it. I do think that Broussard has the right to voice his opinions, and so does Collins. Collins understood the weight of this situation, and as a result, it took him years, maybe decades, before he felt comfortable coming out.

When I carefully look at what Broussard says, he seems to be more upset that Collins is Christian and gay. During his tirade, he said:

If you’re openly living in unrepentant sin, whatever it may be, not just homosexuality, whatever it maybe, I believe that’s walking in open rebellion to God and to Jesus Christ. So I would not characterize that person as a Christian because I don’t think the bible would characterize them as a Christian.

Broussard needed to have the same sort of recognition to this situation, and voice his opinions appropriately. Like, keep it to himself. Or wait at least more than a day to bash Collins publicly. My problem is the lack of recognition and sympathy for the situation, not necessarily his opinion (which he is entitled to).

I could go on and on about this, and ultimately, it would be even more repetitive than it already is. Most of us who hear about this story won’t be able to understand how someone could even think the way Broussard does; others, those in support of him, won’t be able to comprehend how someone could be gay and live with it.

Fortunately, as the years go on, there are fewer and fewer Broussards. And for now, all we can do is continue to support Jason Collins, and hope that one day, maybe it won’t be a sin to be who you are.

This video is one of the most unique I have ever seen. The Dolomite scenes and ODB’s superimposed face were genius! The video is hilariously creative and definitely one of the best during this era.

1. Denver – Head Coach John Fox (3rd season), 2012: 13-3 (1st in division, lost in AFC Divisional Game), VP of Player Personnel: John Elway

The addition of Peyton Manning has already paid off, and things should only get better for their offense as Manning continues to adjust post neck surgery. They let a win slip away this past postseason, but they should remain a threat until he retires. The loss of a coordinator like McCoy would normally most team’s offensive outputs, but because Manning is such a general on the field, I expect them to not skip a beat in 2013. The defensive is arguably their strong point as they have great ability to get after opposing quarterbacks, while allows the corners to use their playmaking abilities for turnovers. The Broncos should continue to dominate the West for the near future. Look for management & John Elway to target more options for Manning and add more pieces to their secondary in the 2013 draft, I don’t expect the franchise to be players in free agency.

1. Quarterback – Peyton Manning (16th): Manning instantly made the offense credible, but it should be pointed out that even Tim Tebow was able to lead this team (still much intact now) to a playoff victory. Regardless, Manning has been a gigantic upgrade over Tebow and will continue to improve with more time given his recovery from four neck surgeries. Manning represents one of the strongest growths in Expected Points Added (EPA) from a franchise over a two season mark. As long as Manning is a Bronco, this team will be competitive.

2. Outside Linebacker: Von Miller (3rd): Originally I had this listed as pass rushers (plural) as Elvis Dumervil was still on the team. However, after the Faxgate 2013, the team must look to add another compliment to Miller. While Miller’s only been in the league for two seasons, he’s arguably the best outside linebacker in the NFL. He already has 30 career sacks, and looked strong with 18.5 this past year. The scary thought is, is that he’ll only get better.

3. Wide Receivers – Demaryious Thomas (4th), Eric Decker (4th), Wes Welker* (10th): Thomas and Decker are invaluable weapons for Manning, and both should only improve over time. Heading into just their 4th seasons, Thomas has already been to the Pro Bowl while Decker has become a reliable option for Manning on third downs. They’re the new Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey, but younger and faster.I still can’t believe they signed Welker; he’ll give Manning a weapon he hasn’t had since he was healthy in 2011 with Austin Collie.

4. Offensive Line – LT Ryan Clady (5th), LG Zane Beadles (4th), C JD Walton (4th), RG Louis Vazquez* (5th), RT Orlando Franklin (3rd): They retained Clady with the franchise tag, but he deserves a long term contract. Great interior play led by Walton and Beadles, but the right side of their line has dramatically improved given the signing of Vazquez. Not only was Vazquez the 2nd ranked guard in this year’s free agent market, but they stole him from division rival San Diego. Overall, this is a very impressive unit and should be able to contain opponent’s pass rush next season.

5. Cornerback – Champ Bailey (15th), Chris Harris (3rd), Tony Carter (5th): Bailey is still a great cover player and combined with Harris and Carter, create one of the league’s best corner trios. SS Raheem Moore’s play throughout 2012 raised questions to if he’s the safety of the future in Denver, they could look to bring in competition this offseason.

Draft: The Broncos could head in multiple directions come late April; John Elway appears to have no set agenda for adding players to his roster. They should invest in a young pass rusher to pair with Miller, perhaps Tank Carradine or Alex Okafor could be available in the late 1st. In my latest Mock Draft, I have them selecting Carradine’s former teammate at Florida State, Bjoern Werner. I then follow that pick by drafting UCLA’s Jonathan Franklin, who would give Denver a three-down back who could protect Manning on crucial third down passing plays. I would also expect them to target a cornerback to eventually replace stalwart Champ Bailey. The main priority of this draft will be to add more depth to a team that’s in contention for the Super Bowl in 2014; Elway is in full win mode as long as he has Manning on his roster.

2. Kansas City – Head Coach Andy Reid (1st season), 2012: 2-14 (4th in division), GM John Dorsey

Though the Chiefs finished just 2-14, former general manager Scott Pioli built a talented roster that sent five players to the Pro Bowl in 2012. However, the one story line from this franchise may be the shocking murder-suicide of Jovan Belcher in early December. Pioli never created a dynasty, while former coach Romeo Crennel got the boot as well as owner Lamar Hunt decided it was time to rebuild. In are GM John Dorsey (formerly the Packers’ head of scouting) and new head coach Andy Reid.

Offensively, the struggles started at the quarterback position where Matt Cassel finally proved that he should be a backup in this league. Cassel completed just 58% of his passes before being benched for Brady Quinn, who didn’t fare any better (56%). The receiving core was plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, and their line gave up 40 sacks to opposing defenses. The lone bright spot for the team was Jamaal Charles and the run game, as the speedy Charles came back from an ACL injury caused in 2011. Charles roared to a career high 1,500+ rushing yards but was only able to add a total of 6 TDs.

Defensively, the Chiefs’ cupboard is stocked as Pioli and Crennel assembled a talented unit. Their pass rush is already one of the strongest in the league, but their defensive line should finally provide them with ample protection. Dorsey has already improved his secondary by adding talented veterans Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson to share the responsibilities at cornerback. While the Chiefs should be disappointed in their 2012, they have plenty to look forward to in 2013 as their team should be competitive once again.

1. Pass Rushing Outside Linebackers – Tamba Hali (8th) & Justin Houston (3rd): This young duo still has plenty to prove as either one has yet to win a playoff game, but production is certainly there. These two combined for 19 sacks in 2012, and Hali already has 62.5 in his short career. Hali and Houston should be locked into the ROLB & LOLB positions for the next several years, no need to change the personnel.

2. Secondary – CBs Brandon Flowers (6th), Sean Smith* (5th), Dunta Robinson* (10th), Javier Arenas (4th), SS Eric Berry (4th), FS Kendrick Lewis (4th): A lof big names in this group, but also a lot of untapped potential. Cornerback became a serious concern this offseason after the team failed to resign Brandon Carr in 2012; Dorsey got great value deals on both Smith & Robinson, who should both be starters in 2013. Flowers remains the leader of the corners, he led the team in interceptions with 3 last year. I would like to see more production from Eric Berry. Coming out of college, it was assumed that he’d be the next physical gifted safety to emerge. Production has been limited due to injuries, but he intercepted just one pass in 2012.

3. Running Back - Jamaal Charles (6th): As stated in the intro, Charles may have been the team’s MVP in 2012. Not only did he defy the odds of successfully returning post an ACL injury (Adrian Peterson?), but he put up career numbers despite playing against teams that would stack 8 men inside the box on defense. Charles rivals Tennessee’s Chris Johnson as the fastest player in the league, hopefully his touchdown numbers improve this upcoming season along with his offensive line.

4. Wide Receivers – Dwayne Bowe (7th), Johnathan Baldwin (3rd), Donnie Avery (6th), Dexter McCluster (4th): Though they’re somewhat under performers, they definitely don’t lack talent. Bowe was signed to a monster contract this offseason, how it’s time for him to prove he’s worth every penny of that five year, $56 million deal. He’ll finally play in a West Coast Offense, a system which Reid is an expert on. Bowe has the ability to dominate a game, but he needs to be motivated to do so. Bowe’s best season came in 2010 (72 receptions/1,162 yards/15 TDs) when the team last made the playoffs. I want to know if Baldwin can play in the NFL; Pioli thought he was as talented as both AJ Green and Julio Jones in the 2011 Draft. Baldwin has just 579 career receiving yards and 9 starts to his name.

5. Quarterback – Alex Smith (9th): We will see if Kansas City got a great deal in the trade they made for Smith. On one hand, when playing for a smart head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and protected by an outstanding offensive line, Smith plays like a Pro Bowler (2011/12). However, the same quarterback has played like absolute dog sh*t when playing for a defensive minded coach or with bad protection (2005-2010). Kansas City arguably has more talent than the pre-2011 49ers, and Reid is a significantly better coach than Mike Singletary or Mike Nolan, but do you really believe Smith will perform like he’s played in the last 25 regular season games (19-5-1 record, almost 5,000 passing yards, 30:10 TD to INT ratio)?

Draft: The Chiefs hold the first overall pick in the 2013 draft and will have a golden opportunity to add a can’t miss prospect to a team that already holds a lot of talent. Surprisingly, the Chiefs have drafted fairly well over the past seasons, just look at their secondary where three players alone came from the 2010 draft. Still, this is a new management regime, and changes are expected. Overall, I expect Dorsey to fix his offensive line (probably either tackles Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher at 1) and to compliment his offense with more skill players. Besides Charles and Bowe, no one should scare opposing defensive coordinators. As far as defensive needs, the team will need to find a replacement for Belcher; ILB Derrick Johnson is now 31 and could use a young compliment next to him in their lineup.

3. San Diego – Head Coach Mike McCoy (1st season), 2012: 7-9 (2nd in division), GM Tom Telesco

In 2012, the Chargers continued on their middling ways as the team again produced an underwhelming and uninspiring 7-9 campaign. Plagued by injuries and bad coaching decisions, the Chargers stumbled during the mid section of their schedule, losing seven of eight games to knock them out of playoff contention early. Despite the rallying cries to motivate his team, this season ultimately cost head coach Norv Turner his job as he was relieved of coaching duties by owner Alex Spanos. The Spanos family also fired long time general manager AJ Smith and brought in the package duo of GM Tom Telesco & new coach Mike McCoy to lead the franchise into the future.

But what future did the team display in 2012? A dull, motionless season that saw a once proud organization beat rivals Oakland and Kansas City twice to compile four of their victories (those teams are picking 1st and 3rd in the draft). There are many questions to be asked of this average team, as the time has now come to ask the question: Is it time to rebuild? Quarterback Philip Rivers enjoyed a solid year despite not answering critic’s questions of whether he truly is an elite player. Once again, running back Ryan Matthews suffered through injury concerns and missed 1,000 yards. Defensively, the unit is in shambles as half of their secondary has been replaced and they’ll be without former starting OLB Shaun Phillips, who remains unsigned. I wish I could say the future is bright in San Diego, but it looks like locals should enjoy the pleasant weather and sandy beaches of Mission Beach instead of attending games on Sunday in 2013.

1. Receivers: TE Antonio Gates (11), WR Malcom Floyd (8), Danario Alexander (4), Vincent Brown (3rd): Well, this group isn’t what it used to be when Gates and former Charger Vincent Jackson dominated opposing secondaries, but they’re still one of the best units on this team. Predictably, Gates’ play has slipped due to age, but he still recorded 7 TDs last year. Malcom Floyd, formerly in Jackson’s shadow, proved he’s little more than a 2nd wide receiver in this league as he recorded a solid but unspectactular 56 receptions, 814 yards and 5 TDs. The X-factor of this group is Alexander, who was signed midseason admid knee concerns. In just 7 starts, the former Ram record a ridiculous 37/658/7 line while averaging 17.8 yards per catch.

2. Defensive Line: DEs Corey Liuget (3rd) & Kendall Reyes (2nd), NT Cam Thomas (4th): This could become one of the better 3-4 defensive lines in all of football as this group has the youth and talent to develop within the next season or two. Led by former 1st round pick Liuget, the ends have had surprising success at getting after quarterbacks. Liuget recorded 50 tackles and 7 sacks in 2012, while rookie Reyes recorded 5.5 sacks of his own in only 4 starts. Thomas is relatively unproven, but he’s a big body (6’3, 330 lbs) and should have the girth to handle multiple blockers at nose tackle.

3. Quarterback: Philip Rivers (10th): Rivers is one of the most perplexing quarterbacks in the league. He’s shown the ability to make plays and play through bad injuries, but his play has left something to be desired the last few seasons. His ability to produce and lead his team has shown a severe drop off in wins. Don’t believe me?

•     Rivers 2009 – Record: 13-3 65.3% comp, 4250 passing yards, 28 TDs 9 INT
•     Rivers 2010 – Record: 9-7 66% comp, 4700+ passing yards, 30 TDs 13 INT
•     Rivers 2011 – Record: 8-8 62.9% comp, 4600+ passing yards, 27 TDs 20 INT
•     Rivers 2012 – Record 7-9 64% comp, 3600+ passing yards, 26 TDs 15 INT

While he misses Jackson and Gates, Rivers’ drop in passing yards from 2011 to 2012 is staggering. His completion percentage actually grew, but his passes were shorter causing fewer 1st downs. Maybe something’s wrong with his arm…

4. Free Safety: Eric Weddle (7th): Weddle is arguably this team’s best player, and it’s too bad he’s playing on such a mediocre team. Home grown after being a 2nd round pick in 2007, Weddle has blossomed into one of the best safeties in the league. He’s made three consecutive All-Pro teams (2010-12) and recorded 5 total takeaways in last year. In 2011, he showed his ball hawking ability by plucking 7 interceptions. He’s under contract for the next three seasons, hopefully he remains in San Diego for the near future.

5. Linebackers: LOLB Melvin Ingram (2nd), RILB Donald Butler (4th), ROLB Jarret Johnson (11th): This is an ecclectic mixture of production, experience, and potential as each of these three players have their own unique ability that they bring to the Chargers’ defense. Johnson, the veteran of the group, is a strong run defender but is getting up there in age (31) and has considerably slowed over the past few seasons. Butler, a former 3rd round pick, has flourished in extended playing time. Butler totaled 77 tackles in 2012 but is strong in coverage, making him the lone three down linebacker on this team. Ingram was drafted just last April, but had a disappointing rookie campaign as he sacked only one quarterback in 2012. I expect him to continue to develop this year, expect him to be closer to double digit sacks as his playing time increases due to the loss of Phillips.

Draft: The Chargers are in the no-man’s land of the 1st round. They pick 11th overall, but may miss the opportunity to land a top left tackle (Joeckel, Fisher, Lane Johnson) if no one slips out of the top 10. They’re a prime candidate to trade out of their pick, whether it’s up to the middle of the top 10 get said tackle, or further back in the draft to acquire more talent. This is a loaded draft, and whomever has more picks between 15 to 60 stands to get skilled players. Besides their offensive line (which also has to replace former LG Louis Vasquez), I would expect the team to target another cornerback and potentially another pass rusher. Offensively, I don’t think it’s time to fully give up on Rivers, but it might be time to draft a developmental quarterback. McCoy has been successful developing QBs in the past (Jake Delhomme, Tim Tebow) to thrive in his system, I don’t see why it would be any different in San Diego.

4. Oakland – Head Coach Dennis Allen (2nd year), 2012: 4-12 (3rd in division) General Manager Reggie McKenzie

To say it nicely, it was a learning year in 2012 for the Oakland Raiders. In the first year removed from Al Davis, the team struggled to just four wins, with all of them coming against non-playoff teams. In fact, the team went 3-0 against the Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, the two teams that will pick 1st and 2nd during the NFL Draft. Offensively, the team struggled to find an identity as neither the run or the pass played consistentantly. Star running back failed to maintain his health as he was limited to 12 games, finished another season under 1,000 rushing yards (barely over 700 to be exact). While quarterback Carson Palmer (no longer with the team) played admirably limited receiving threats, his statistics show an average season for a NFL starting quarterback: 61.6% completion, 4,000+ passing yards and a mediocre 22-14 TD-to-INT ratio.

The team also struggled on defense as the group failed to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The team only collected 25 sacks as a whole, or only 4.5 more than Texan’s defensive end JJ Watt accumulated during the entire 2012 season. The unit also failed to force quarterbacks into bad decisions as they only totaled 11 interceptions on the season. However, not all hope is lost for this team as 2012 was the begining of their serious rebuilding project. General manager Reggie McKenzie knows how to build a team from his time spent as the Packers’ former director of player personnel. I won’t go as far as to say that this organization has a bright future, afterall they are the Oakland Raiders and have failed to reach the playoffs in over a decade. However, there’s no way to go but up from here.

1. Offensive Line: LT Jared Veldheer (4th), LG Tony Bergstrom (2nd), C Stefen Wisniewski: Well if there’s any indication of how dire the situation in Oakland is, a prime example is the placement of their offensive line on this list. They finished just 24th in Pro Football Outsider’s 2012 season rankings, but these three players are still young and adjusting to Greg Knapp’s Zone Blocking System. Veldheer is on the verge of becoming one of the better left tackles in the entire league, but have you seen this photo of him taken earlier this offseason? I liked Wisniewski coming out of college, he’s got a great pedigree and should be a mainstay along Oakland’s offensive line for years to come.

2. Strong Safety: Tyvon Branch (6th): Branch had just one interception in 2012 and only has 4 in his career, but he’s a typical in-the-box strong safety is relied upon to make tackles instead. In his five year career, Branch has already accumulated 328 solo tackles, but what’s more alarming is his 100 assisted tackles. That shows that he’s the only one taking down the ball carrier.

3. Running Back: Darren McFadden (6th): So a running back who holds only one 1,000 yard season (in 2010) comes in as a team’s best offensive playmaker? This could be a rough season for the Raiders’ offense if they can’t properly adjust to the ZBS running system.

4. Linebackers: SLB Nick Roach* (7th), MLB Kaluka Maiava* (5th), WLB Kevin Burnett* (9th): Raiders fans, meet the all new (but not improved) starting linebackers for 2013! All three of these players have been brought in, and both Roach and Maiava have been backups. Roach has shown potential while substituting for the oft injured Brian Urlacher in Chicago while Maiava’s career never quite got off the ground in Cleveland, where he was often lost in the constant defensive scheme transitions. Burnett actually played well in 2012, but he’s at the tail end of his career and can only be relied upon for another season or two.

5. Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski (14th): The only special teams player to make ANY positional rank for the entire Bible, we have officially reached the bottom of the barrell. The barrell that Janikowki finished back in 2003. While he’s more of a name at this point in his career, the lifelong Raider made 91.2% of his field goal attempts in 2012 and drilled 6 of 9 from beyond 50 yards. He’s getting up there in age, but he’s still got a leg.

Draft: Unfortunately for the Raiders, they’re missing their 2nd round pick due to the disastrous Carson Palmer trade of 2011. For a team lacking depth or talent, that trade could come back to haunt the organization if the new regime is unable to trade down from the 3rd overall pick to gain more selections. Assuming they keep their 1st round pick, I expect the Raiders to draft a lineman, either an first-class left tackle (if Fisher or Joeckel were to fall) or grab one of the two elite defensive tackles. Due to the emergence of Veldheer, I would think McKenzie would be more interested in either of the defensive tackles Utah’s Star Lotulelei or Florida’s Shariff Floyd. In my final mock draft, I have them taking Lotulelei. For the later rounds, expect them to draft the best players available regardless of position. They need help everywhere, except for kicker.

AFC:

• AFC East
• AFC North
• AFC South
• AFC West

NFC

• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South
• NFC West

Back to the NFL Bible

1. Kansas City Chiefs – LT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan – Jay Glasser reported that Fisher is the Chiefs’ pick, I’m satisfied with that. This Fox Sports reporter is one of the true NFL insiders and has an outstanding record on draft day

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M – The closer we’ve gotten to draft day, the more apparent it’s become that the Jags will take the best player available. Insert Joeckel, who is a superior pass protector than Fisher.

3. Oakland Raiders – DT Star Lotulelei, Utah – Not a sexy pick, I could see the Raiders trading back, but I think the top three picks will remain with their respective teams. The Raiders have a giant hole in their defense, Lotulelei was the most consistent defensive tackle in college, he seems like a good fit here.

Philadelphia Eagles trades the 4th overall pick to San Diego for the 11th overall pick, their 3rd round pick in 2013 and their 2nd round pick in 2014 – Reports have come out that the Eagles are highly interested in one of the three best tackles in the draft, but I suspect a smokescreen. I think they’ll trade this pick.

4. San Diego Chargers via Philadelphia – LT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma – San Diego desperately needs an elite tackle to protect QB Philip Rivers. Johnson’s the best left, they have to make this move.

5. Detroit Lions – CB Dee Milliner, Alabama – The Lions are hand gifted Milliner, who’ll immediately become their best corner and should remain in their starting lineup for the next several seasons.

Cleveland Browns trades the 6th overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for the 14th overall pick, their 2nd round pick in 2013 and their 3rd round pick in 2014 – Carolina sees a chance to get the best penetrating defensive tackle in the draft and jumps at it. Meanwhile Cleveland and new VP of Player Personnel, Mike Lombardi, decides to accumulate more picks.

6. Carolina Panthers via Cleveland – DT Shariff Floyd, Florida – The Panthers have been unable to land a quality defensive tackle through the past few drafts, Floyd should change that.

7. Arizona Cardinals - OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon – The Cards are stuck with the best player available. Jordan, who also fills a need at outside linebacker, has been favorably compared to former NFL great Jason Taylor.

Buffalo Bills trades the 8th overall pick to the Atlanta Falcons for the 30th overall pick, their 2nd round pick (60) and their 1st round pick in 2014 – There have been rumors of the Falcons attempting to trade up. In my last draft, I had them targeting Milliner. This time around, I have them going after the best available pass rusher.

8. Atlanta Falcons via Buffalo – DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU – An absolute freak of an athlete, Ansah may not be ready to contribute in 2013 but has the chance to develop into the next Jason Pierre-Paul.

9. New York Jets – OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU – Mingo has been linked to the team throughout the offseason, it makes too much sense. Mingo would finally give head coach Rex Ryan a true threat at pass rusher, a key position his defense has missed since he took over as head coach.

10. Tennessee Titans – DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri – A bit of a surprise, but I don’t buy the rumor that the Titans are heavily interested in a guard. They already signed Andy Levitre (free agency’s top guard), they have more pressing needs. This could be a few picks too early for Richardson, but he’s almost as good of a prospect as Lotulelei and Floyd.

11. Philadelphia Eagles via San Diego – WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia – Austin is rumored to be in play at the Eagles at 4, so why not after they drop down?

12. Miami Dolphins – RT DJ Fluker, Alabama – The Dolphins seem committed to making Jonathan Martin their new left tackle, unless their trade for Branden Albert actually goes through. Until then, I have them selecting a top-notch right tackle.

13. New York Jets via Tampa Bay – OG Chance Warmack, Alabama – the best player available also fills a huge hole. A match made in heaven.

14. Cleveland via Carolina - TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame – Cleveland is likely going pass rusher or tight end in the 1st, Eifert would be too much value for them to pass on here.

15. New Orleans – CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State – The Saints need to upgrade their secondary, specifically their cornerbacks even after signing former Steeler Keenan Lewis. Rhodes would be a good match for their defense as well.

16. St. Louis Rams – OG Jon Cooper, North Carolina – Cooper is a possible in the top 10, specifically to Buffalo. I have them trading out, but he’d be a ton of value this late in the 1st round.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia – I’ve consistently mocked Jones here, and I still feel the same way. He’s too good of a fit not to be the Steelers’ pick.

18. Dallas Cowboys – DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina – In the past drafts, I’ve had them selecting Richardson, but he obviously doesn’t make it here. Williams would be a fine substitute for Monte Kiffin’s new Tampa 2 defense.

19. New York Giants – DL Datone Jones, UCLA – Somewhat of a surprise pick, I think the Giants will continue to aid their pass rush. Jones has versatility and can play end on run downs while moving to tackle on pass plays.

20. Chicago Bears – ILB Alec Olgetree, Georgia – The Bears may have signed two linebackers this offseason, but neither of them are sure bets to stay healthy. The Bears need to inject youth into their defense, despite Olgetree’s character concerns, he’d be a great fit for their team.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson – Not sure they’ll go Hopkins here, but I think they’ll draft a receiver to compliment AJ Green.

22. St. Louis Rams via Washington – S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas – For several mock drafts, I’ve had them taking Vaccaro at 16. In my final, he’s still available and should bolster their seconary.

23. Minnesota Vikings – CB Desmond Trufant, Washington – You can never have too many cornerbacks in the NFC North.

24. Indianapolis Colts – CB DJ Hayden, Houston – Despite overhauling their secondary in the last calendar year, they could still use a young player to develop at corner. Hayden may be the most athletic corner in this draft, but he has an unusual health history. He’s the type of players the Colts target, he’s their pick.

25. Minnesota Vikings via Seattle – MLB Manti Te’o, Notre Dame – The last two drafts the Vikings have selected a Notre Dame player in the 1st. For all of his problems, Te’o profiles as a starting MLB in the pros despite his athletic liabilities.

Green Bay Packers trades the 26th overall pick to the New York Jets for their 2nd round pick (39th) and their 2nd round pick in 2013. – The Jets see their top quarterback still available and decide to add a third 1st round pick to their 2013 roster. They offer too much value for the Packers to pass. Get ready for the run of trades to get quarterbacks…

26. New York Jets via Green Bay – QB Geno Smith, West Virginia – Smith is reportedly the Jets’ top QB prospect, and it’s easy to see why. Smith has been picked apart during this draft process, but he’s highly accurate, has a strong arm, and is agile. He makes Mark Sanchez expendable in 2014.

27. Houston Texans – WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee – The Texans need to provide quarterback Matt Schaub with more options while still drafting an heir to Andre Johnson. Patterson has the most upside of any receiver in this draft but he’ll have to improve his route running and overall football IQ.

Denver Broncos trades the 28th overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for their 2nd round pick (35) and their 4th round pick – The Eagles see their top quarterback and jump back into the mix.

28. Philadelphia Eagles via Denver – QB EJ Manuel, Florida State – Manuel was built to run Chip Kelly’s offense.

New England Patriots trades the 29th overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for their 2nd round pick (33rd) and their 4th round pick in 2014 – Jacksonville doesn’t want to risk losing out on their top quarterback so they offer New England a similar deal as the Eagles gave Denver.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars via New England – QB Matt Barkley, USC – Barkley had a bad senior season, often relying too much on Marquise Lee instead of spreading the ball around to his other talents. Still, he has a high football IQ and should challenge for Jacksonville’s starting position.

30. Buffalo Bills via Atlanta – QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse – Read what I wrote.

31. San Francisco 49ers - S DJ Swearinger, South Carolina – Swearinger is a versatile player, having the ability to play both safety and slot corner. He’s a player that could eventually become a All-Pro, impact player. San Francisco has the luxury of drafting depth and for their future.

32. Baltimore Ravens – WR Keenan Allen, Cal – General manager Ozzie Newsome always finds value, and though Allen’s had bad workouts, he’s still a physical receiver who seems tailor fitted to replace Anquan Boldin, the player Allen is most often compared to.

2nd round

33. New England Patriots via Jacksonville - CB Blidi Wilson-wreh, UConn

34. San Francisco 49ers via Kansas City – DE Margus Hunt, SMU

35. Denver Broncos via Philadelphia – DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State

36. Detroit Lions – DE Alex Okafor, Texas

37. Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland – RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama

38. Arizona Cardinals – OT Menelik Watson, Florida State

Cleveland forfeited selection due to selecting WR Josh Gordon in the 2012 Supplemental Draft

39. Green Bay Packers via New York Jets – CB Robert Alford, Southeastern Louisiana

40. Tennessee Titans – OG Kyle Long, Oregon

41. Buffalo Bills – OG Larry Warford, Kentucky

42. Miami Dolphins – DE Tank Carradine, Florida State

43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OL Justin Pugh, Syracuse

44. Cleveland via Carolina – QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

New Orleans forfeited selection due to punishment for team’s bounty scandal

45. Philadelphia Eagles via San Diego – CB Jamar Taylor, Boise State

46. St. Louis Rams – WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee

47. Dallas Cowboys – WR Terrance Williams, Baylor

48. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia

49. New York Giants – S Eric Reid, LSU

50. Chicago Bears – OL Dallas Thomas, Tennessee

51. Washington Redskins – OT Terron Armstead, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

52. Minnesota Vikings – WR Robert Woods, USC

53. Cincinnati Bengals - S Matt Elam, Florida

54. Miami Dolphins via Indianapolis – CB Darius Slay, Mississippi State

55. Green Bay Packers – DE/OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M

56. Seattle Seahawks – OLB Arthur Brown, Kansas State

57. Houston Texans – S John Cyprien, Florida International

58. Denver Broncos – RB Johnathan Franklin, UCLA

59. New England Patriots – WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State

60. Buffalo Bills via Atlanta – WR Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech

61. San Francisco 49ers – TE Zach Ertz, Stanford

62. Baltimore Ravens – S Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse

Mock Drafts:  see the progression…

• This is the End: Final Mock (not yet posted) – 4.25
• Pre-Draft Mock: Mock to the Future Part VI -
  • Mock to the Future: Picks 1-16 – 4.22
    
  • Mock Harder: Picks 17-32 – 4.23
    
  • End of the Mock: Picks 33-60 – 4.24
• Post Free Agency, V5 - 3.31
• Pre Free Agency, V4 – 3.4
  • 1st round, Picks 1-16 - 3.4
  • 1st round, Picks 17-32 – 3.5
  • 2nd round, Picks 30-62 – 3.6
• Mock Draft Part Tres! - 12.21.12
• Mock Draft 2 – 11.5
• The 1st 2013 Mock Draft – 10.25

Back to the NFL Bible

The Bills suffered through yet again another subpar season as the team finished with a 6-10 record. Though it would be unfair to label their problems solely on their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick (60% completions, 3,400 passing yards, 24:16 TD-to-INT radio), but he certainly did not help the team win games. Since the former Harvard grad took over the starting reigns in Buffalo, the Bills are an abysmal 16 games under .500 and only reaching six wins twice.

Fitzpatrick was born to be a backup, and that’s exactly what he’ll do for the foreseeable future in Tennessee. However, his “replacement” in Buffalo is former Eagles and Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb, who’s been nothing but inconsistent since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft. Kolb was traded to the Cardinals after the lockout of 2011, but failed to capitalize on his opportunity as he struggled by completing under 60% of his passes and ending with a 6-8 record as Arizona’s starting quarterback. If the season were to start today, the Bills would be in the same situation they entered the 2012 season: having a career backup as your starting quarterback.

At the end of the 2012 season, Bills’ general manager Buddy Nix fired head coach Chan Gailey and rehauled the coaching staff. After striking out on Oregon’s Chip Kelly, Nix found his new head coach in former Syracuse head honcho Doug Marrone, who also happened to be the Saints’ former offensive coordinator. Marrone runs a similar style of offense as seen down in the Big Easy; he likes to spread the field and give his quarterback tons of options. It’s one of the reasons why Drew Brees has dominated opposing defenses and has broken numerous passing records in the process.Nix has made it a point to find their next Jim Kelly, their next star quarterback. Even off the record, as this humorous exchange between Nix and Buccaneer’s GM Mark Dominik showed, Nix is well aware the Bills are in a dire situation. A situation which, if they fail to improve the team’s most important position, could spell the end of his tenure as the Bills’ general manager.

Through this draft process, Nix has scouted every elite college quarterback in preparation of making him their 1st round pick. Only one, West Virginia’s Geno Smith, seems to be worthy of a 1st round pick. Smith has also been universally hailed as this class’ best prospect at the position despite analysts poking holes in his skill set. However, it appears as though the Bills would pass on the opportunity to draft Smith in favor of another prospect: Nassib.

Hailing from Western Pennsylvania, Nassib was an unknown product heading to college. While he posted respectable stats in high school, he had few schools to choose from. He eventually chose Syracuse, where he redshirted his freshman year and eventually won the Orange’s starting position during their 2009 Spring Practices. However, former Duke basketball player and former New York State Football Player of the Year, Greg Paulus, transferred and claimed the starting job for Nassib’s redshirt sophomore campaign.

Nassib was finally handed the reigns in 2010 and failed to disappoint. The former unheralded recruit surprised many by guiding the team to a 2011 Pinstripe Bowl victory, finishing the season with a 56.4 completion percentage, 2,330+ passing yards, and a respectable 19-8 TD-to-INT ratio. The team regressed in 2011 as the school failed to become bowl eligible, yet Nassib improved his stats to a 62.4%/2,685/22-9 stat line.

Heading into his senior season, few predicted a future for Nassib on Sundays. Though he had a solid physical tool set, Nassib failed to impress scouts and his stats weren’t outstanding considering the offense he played in. However, Nassib kept his same completion percentage in 2012 but increased his passing yards by over a 1,000 and improved his TD-to-INT ratio (26-10). He also led the Orange to an upset victory in the Pinstripe Bowl as Syracuse beat the Smith-led Mountaineers behind a solid performance by Nassib.

Outside of football, Nassib was an exceptionally bright student. He finished his undergraduate degree after the 2011 season and is currently pursuing a MBA in accounting from Syracuse. Reportedly, Nassib came off as highly intellectual during his Combine interviews, wowing scouts with his quick thinking and understanding of complicated concepts.

As a football player, Nassib brings a particular set of tools to his positions. While he’s not quick footed (5.09 40-yard), he has above average mobility and a solid athletic build for a quarterback. He also has large hands (10’), which would be useful in cold weather climates where it’s difficult to grip the ball.

Nassib has solid pocket awareness. He’s shown that he can buy time in the pocket and not force bad passes as reflected by his TD-to-INT ratio. He’s also demonstrated the ability to shake off safeties with his eyes, a quality few college quarterbacks master before entering the NFL.

Nassib has a strong, but unspectacular arm. His quick delivery allows him to put a lot of zip on the ball, especially for his short passes. He’s also fairly accurate on intermediate passes. When not rushed, he’s exhibited his arm strength and accuracy better than when forced out of the pocket.

However, when compared to his weaknesses, is Nassib worthy of a high grade? Nassib is on the shorter side of quarterback at 6’2, and his lack of speed will hurt him while trying to avoid pressure.

There are also problems with his mechanics; he has a noticeable hitch in his throwing motion. Nassib tends to loft deep balls, which may work in college but NFL safeties won’t allow it. They’ll capitalize on these mistakes and take would be touchdowns into turnovers. He’s also demonstrated poor touch on his passes as he doesn’t know how to control his ball speed.

Nassib relies too much on his physical tools, often relying too much on his arm and forcing bad balls. When he’s out of rhythm, he’s demonstrated inconsistent footwork which led to poor accuracy. Outside of the pocket, he’s shown below average elusiveness and he probably won’t be able to escape NFL defenders. Though he would continue to hone his skills if drafted by the Bills and his former coach Marrone, one has to wonder if he even passes the eye test for a 1st round quarterback.

However, it appears as though Nassib is the Bills’ man. And why shouldn’t he? He’ll have continuation in that his old coach would be his professional coach. He also may be afforded to sit in 2013 while Kolb starts, a strategy that has worked with the 49ers and Packers recently. After my evaluation, I graded him as a 2nd day prospect: potentially a starter but far from a franchise quarterback.

But it doesn’t matter how I or any other draft analyst feels about Nassib, all it takes is one team to draft him to validate the prospect. So while it’s almost unanimously agreed that Nassib at the eighth overall selection (where the Bills presently are slotted) would be a reach, will it happen?

Assuming they want Nassib, I would understand a trade down to the mid to late 1st round to secure this prospect. While the top, elite prospects may have been taken by their pick, there should be interest in Buffalo’s current pick as teams could aim to draft “their” guy before the tenth pick.

For instance, if the Bills were to trade with the Falcons (who aim to draft a cornerback like Alabama’s Dee Milliner), they could end up with a later 1st round pick with several promising, later selections. Nassib should still be available at the end of the 1st round; other team’s haven’t shown a strong interest in the Syracuse prospect and there seems to be a flurry of interest in several other quarterbacks. Geno Smith could even fall out of the 1st round if ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr is correct in his prediction.

What if the Bills decide to pass on Nassib at 8 and select a prospect like North Carolina’s guard Jon Cooper? Would their quarterback be available at their 2nd round pick, 41st overall? Not likely as several teams (Jacksonville, NY Jets, Arizona, Cleveland) are interested in investing a 2nd day pick on a quarterback, thus allowing him more time to grow without being forced into action too early. There’s a chance that Smith, EJ Manuel, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones and even Mike Glennon could be selected before Nassib, so it is possible he’d still available.

However, the unspoken rule of the draft is that if a GM is fascinated with a prospect, unless it’s out of his control, he’ll do anything to acquire him. If the Bills aren’t confident they wouldn’t be able to get him later in the 1st or early in the 2nd round, Nix may pull the trigger and draft his next franchise quarterback.

Which leads me to my point, the Bills are going to fuck up the draft and select Nassib at 8. It won’t be a sexy pick by all means, but they’ll get their guy and pay the price of a top choice on a quarterback with a 2nd round grade.

But how will the Bills drafting Nassib fuck up the rest of the draft? Well, a number of things could happen.

After selecting Nassib, a top prospect like Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson or Utah’s Star Lotulelei would fall, causing interested teams to trade up. A flurry of trades could arise as teams scramble to get into better position for their ideal choice.

Selecting Nassib could also cause a run of quarterbacks as those aforementioned teams (Jags, Jets, Cards, Browns) could get impatient and give up important, future picks to ensure they land their prospect. If this theorem is proven correct, we could see quality prospects drop from the 1st to the 2nd, from the 2nd to the 3rd and so on. The wiser drafting teams will now be afforded the luxury of landing better prospects for a cheaper price than the foolish ones who gamble on this suspect quarterback class.

That, or the Bills’ interest could be a smokescreen and Nix is more than happy to start his season with Kevin Kolb as his starting quarterback. This IS the same GM who ended up in a game of phone tag with a few internet pranksters and in turn revealed his offseason plans.

Back to the NFL Bible

Preview: Value picks continue as a majority portion of the top wide outs and quarterbacks fly off the board early & often. Teams are still able to find value with these picks, we’ll see how wise some front offices are.

33. San Francisco 49ers (via Jacksonville) – DL Jessie Williams, Alabama: See pick 31 to see Williams analysis. 49ers now own the two most valuable picks of the 2nd round, you could expect a team to trade a future 1st round pick for one of these spots.

Alternate Pick 1: FS John Cyprien, Florida International: Cyprien could replace Dashon Goldson, a former Pro Bowler for the 49ers at free safety.

34. San Francisco 49ers (via Kansas City) – OL Justin Pugh, Syracuse: Pugh would be a luxury, but depth is needed along their offensive line. If they keep the pick, why not draft protection?

Alternate Pick 1: TE Zach Ertz, Stanford – Perfect replacement for Delanie Walker, has history with head coach Jim Harbaugh.

35. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Kyle Long, Oregon: Played under Kelly at Oregon, could help by moving Todd Herremans to guard.

    Alternate Pick 1: CB Darius Slay, Mississippi State: Slay’s stock has been rising during this offseason, word is he received an invite to draft day. He could become a 1st round pick.

36. Detroit Lions – CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Uconn: The Lions need to add to their secondary and continue to build their defense. They have nice pieces, but help to their corners is necessary.

    Alternate Pick 1: Pugh: I don’t think he could become a left tackle, but if they are unable to land a tackle in the 1st, Pugh would be a nice consolation prize in the early 2nd.

37. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Terrance Williams, Baylor: Arguably a better prospect than either Kendall Wright (2012, 1st round) or Josh Gordon (2012, Supplmental 2nd), he could be a nice fit next to AJ Green.

    Alternate Pick 1: RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama: Still not sure Lacy is the draft’s top back, but he could be a solid three down back for this Cincy offense.

38. Arizona Cardinals – QB Mike Glennon, North Carolina: If they want to draft Carson Palmer’s eventual successor, Glennon would be the perfect fit for Bruce Arians’ offense due to his arm strength. Profiles similarly to Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger, Arians coached Big Ben previously in Pittsburgh.

    Alternate Pick 1: OL Justin Pugh, Syracuse: Whether it’s starting at one of the guard positions, he could also challenge Bobbie Massey at right tackle in a training camp battle. Excellent value, consistent player on tape and shows intellect by pre-snap recognition. In the event that they draft Jon Cooper in the 1st, expect them to direct their attention elsewhere.

- Cleveland Browns (selection forfeited after selecting WR Josh Gordon in 2012 Supplemental Draft)

39. New York Jets – TE Zach Ertz, Stanford: They need to provide Mark Sanchez with a pass catching tight end threat, Ertz would also represent good value as he’s a solid long term investment that could pay off in way above average production from the position.

    Alternate Pick – CB Darius Slay, Mississippi State: Because of the Revis trade, expect them to address the position with some youth through this draft.

40. Tennessee Titans – CB Darius Slay, Mississippi State: Team could add more depth to their secondary, Slay would allow Alteraun Verner to focus exclusively on manning the slot position.

    Alternate Pick – TE Zach Ertz, Stanford: Would be a good replacement for outgoing

41. Buffalo Bills: QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse: Reuniting college quarterback with former head coach. Nassib would be a good long term investment as he could sit behind Kevin Kolb or challenge the veteran instantly; there won’t be a ton of pressure on a 2nd round pick initially. I could see Buffalo trading up to the end of the 1st in order to land their guy. He’s rumored to be in play at the 8th overall pick as well.

    Alternate Pick – WR Keenan Allen, Cal: The Bills need to have more threats for their passing game, Allen’s had a rough offseason after testing poorly in the 40 yard days (4.71) and reportedly testing positive for marijuana at the draft combine.

42. Miami Dolphins – DE Tank Carradine, Florida State: A pick down the line, Carradine won’t be healthy in 2013 and would be able to contribute in 2014 with the value and potential of a 1st round pick.

    Alternate Pick – TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati: Ability is off the charts, he has tested extremely well in offseason drills. Character questions abound, he has a big bust factor.

43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Sam Montgomery, LSU: There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding their pass rushers. Adrian Clayborn is coming off a knee injury, and Da’Quan Bowers was arrested with a gun. Montgomery brings a questionable work ethic, but he has ability to become a ferocious sack artist.

    Alternate Pick: WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia: Could be a valuable weapon for the Bucs and their developing offense, he’s arguably the draft’s 2nd best slot receiver after his former teammate Austin.

44. Carolina Panthers – DT Johnathan Jenkins, Georgia: The Panthers need a space eater, and someone who can take pressure off their ends.

    Alternate Pick: S Matt Elam, Florida: The Panthers have a bad group of safeties, they need to add more talent to the pool and hope someone emerges

- New Orleans Saints punished for Bounty Gate scandal.

45. San Diego Chargers – S/CB DJ Swearinger, South Carolina: A bit of a tweener, Swearinger could help out as a nickel back and future starter next to Eric Weddle. Swearinger’s been one of my favorite prospects during this offseason, I can see him ending up at the tail of the 1st.

    Alternate Pick – OLB Sio Moore, UConn: The Bolts need more competition in their outside linebacking group, Moore has been a name during this process and may now old upper 2nd round value.

46. St. Louis Rams – RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama: The 1st running back goes… Lacy’s had a bad offseason, but the Rams need someone to compliment 2012 draft picks Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead.

    Alternate Pick – OG Dallas Thomas, Tennessee: Could compete at left guard immediately, eventually take over at RT for Roger Saffold if he leaves during 2014 free agency.

47. Dallas Cowboys – DT Kawann Short, Purdue: If the Cowboys pass on Sylvester Williams in the 1st, they would still need help in their interior defensive line. Short could play in rotation next to Jay Ratliff.

    Alternate Pick: RB Giovanni Bernard, North Carolina: Could be a good compliment next to Demarco Murray, or a spot starter if Murray remains injury prone. He would add some excitement to their backfield.

48. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Keenan Allen, Cal: Good value here, also addresses a need and gives them insurance if Emmanuel Sanders leaves next offseason

   Alternate Pick: Elam: He’ll go sooner than this, but neither Troy Polamalu or Ryan Clark are getting any younger. Elam would be a great investment.

49. New York Giants – MLB Kevin Minter, LSU: The Giants never draft linebackers early, and when they have they haven’t panned out. Minter would be a good fit at the vacant middle linebacker position.

    Alternate Pick: CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State: The Giants need to add some talent to their cornerback group. Banks has had an underwhelming offseason but could be great value.

50. Chicago Bears – WR Robert Woods, USC: Was an All-American as a sophomore, and his statistics only suffered due to the emergence of former Trojan teammate Marquise Lee. Woods would be a nice fit next to the lengthy Brandon Marshall, Woods could contribute as a solid 2nd option for Jay Cutler on offense.

    Alternate Pick: OG Larry Warford, Kentucky: The Bears should continue to add talent to their offensive line. Despite signing Jerrod Bushrod to move J’Marcus Webb from left to right tackle, they could upgrade their LG position.

51. Washington Redskins – OT Terron Armstead, Arkansas Pine-Bluff: Armstead held his own during the week of Senior Bowl, he could prove to be a huge upgrade at the right tackle position for the ‘Skins. He could be in play at the end of the 1st.

    Alternate Pick: CB David Amerson, North Carolina State: Washington needs a ball hawk in their secondary, and Amerson could bring a playmaking ability to the position group.

52. Minnesota Vikings – WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia: He could help replace Percy Harvin, who filled the slot role for the Vikings the past few seasons.

    Alternate Pick: Banks- More depth needed in the secondary.

53. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Johnathan Franklin, UCLA: Perhaps the most complete back in the draft, he could end up as the complete back for this young Cincinnati offense.

    Alternate Pick: CB Tyrann Mathieu, LSU: Would be a great replacement for Adam Jones down the line, Mathieu has been linked to the Bengals throughout the offseason.

54. Miami Dolphins – RB Christine Michael, Texas A&M: Now it’s a run of running backs. Michael played under Miami offensive coordinator at Texas A&M; he’d have an understanding of the offense and would be able to compete against 2012 pick Lamar Miller.

    Alternate Pick – TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati: If they were considering him earlier, why not here as well?

55. Green Bay Packers – NT Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State: Would allow defensive coordinator Dom Capers to move BJ Raji to end, letting his strengths be exhibited as he has better access to opposing quarterbacks.

    Alternate Pick – WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State: The Packers have continually drafted wide receivers despite being it among their deepest positions. Wheaton would help fill Jenning’s shoes.

56. Seattle Seahawks – OL Dallas Thomas, Tennessee: Would help the right side of their offensive line, whether it’s competing at either the tackle or guard position on that side.

    Alternate Pick – LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State: Could start at weakside week 1. Should go earlier than 56th overall.

57. Houston Texans – OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M: A player I really like, he’s an option in for Houston at the tail end of the 1st.

   Alternate Pick – DE Margus Hunt, SMU: Hunt has been compared to a poor man’s JJ Watt… why not let him develop under the same guidance as the 2012 Defensive Player of the Year.

58. Denver Broncos – RB Le’veon Bell, Michigan State: A strong pass blocker, he would be able to protect Peyton Manning on crucial third down passing plays. Somewhat overlooked in this draft process, Bell could end up being great value ala Shane Vereen in 2011.

    Alternate Pick - CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State: Add more depth to their secondary, Champ Bailey can’t play forever.

59. New England Patriots – DE Margus Hunt, SMU: Could be a swiss army knife player for Bill Belichick if he can understand complex defensive scheme. Will have to learn a lot, but he has the athleticism to be great. I doubt he lasts till the end of the 2nd, but he would be too much value for Belichick to pass on.

    Alternate Pick - WR Da’rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech: Former standout at Tennessee, Rogers had to transfer after multiple positive drug tests. Rogers has all the talent in the world, he’ll need a structured environment to develop.

60. Philadelphia Eagles via Atlanta - ILB Arthur Brown, Kansas State: Could be the long term partner next to Mychal Kendricks in the middle of Philadelphia’s new 3-4 defense. Demeco Ryans is a poor fit for this defensive philosophy; he struggled in 2011 after the Texans brought in Wade Phillips to call their defense. Brown shouldn’t last this long…

    Alternate Pick – Mathieu: Kelly was never shy about taking on a player with character concerns while at Oregon, Mathieu could become an excellent player as a slot corner in Philly.

61. San Francisco 49ers – FS John Cyprien, Florida International: I don’t expect Cyprien to last this long, but he could be their replacement for Goldson.

   Alternate Pick – TE Gavin Escobar, San Diego State: Perhaps the best well rounded tight end in this year’s pool, Escobar could be a weapon if used properly.

62. Baltimore Ravens – S Matt Elam, Florida: If they would consider a safety in the end of the 1st, Elam would be a steal at the end of the second.

    Alternate Pick – DE Datone Jones, UCLA: IF he were somehow here, the Ravens would jump for the chance to draft him. He’d be a contributor early, but wouldn’t be relied upon until he’s fully ready a few years from now.

…back to the 1st round, picks 1-16

…back to the 1st round, picks 17-32

Back to the NFL Bible

On Sunday, the widely expected rumor turned into reality as the the New York Jets finally agreed, in principle, to trade disgruntled CB Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 1st round pick in 2013 (13th overall) and a conditional 4th round pick in 2014 (that would probably become a 3rd). Since January, when it was publicly reported that Revis was likely to be traded, the Bucs have maintained the primarily location for the NFL’s top cornerback. Revis’ final destination came as no surprise, the Bucs practically bid against themselves as a market failed to open for the elite corner.

The Bucs’ secondary ranked last in the league yards allowed as they yielded almost 300 yards a game to opposing quarterbacks. In a conference where they face Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, AND Cam Newton, strengthening this unit was an absolute must. The addition of Revis, along with the signing of former 49er FS Dashon Goldson, should vastly improve the unit as the group was infused with youth, talent, and experience.

This move has now revealed the Jets’ long terms plans of rebuilding. New general manager John Izdik is clearly trying to establish a new regime, one where management will not cave into player hold outs. This deal creates ample cap space for the Jets, who have been forced to cut several veterans due to being over the $123 million maximum. It also frees up money in the future, as they obviously will not have to pay Revis a contract of $16 million a year. They will also control the 1st round of the draft as they hold two middle round picks, establishing them as prime players to trade come draft day.

Even without Revis the Jets should maintain an elite pass defense. Revis missed 13 games last year and the Jets finished 2nd overall in pass defense; imagine what Rex Ryan can do with two more 1st round picks on defense (should they draft this way).

However, to get Revis to sign off on the deal, the Bucs signed the start cornerback to a six year, $96 million contract, making him the highest (per year average) defensive player in the league. Revis finally received his wish; he’s paid as a franchise quarterback. However, Bucs’ GM Mark Dominik was wise and somewhat lucky to get his deal approved; the contract features no guaranteed money. Dominik has also expressed his confidence that his new acquisition will be ready in time for Week 1.

When examining this deal, the first year ($16 million) comes as virtually guaranteed. Theres no chance the organization would release this player without playing a down for the team. Likewise, Revis’ second year is almost guaranteed as a franchise is unlikely give up on a player they just traded a prime 1st round pick for.

For the 13th overall pick, it appears as though the Bucs got a steal. Just as recently as 2011, Revis had 4 ints (one returned 100 yards for a TD) and played outstanding pass defense. He’s probably the league’s best cover corner in the past decade. In just over 5 seasons (not counting 2012) he has 19 career interceptions. He’s as close as a lock down defender as a cornerback as there is.

After the first two years, Dominik and Revis’ representatives will likely renegotiate the terms of the contract, perhaps giving Revis more guaranteed money but less of a long term commitment to the organization. If they fail to come to an agreement, Revis could be a free agent who’s still in the tail end prime of his career. He could still be inline for another monster contract.

However, due to missing most of the 2012 season with a torn ACL, can Revis still claim to be the league’s best cornerback? Pre Adrian Peterson and his miraculous recovery, I would say no. Very little chance a player that relies on his ability to cut and acceleration would return to pre-injury form. But Revis is only 27, and as Peterson’s rehabilitation showed, players can now come back to pre-injury strength.

In evaluating this deal, both teams won. A rarity in professional sports.

The Jets received fair compensation for a player that has baggage and injury concerns. They are now able to start their rebuilding project and target replacement players for Revis and the players released earlier this offseason. For the Bucs, they receive a big name, playmaking cornerback that will immediately make a difference to their porous secondary. They also were able to refrain from giving Revis guaranteed money, which will look brilliant if the corner is unable to return to 100% and his knee doesn’t recover.

Now we just have to wait and see how long Jets’ coach Rex Ryan will last during this rebuilding regime, but that’s an article for another time.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia: Jones would invigorate their pass rush, which was severely lacking in 2012. While his work numbers were poor, he may be the best bet to be an instant impact player.

    Alternate Pick 1: ILB Alec Olgetree, Georgia: Larry Foote has looked slow, and they could continue the heritage of having elite inside backers. Not their biggest need, but a position which should be addressed this draft.

    Alternate Pick 2: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame: The Steelers lost starting TE Heath Miller to a knee injury at the end of this past year, Eifert would essentially replace Roethlisberger‘s lost target. When Miller (if he’s not cut) returns to the squad, Eifert would compliment the veteran as they’re very different players. Eifert’s more of a pass threat, Miller is the better blocker.

    Alternate Pick 3: DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri: Aaron Smith can’t play forever, and they’ll need his eventual replacement. It’s time to provide help to some of the Curtain’s aged names.

18. Dallas Cowboys – OT DJ Fluker: Doubtful to still be here this late, he’d be a perfect fit for the Cowboy’s offensive line. Would allow the team to cut incumbent Doug Free and his $7 million salary.

Alternate Pick 1: Richardson: Jay Ratliff is a little grey in the tooth, they could use more youth and talent in the middle of their defensive line.

Alternate Pick 2: S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas: The Cowboys have holes at safety, could use an upgrade at FS especially.

Alternate Pick 3: OG Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina: If he were to somehow be there, it would fill a huge need for the team and would help their line tremendously

19. New York Giants – DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri: Too much value, Jerry Reese has been known to go for BPA or someone who will help their team most down the line. He’s not known for filling holes.

    Alternate Pick 1: DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU: I don’t see how he’d be here, but you never know.

    Alternate Pick 2: CB Desmond Trufant, Washington: The secondary needs a shot in the arm; of the available corners left, Trufant is the safest pick.

    Alternate Pick 3: Eifert – With the uncertainty surrounding both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, you can always draft a weapon for the future to give Eli comfort.

20. Chicago Bears – ILB Alec Olgetree, Georgia: The Bears should go for best player available, and Olgetree would be an instant starter as well for their linebacker core.

    Alternate Pick 1: Trufant: Could always use some more depth in the secondary, you can never have enough corners.

    Alternate Pick 2: Trade back to get more draft picks

    Alternate Pick 3: WR Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee: Give Cutler another weapon outside of Brandon Marshall and free agent signee Martellus Bennett.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Menelik Watson, Florida State: This would be a situation which current RT Andre Smith were to not resign. The Bengals have shown little interest in getting a deal done before the draft, Watson has a high ceiling.

    Alternate Pick 1: CB DJ Hayden, Houston: The Bengals can always add to the depth, they need to build a strong defense to contend in the AFC North. He’d create a good long term trio Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick.

    Alternate Pick 2: Patterson: They need more threats for Andy Dalton, Patterson plays like a raw Randy Moss. Let’s just see if he can translate potential into production

    Alternate Pick 3: Trade down to get more draft picks

22. St. Louis Rams – WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson: The Rams should continue to build their depth in their receiving core. Hopkins & Brian Quick could become great outside threats, don’t count of Chris Givens who I liked during the 2012 draft. St. Louis is reportedly interested in Hopkins or Austin, as high as at 16. Looks like the Rams will draft a wide out.

    Alternate Pick: S Matt Elam: The Rams have a giant hole at safety, Elam has a lot of potential and would be to become a Michael Griffin type player for Jeff Fisher.

    Alternate Pick: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina: GM Les Snead could continue to build to his strong defensive line, Williams & 2012 1st round pick Michael Brockers could become great compliments to Chris Long and Robert Quinn.

    Alternate Pick: RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama: Lacy had a sour offseason, barely able to showcase his skills. He wasn’t able to complete his recent pro day, he has injury questions that could send him to the middle of the 2nd round.

23. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Manti Te’o, Notre Dame: The Vikings need to upgrade the middle of their defense, and Te’o would be a good fit for a young locker room that’s lacking in talent. He’d be a good fit in this system and represents great value.

    Alternate Pick 1: Williams: The Vikings will eventually have to replace Kevin Williams, and this defensive tackle could be a solid complement in the meantime.

    Alternate Pick 2: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee: The Vikings still need vertical weapons outside of Greg Jennings, they need to improve the vertical options for Christian Ponder if they wish to continue his development.

    Alternate Pick 3: Trufant They need to upgrade their corners, Chris Cook and Josh Robinson are mere average and could use competition.

24. Indianapolis Colts – CB Desmond Trufant, Washington: General Manager Ryan Grigson usually goes best player available, and corner is a bigger need than defensive line.

    Alternate Pick 1: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina: Keeping to the BPA philosophy, Williams may be the next up. If they have Williams significantly higher on their draft board, he could be the pick even with their free agent signees.

    Alternate Pick 2: Trade back: Maybe Grigson sees more value in the 2nd, where he doesn’t have a pick. A trade back with a team looking to acquire Williams could be an option, a team jumping ahead of Minnesota to land the pass rushing big guy.

    Alternate Pick 3: CB DJ Hayden, Houston: If I’m misreading Hayden, and he’s not a mid 1st round, he could be an option here.

25. Minnesota Vikings – DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina: The Vikes fill their defensive tackle need with this pick. He helps Kevin Williams now and eventually replaces the former stalwart.

    Alternate Pick 1: OL Justin Pugh, Syracuse: The Minnesota could choose to upgrade their guards, and Pugh has been described as one of the smartest prospects in this draft. Almost like a quarterback on the offensive line, he could further help Ponder’s development while aiding Adrian Peterson in the run game.

    Alternate Pick 2: LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State: If the Vikes don’t go with Te’o, Brown could be a nice fit as a “Derrick Brooks” type linebacker for Leslie Frazier.

    Alternate Pick 3: WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee: If they don’t want to add Patterson, Hunter has also been described as one of the better prospects at his position.

26. Green Bay Packers – Trade down to acquire more draft picks

    Alternate Pick 1: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame: Would be best player available in this case, he could be the eventual replacement for Jermichael Finley, who’s not a strong bet to return past 2013.

    Alternate Pick 2: ILB Kevin Minter, LSU: Although the team resigned Brad Jones and still have both Desmond Bishop and AJ Hawk on the roster. Minter would be an upgrade on all three, but they have bigger needs.

    Alternate Pick 3: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina: Would be a great addition next to BJ Raji and could provide more depth with CJ Wilson, Jerel Worthy and Ryan Pickett.

– Green Bay trades the 26th overall pick to Philadelphia for the 30th overall pick and 3rd round pick in 2013: Philadelphia wants a worthy successor to Mike Vick, it looks as though this quarterback could be a perfect fit for Chip Kelly‘s option offense.

26. Philadelphia Eagles – QB EJ Manuel, Florida State: I feel like more than one 1st round quarterback, I can see the Eagles being aggressive and trading up to get their eventual starter behind Michael Vick. Manuel could sit a year, develop under Chip Kelly, then compete in 2014 for the starting job.

27. Houston Texans – WR Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee: Patterson would be a great fit next to Andre Johnson. The Texans need to focus on getting more consistent on offense, and providing more talents for Matt Schaub could be endorsement.

    Alternate Pick 1: Watson: The team could choose to provide competition to the right tackle job, Derek Newton could be pushed for starting privileges.

    Alternate Pick 2: OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M: The lose of Connor Barwin could sting, the team could look to replace him by adding more depth to the outside linebacker position. Moore is an intriguing talent; he’s had a poor offseason, but he’s a stud on game tape. Think a poor man’s Von Miller, he was his replacement in college

    Alternate Pick 3: S DJ Swearinger, South Carolina: Though they just signed him, Ed Reed isn’t getting any younger. Swearinger could also contribute in nickel & dime formations; he has versatility that will allow him to play cornerback as well.

28. Denver Broncos – DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State: Werner’s stock has dipped during this offseason, but he could help replacement the production Elvis Dumervil gave.

    Alternate Pick 1: DE Tank Carradine, Florida State: He’s coming off ACL surgery, but Carradine has great game tape and ran a somewhat impressive 4.96 at his pro day. His athleticism should come back closer to camp, could be a big steal due to this injury.

    Alternate Pick 2: Lacy – The Broncos could be interested in upgrading the running back position. Willis Mcgahee is getting up in age, and Knowshon Moreno is inconsistent at best.

    Alternate Pick 3: S John Cyprien, Florida International: The safety position was exposed as Rahim Moore was torched by the Ravens in the playoffs. Not a huge need, but Cyprien has been talked about as a late 1st round pick and could be good value.

29. New England Patriots – CB Jamar Taylor, Boise State: I think Taylor could be excellent value here, that or Uconn’s Blidi Bleh-wilson who’s a Devin McCourty clone.

    Alternate Pick 1: DL Datone Jones, UCLA: A value pick that could add more depth to their defensive line. Jones is very versatile; he could play end during run downs and switch to the interior on passing plays, allowing Rob Ninkovich to play. Late 1st round feels appropriate, perhaps another team will fall in love and trade back into the late 1st to get him.

    Alternate Pick 2: WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee: The Patriots wide receiver core is depleted, but Bill Belichick’s never been known to take receivers early.

    Alternate Pick 3: Trade down to acquire more picks – The Patriots have a history of trading down, they could always be tempted by future 1st round picks in a 2-for-1.

30. Green Bay Packers via Philadelphia via Atlanta: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame – After trading down, the Packers could get their preferred prospect four picks later than at 26th. Refer to what I said earlier for Eifert analysis

    Alternate Pick 1: DT Kawann Short, Purdue: Solid prospect that could be a good fit as a rotational defensive end with the potential to grow as a starter.

    Alternate Pick 2: DE Sam Montgomery, LSU: Perhaps the best pass rusher available, he has character concerns and I think the Packers would prefer to focus on their 2012 1st round pick, Nick Perry.

    Alternate Pick 3: Cyprien: It would be silly for the Packers to ignore the secondary, competition can never be a bad thing.

31. San Francisco 49ers: trade pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars

    Alternate Pick 1: Trade up to get Tavon Austin: A sexy option, the 49ers could look to add more weapons for Colin Kaepernick. Adding Austin would be intriguing to say the least, especially when accounting for Anquan Boldin.

    Alternate Pick 2: DL Jesse Williams, Alabama: The 49ers can use a lot of their picks as luxury, depth building picks for the future. Translation, they don’t need to draft starters. Yet, they could provide competition to their nose tackle position. Williams could challenge Ian Williams, or eventually take over for end Justin Smith when he retires.

    Alternate Pick 3: DE Margus Hunt, SMU: Hunt is an exotic pick, a big risk on drafting for the future but definitely worth of an investment. His potential is off the charts, but his ceiling is low.

–San Francisco trade their 31st overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the 33rd overall pick and a 2014 2nd round pick.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars via San Francisco: QB Matt Barkley, USC: The Jags need to give competition to Blaine Gabbert; this new regime has no loyalty to Gabbert and should bring in someone they want to eventually start for their organization.

32. Baltimore Ravens – WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee – The Ravens need to replace Anquan Boldin, Hunter would be great value and could give Joe Flacco another options.

    Alternate Pick 1: Cyprien- The Ravens failed to retain their 2012 starters, but signee Michael Huff can’t replace two players. Cyprien could be a day 1 starter and a long term player for John Harbaugh.

    Alternate Pick 2: OL Kyle Long, Oregon – Could eventually start at right tackle, if not provide competition to Kelechi Osemele at left guard

    Alternate Pick 3: D. Jones – Though they signed Chris Canty and Marcus Spears, they could use more youth and long term depth.

Summary:

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia

18. Dallas Cowboys – RT DJ Fluker, Alabama

19. New York Giants – DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri

20. Chicago Bears – MLB Alec Olgetree, Georgia

21. Cincinnati Bengals – RT Menelik Watson, Florida State

22. St. Louis Rams via Washington – WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson

23. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Manti Te’o, Notre Dame

24. Indianapolis Colts – CB Desmond Trufant, Washington

25. Minnesota Vikings via Seattle – DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina

26. Philadelphia Eagles via Green Bay – QB EJ Manuel, Florida State

27. Houson Texans – WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee

28. Denver Broncos – DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State

29. New England Patriots – CB Jamar Taylor, Boise State

30. Green Bay via Philadelphia via Atlanta – TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame

31. Jacksonville via San Francisco – QB Matt Barkley, USC

32. Baltimore Ravens – WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee

…back to picks 1-16

continue to the 2nd round…

Back to the NFL Bible

AccuScore Preview

Data being processed by simulations, info to come asap.

Appetizer

18.5 pts & 11.2 rebounds. That’s only the beginning of what the Warriors will be losing with the season-ending injury of David Lee who tore his right hip flexor in game one. According to Dan Feldman of NBC Sports, Lee’s presence on the floor has a direct correrlation to how the Warriors play: “With him on the court, they outscore opponents by 3.1 points per 100 possessions, best among the team’s rotation players. With him on the bench, they’re outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions, worst on the team.”

Can the likes of Bogut, Landry, and Draymond Green collectively pick up the slack? The magic 8-ball seems to think that’s ‘unlikely’.

Main Course

Let’s be honest – both teams played sub-par in game one. The Warriors saw Stephen Curry miss shot after shot (he did make a big three near the end though), and the Nuggets weren’t able to get out in transition and saw their own offense slow down too often. Fans can expect a higher-paced game two.

Let’s start with Steph Curry. He cannot start game two by missing his first nine shots like he did in game one. And I would bet a lot of money that he doesn’t do that again. I expect him to come out strong, knowing that his team needs even more offense with the untimely Lee injury. The Nuggets will start the game off by putting Ty Lawson on Curry, and will cycle through Iguodala, Fournier, and Wilson Chandler on him throughout the game. What this does for Denver is not put any added pressure on just one player to guard Curry; it becomes a collective effort. With that said, Curry needs to adjust his game accordingly. When it’s Lawson (and even Fournier), Curry has to get shots up. Anyone else, he has to drive and dish. He’s still new to playoff basketball, and will improve as he gets more games under his belt. Being able to read the defense and take advantage is what makes you a vet – just look at Andre Miller.

Speaking of Dre, he won’t score 28 points again. His scoring outburst, however, did expose a flaw in the W’s defense. With Denver being one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, the Warriors decided to employ the zone in game one. Good, smart move. But, when Denver moved all its players (minus ball handler) to the wings and baseline corners, the Warriors shifted their zone out even further, opening up more space in the middle. This ultimately gave Miller more room to operate. As we saw in the final play of the game, the Warriors weren’t in position to help the drive quickly enough.

Not-So-Fun Fact: David Lee is a focal point in 13 of the his team’s18 most-used lineups. Four of the five lineups without him have been absolutely horrible, being outscored by 10.9, 19.1, 16.8 and 16.2 points per 100 possessions in all four. The fifth lineup without him includes Biedrins and Jenkins (not on team anymore).

Dessert

Quite the turn of events – Lee is out and Kenneth Faried is in. The Nuggets missed 10 FTs, missed 13 three-pointers, were out-rebounded by 10, were out-assisted by 11 … and they still won. With Lee out, the Warriors won’t have as easy of a time forcing the Nuggets to play in half-court sets and I expect this game to go much more smoothly for the Nuggets than game one did (even though they did win).

Game Prediction

The Warriors weren’t going to win this game with or without David Lee. His impact is much more relevant to the remainder of the series, especially games 3 & 4 at home in Oakland. Some outside shooting will keep this game within striking distance, but it won’t be a finish ala game one. Nuggets 99 Warriors 91

1. San Francisco – Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (3rd year), 2012: 12-3-1 (1st in division, lost in Super Bowl), GM Trent Baalke

The ascension of this team began once Jim Harbaugh was hired before the 2011 lockout season. Instantly the 49ers were competitive and tough, as they rode early season success en route to a 13-3 record. Expectations were high entering this past season, and the 49ers did not disappoint as they played in the franchise’s’ first Super Bowl since the 1994 season. Entering this offseason, the Niners are primed to continue as one the league’s best team. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick should continue to improve. However, the strength of this team lies in their demeanor: toughness. Their defense, arguably the best in the entire league, rarely substitutes another defender and relies on their unity to stop opposing offenses. GM Trent Baalke has done a phenomenal job locking up their defense and building through the draft; this team has only a few potential holes heading into 2013.

1. Linebackers: ROLB Aldon Smith (3rd), RILB Patrick Willis (7th), LILB NaVarro Bowman (4th), LOLB Ahmad Brooks (8th) – Who’s got it better than us? NOBODY. Willis or Bowman are each arguably the league’s best middle linebacker. Aldon Smith just recorded 19.5 sacks in the regular season, and Ahmad Brooks is one of the league’s most underrated defensive players. None of these guys come off the field, allowing their defense to constantly be able to audible with the same personnel. If there’s an elite position unit in the league, it’s the Niners’ linebacking crew.

2. Offensive Line: LT Joe Staley (7th), LG Mike Iupati (4th), C Jonathan Goodwin (12th), Alex Boone (4th), RT Anthony Davis (4th): Congrats to the 49ers, you finished 1st overall in Pro Football Focus’ offensive line rankings for 2012! Staley is probably their steadiest player in this unit, but the lineman elevate each others play. They’re a stable unit and help carve openings for Gore and company while providing stellar pass production. Iupati is considered among the league’s elite at his position, and both Goodwin and Boone have played well this past season. Davis is still young and developing, but he has all the physical tools to be one of the league’s best right tackles. Baalke recently signed Davis to a five year extension, locking him up through his prime. This unit should continue to provide strength for the offense for years to come.

3. Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (3rd) – Whether it’s been Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick, Jim Harbaugh has gotten production from this position. With Kaepernicks’ rapid development, San Fran should be set for years to come barring injury. Kaepernick has one of the highest ceilings for a quarterback at the moment, which is staggering compared his youthful competition. By the way, I think general manager Trent Baalke got tremendous value for Smith and those picks will go a long way in improving the team’s already outstanding depth.

4. Defensive End: Justin Smith (13th): Smith is the 2nd best 3-4 defensive end in the league, and when healthy, this defense runs on all cylinders. This was proved when he injured his tricep and was forced to play at just 50%, thus not allowing Aldon Smith to wreck havoc on opposing QBs. The Niners’ pass rush suffered in the playoffs, but fans should expect it to return in 2013 when J. Smith is fully healed. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Niners use a high draft pick on a defensive lineman this draft, the draft is chalk full of talent.

5. Running Backs: Frank Gore (9th), Kendall Hunter (3rd), LaMichael James (2nd): Gore has been consistently among the league’s best since joining the starting lineup years ago. Backups Kendall Hunter (when healthy) and LaMichael James are great change of pace players who also provide in special teams. Overall, this is a talented and multi-dimensional, elite unit.

Draft: Baalke has the luxury of adding more depth in the 2013 draft, there are no certainties for this club as any unit could be address. There has to be strong consideration for adding another defensive lineman given the age of Justin Smith and the talented draft class. Baalke has been in contact with the agents of many high profile free agent defensive backs, if he doesn’t strike in free agency expect him to use a high pick at the cornerback position. Wide Receiver Randy Moss aren’t expected to return in 2013, but they just spent a 1st round pick on AJ Jenkins last year. Maybe a midround prospect who offers more speed is a posibility.

2. Seattle – Head Coach Pete Carroll (4th year), 2012: 11-5 (2nd in division, lost in NFC Divisional Game) GM John Schneider

Seattle was a very confusing club for most analysts before the 2012 season, as head coach Pete Carroll opted to start rookie quarterback Russell Wilson instead of free agent signee Matt Flynn. People expected them to be rebuilding, not rebounding to the playoffs. Despite his small size, Wilson carried his offense and acted like an established veteran behind a developing unit. Marshawn Lynch has been relied on often during his tenure in the Pacific Northwest, but he’s been solid as he’s rattled off two Pro Bowls since being traded by Buffalo in 2010. Defensively, Seattle boasts one of the best secondaries in the NFL as they have physically imposing corners who can shut down most receivers coupled by talented safeties to control the middle of the field. Their defensive line is great at defending the run, and they’ve gotten great production from Chris Cleamons (11+ sacks the last three seasons). Overall, this is a team that should have high expectations heading into the 2013 season, anything less than a playoff spot would be a disappointment.

1. Running Back: Marshawn Lynch (7th season) – Marshawn Lynch is their steady offense, and while QB Russell Wilson had a phenomenal rookie campaign, I’m worried about a dropoff in 2013. With Lynch, they have a back who can grind out tough 4 yard gains on 3rd down throughout three quarters, then turn on the burners to evade defenders to close games out in the 4th.

2. Secondary: Cornerbacks Richard Sherman (3rd) & Brandon Bower (3rd), FS Earl Thomas (4th), SS Kam Chancellor (4th) – I’m forced to group in the corners and safeties together, but because they create the league’s best secondary. CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Bowner are the most imposing combo in the league given their size advantage, while FS Earl Thomas has been arguably the best safety since entering the league in 2011. Before I published this write up, SS Kam Chancellor signed a four year, $28 million extension, ensuring this group will remain intact for the next few seasons. Individually, they’re all impressive. Collectively, they’re downright scary.

3. Quarterback: Russell Wilson (2nd) – Ok, so here’s Wilson. After not being given a fair shot and thus falling to the 3rd round turned out being the best thing for the former Wolfpack and Badger. While I wouldn’t say the sky’s the limit like Indy’s Andrew Luck or Washington’s Robert Griffith III but he can be the next version of a “Drew Brees type” passer. Still a significant ceiling based off his play.

4. Defensive Line: DEs Red Bryant (6th), Cliff Avril* (6th), Bruce Irvin (2nd), Michael Bennett* (5th), DTs Brandon Mebane (7th)  - I’ve got to hand it to Pete Carroll and company, he’s built a destructive defensive line that can constantly supply pressure on opposing quarterbacks. As perhaps the 2nd best team in the entire NFC, they know they can create problems for opposing offenses like Green Bay (as witnessed this year in the “Fail Mary”. I love the additions of Avirl and Bennett this offseason, they’ll look to replace the production the team will miss from Clemons (who’s out for the year with a significant knee injury). If Bruce Irvin can become more dimensional through this offseason, perhaps he can expand his game beyond pass rushing and limited to third downs.

5. Offensive Line: LT Russell Okung (4th), LG John Moffit (3rd), C Max Unger (5th) – Okung is their LT of the future, and the left side of their o-line is young and powerful. Lynch should have success for years to come behind Okung, Moffit and Unger. RT Breno Giacomini should return to the bench in favor of a new addition, so perhaps the team targets a young right tackle early in the draft. This unit has a ton of potential, but they need to capitalize on their potential to further help this offense.

Draft: With their defense seemingly shored up, I expect general manager John Schneider to give Wilson more weapons on offense in the 2013 draft. Though they traded their first round pick to the Vikings for Percy Harvin, they could still look to draft another wide receiver in the later rounds. They could also see if a right tackle becomes available at the right price in Free Agency, as they could permanently shift former 1st round pick James Carpenter to right guard. It appears as LB Leroy Hill will finally end his Seattle career after multiple off the field problems, so they could add a dynamic linebacker if one falls to them in the first few rounds.

3. St. Louis: Head Coach Jeff Fisher (2nd season), 2012: 7-8-1 (3rd in division), GM Les Snead

If division winners were chosen by their inter divisional records, the Rams would have represented the NFC West instead of the 49ers in the playoffs. The team finished 4-1-1 against their rivals, including a thrilling 24-24 tie with San Francisco in November. Jeff Fisher has turned this franchise around in just two years, the arrow is definitely pointing up for the entire team as they’ll continue to grow with more experience. They have a solid foundation in quarterback Sam Bradford and a physically gifted defensive line, but they’ll have to add more skill players to keep up with teams offensively. If they pull of another solid draft (they do have two 1st round picks), they should be able to contend for a wildcard birth in 2013 and could surprise teams along the way.

1. Defensive Line: DEs Chris Long (6th), Robert Quinn (3rd), William Hayes (6th), DT Michael Brockers (2nd): The Rams have invested three high 1st round picks in these players (not Hayes), and it’s starting to pay off with results. While it took a few years to develop, selecting Long with the 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft has certainly paid off; he averaged 11 sacks the past three seasons. Quinn is also a threat off the edge, he compiled 10.5 sacks last year as well and should grows as a run defender in his third season. Hayes was a terrific pickup and knows Fisher’s defense as a former player of his in Tennessee. Meanwhile, the front office surprised many by selecting Brockers in the 1st round of last year’s draft, but he surpassed expectations with 4 sacks and playing great against the run as their nose tackle.

2. Middle Linebacker: James Laurinaitis (5th) – Laurinaitis has been a rock since the team drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft. A starter since day one, he’s been the most consistent player within the organization since joining the team. He’s not on the same level as Bowman or Willis, but he’s started every game in his career and has been above average in the pass and stout against the run.

3. Quarterback: Sam Bradford (4th): Bradford’s a former 1st round pick out of Oklahaoma, and originally found success when he won the 2010 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, he was only able to start 10 games as a sophomore and limped through an inconsistent season featuring a 6:6 touchdown to interception ratio. In his first year under Fischer, Bradford rebounded nicely as the team almost reached .500. He’s the future for the team, and the organization has finally started to build an impressive offensive line to protect him. The next step will be to find him more weapons and a solid run game for security. Opponents have raved about Bradford’s potential, now is the time for him to show his ability.

4. Cornerbacks: Cortland Finnegan (8th), Janoris Jenkins (2nd): Finnegan may be better known as the player who attempted to start a fight with Andre Johnson, but he was worth every penny when he signed with the Rams last offseason (five years, $50 million). He’s a feisty defender who’s great in man-to-man and above average in run defense. He finished 2nd in the team in interceptions behind Jenkins, a rookie who fell in the draft due to character concerns. The sky’s the limit for Jenkins, and he had the talent and ability of a high 1st round draft pick before he was kicked off Florida’s football team after being charged with marijuana possession in 2011. Together, this tandem can grow into one of the league’s finest. Watch out for Jenkins; if he keeps his act together, he can become a top-10 cornerback in the league shortly.

5. Left Tackle: Jake Long (6th) – Long, a recent acquisition, signed with the Rams for four seasons and $36 million, a somewhat surprising figure in two ways. When healthy, Long challenges Cleveland’s Joe Thomas as the league’s best left tackle. However, he’s struggled to stay on the field over the past few seasons, making a four year contract somewhat disastrous if he fails to compete at a high level. I thought his contract was fair, but more importantly, it shows how concerned the Rams organization is with keeping Bradford upright and healthy. Long is a big gamble, but its worth the risk.

Draft: The Rams wisely traded last year’s 2nd overall pick to the Redskins in exchange for a bounty of picks. Although Robert Griffin III was spectacular as a rookie, the organization already has their franchise quarterback on the roster with Bradford. Heading into this year’s draft, the Rams have the fortune and flexibility of having two first round picks. They need to target another wide receiver for Bradford, and add another top talent or two on defense. In my latest mock draft, I have them selecting Cal’s Keenan Allen as a potential 1st round pick. They could also look to add youth to their interior line, as well as a replacement for RT Rodger Saffold, who’s unhappy about being moved from the left side. The Rams are young and up-and-coming, this draft will be important as they look to gain more talent and grow as a whole.

4. Arizona: Head Coach Bruce Arians (1st year), 2012: 5-11 (4th in division), GM Steve Keim

The Cardinals came out of nowhere and surprised the league by railing off four straight victories to start the season. Their first two came against future playoff teams in Seattle and New England, winning both by four points or less. However, due to a dramatically inconsistent offense and horrendous quarterback play, the Cardinals would fail to win another game until week 15 when they defeated the Detroit Lions at home. Cardinals owner Bill Bidwell fired both the general manager & head coach and replaced them with the tandem of Steve Keim & new coach Bruce Arians. While Keim was promoted from within (14 years experience in the organization), Arians comes over from the Colts where he guided the team to a 9-3 record in absence of Chuck Pagano, who underwent treatment for leukemia.

Although the Cardinals had a terrible offense in 2012, they surprisingly had a strong defense and finished 5th against the pass. However, former defensive coordinator Ray Horton left for the Cleveland Browns after being passed over for Arizona’s head coaching position. New coordinator Todd Bowles has a difficult job ahead of him as the team’s released or lost several important starters and must replace them with draft picks. Offensively, I expect this team to still struggle despite the addition of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer. 2013 should continue to be a rebuilding year for the franchise as they look to regain their late 2000’s prominence and reach the playoffs in the years to come.

1. Wide Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald (10th), Michael Floyd (2nd), Andre Roberts (4th): Despite having a poor statistical season (72/798/4), I blame Fitzerald’s disappointing year on the Card’s quarterback situation. Four different QBs started during 2012, and only one had a positive touchdown to interception ratio (Kevin Kolb, now on Buffalo, who led the team with a surprising 8:3). Fitzy’s getting up there in age, but he’s still one of the best possession receivers and arguably the league’s best route runner. The team surprisingly invested a high draft pick in Floyd despite wide receiver not being a huge need, but he could become a dynamic, high impact player for Arizona moving forward. Roberts has been a present surprise since being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft, he actually posted similar stats to Fitzgerald as the team’s 2nd option (64/759/5).

2. Defensive Line: DEs Calais Campbell (6th), Darnell Dockett (10th), NT Dan Williams (4th): Arguably the team’s most experience unit, this group holds it own against the pass. Though it doesn’t necessarily show in their stats (just eight sacks combined in 2012), these three are great at allowing their linebackers to make plays in coverage. However, they need to improve against the run, as the Cardinals’ defense allowed 137 rushing yards a game to opposing offenses in 2012. If they don’t do a better job at containing their counterparts, their linebackers won’t be able to make plays at the line of scrimmage.

3. Cornerbacks: Patrick Peterson (3rd), Antoine Cason (6th), Jerraud Powers (5th): Peterson has emerged as one of the league’s best cornerbacks in just two years of playing. His seven interceptions were among the league leaders, and has been named to the Pro Bowl as both a returner (2011) and a corner (2012). He’s probably the team’s best player. Cason & Powers were both added this offseason, but both were signed to market-fair, small deals. Cason has an opportunity to improve his value as he’s on a 1 year deal, while Powers is re-uniting with Arians after an inconsistent career in Indianapolis. Don’t expect him to create havoc as the team’s slot cornerback; he only has 6 career interceptions in four years in the NFL.

4. Inside Linebacker: Daryl Washington (4th): Washington was the team’s 2nd round pick in the 2010, and the former Texas Christian product has failed to disappoint in three years in the desert. He emerged last years and led the team in both tackles (134 total) and sacks (9). If his defensive line contains opposing offensive lines, he won’t have to make as many tackles way beyond the line of scrimmage and instead be allowed to make plays closer to the initial impact. It was just announced that Washington would be suspended for the first four games of the 2013 due to a positive substance test, so we’ll see how vital his play is to this team in his absence.

5. Quarterback: Carson Palmer (11th): Well, some position has to be their 5th best unit. Carson, recently acquired from the Oakland Raiders for a few late-round draft picks, was averaged to say the least while in the Silver & Black. While those Raiders teams were far from elite, he only managed to lead them to eight victories in his 24 starts. Still, he is a huge upgrade over what Ken Whisenhunt trotted out behind center for the Cardinals in 2012. He did throw twice as many touchdowns and a third less interceptions that the pu-pu platter of Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley (0 TDs/7 INTs), and Brian Hoyer. The Cardinals will have to provide better protection towards Palmer than what they offered in 2012; he’s slower and more of a pocket passer than their previous set of QBs and health has to be a concern.

Draft: The Cardinals NEED to address their offensive line as the unit gave up 58 sacks in 2012. I realize that injuries played a key part in their demise, but starting left tackle Levi Brown has always been better suited to play on the right side. If Eric Fischer or Luke Joeckel were to still be available at the 7th pick, I believe they’d rush to the podium. Regardless, Oklahoma prospect Lane Johnson could be in play as he is universally regarded as a top 10 pick as well. The team will also need to draft a new pass rusher, expect them to take one within the first two days of the draft. They should also look to take a developmental quarterback with a strong arm, someone who fits Arian’s prototype for the position. Keim will need to start off his residency with a strong draft in order to build a team to contend in 2014 and so forth.

AFC:

• AFC East
• AFC North
• AFC South
• AFC West – Coming Soon

NFC

• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South
• NFC West

Back to the NFL Bible

AccuScore Preview

Data being processed by simulations, info to come asap.

Appetizer

The Clippers won game one of the series 112-91, and according to many fans and analysts, made a statement by winning so easily. Before the series begun, critics (including myself) questioned whether the Clippers could keep up with the physical style of the Grizzlies. As we all know, possessions get limited in the playoffs and half-court basketball becomes very, very important. What game one showed us was a lack of scoring for the Grizzlies. It was a one point game around the 10:00 mark of the fourth quarter (score was 77-76), and the Clippers went on two huge runs to finish that quarter.

Can Memphis find a way to match those runs in game two?

Main Course

Rebounding will determine the outcome of this series. Via CBS Sports, game one saw the Clippers grabbed over 67 percent of the total rebounds available; in the regular season, the Grizzlies were second only to Indiana in the rebounding department. Memphis wants to play a grind-it-out type style, and while they were able to slow down the pace of the game to their liking, they weren’t able to take advantage of it due to their lackluster rebounding. Look for both Gasol and Randolph to crash the boards hard early, and make a conscious effort to improve the results of game one.

The rebounding will be a story-line throughout the entire series, but just for tonight, I’ll be looking at how both teams start the game. The Grizzlies shot a miserable 38 percent from the field in the first quarter of game one, while the Clippers shot around 56 percent. Much of that was a result of both Conley and Randolph being in early foul trouble, but if the Grizz want to keep things closer tonight, they can’t start the game committing unnecessary fouls and shooting sub-40%.

From what I saw in game one, the only player the Clippers really can’t match up with is Marc Gasol. A lot has been said about how great of a passer he is for a big man, but game one clearly showed that he might need to take on more of the scoring load for his team. The Clippers scored whenever they wanted to and needed to, and even if we assume that the Memphis defense will adjust, they still might not score enough to win the game. Coach Hollins has to get the ball down to Marc often, and facilitate the offense from there.

Fun Fact: In the last six games between these two teams, the Clippers have won all five that Bledsoe played in (one w/o CP3). LAC’s only loss came when Bledsoe was out.

Dessert

In game one, the Grizzlies were out-rebounded 47-23. Eric Bledsoe (6 rebs) had as many rebounds as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol did combined. If the Clips continue that type of dominance on the glass, this will be a very short series. But don’t count on that. Not yet.

Game Prediction

If the Lakers are going to steal one of the the first two games, it’ll be game one or nothing. Pop’s coaching acumen will have the Spurs making key adjustments as the series progresses, any slip ups will come early. With all that said, I think Lakers lose this one because of poor three-point D and Howard’s FTs.

Clippers 90 Grizzlies 94

Preview: I tried to throw a few surprises, most notably the selection of Eric Fisher over Luke Joeckel, but they’re arguably interchangeable for the top pick. I’m sure Oakland would hold a similar interest in whichever one were to be available, if they got past Jacksonville. A few times could attempt to trade up to improve their lines, Shariff Floyd & Star Lotulelei will command attention and there might be a race to acquire Oklahoma tackle Lane Johnson. It’ll be interesting to see if a team will trade up to get Tavon Austin, he seems to be the lone offensive game changer in this draft. There may not be a stud quarterback in 2013, but there’s a ton of depth throughout the positions. Players on my board between 10 and 50 hold similar value, a team like the 49ers which hold multiple picks in the first two rounds can make some damage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of the elite teams (aka teams drafting in the late round) trade up to get that missing piece.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – LT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan: Maybe somewhat an upset, but I’ll be in the minority by taking Fischer over Joeckel. Fischer offers more athleticism, but played against inferior competition while at Central Michigan. I’m unconventional, I’m going with Fischer.

    Alternate Pick 1: LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M: Supposedly it’s down to just three players, with Joeckel very much in it. Think of these two tackles as 1 and 1a. Branden Albert is expected to be traded, he could wind up in Miami for one of their 2nd round picks. If not…

    Alternate Pick 2: DL Shariff Floyd, Florida: This would make some sense, more than QB Geno Smith. Floyd could be an instant starter at defensive end, where Tyson Jackson has been a disappointment since being an early selection years ago. Floyd would join a young defensive line that includes 2012 1st rounder NT Donatri Poe.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – OLB/DE Dion Jordan, Oregon: I believe the new regime in Jacksonville will want the best player that will contribute immediately. Jordan could come in and play strong side linebacker on the first two downs, then roll over to the LEO position where he can rush the opposing quarterback. Most are going with Ezekiel Ansah or a tackle here, but I feel like Jordan fits well with the Jags’ defensive scheme and is a polished prospect in comparison to Ansah.

    Alternate Pick 1: Joeckel/Fischer: Pretty much whomever remains out of the left tackles options should be in play at this pick. The Jags cannot afford to have a looming contract hanging over their heads (current LT Eugene Monroe) next offseason, and perhaps the best move would be to draft the safest player.

    Alternate Pick 2: DE Ezekial Ansah, BYU: This selection would specifically aid their defensive line, as they need help at the ends. Ansah would be a developmental pick, but under the right guidance, but the sky’s the limit for the prospect.

    Alternate Pick 3: CB Dee Milliner, Alabama: The Jags have a horrendous cornerback group, Milliner would be their best corner on the roster immediately. They may be able to afford to trade back with a team like the Lions to acquire more picks while still getting one of these choices.

   Alternate Pick 4: QB Geno Smith, West Virginia: Yes, this selection is somewhat unconventional due to former 1st round quarterback Blaine Gabbert, but if management wants to get their franchise QB, Smith theoretically would be it.

3. Oakland Raiders – LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M: Recent talk has the Raiders heading towards their offensive line. Joeckel would be a safe pick, he would add stability to a group that needs to protect Matt Flynn. Sure, he’s not going to help their horrendous defense, but they need to hit with this pick. The Raiders are also rumored to be interested in drafting the safest prospect, meaning if Joeckel’s in play, expect him to wear the Silver & Black on Sundays.

    Alternate Pick 1: Milliner: They have a rag-tag team of former big name busts Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter as their starting corners. The Raiders need to improve all aspects of the unit.

    Alternate Pick 2: Smith: Management could look to add to their quarterback competition; Flynn isn’t a sure thing and Terrelle Pryor hasn’t shown enough through limited 2012 playing time.

    Alternate Pick 3: Shariff Floyd, Florida: Congrats to Pat Sims and Vance Walker, you are the starting defensive tackles of the 2013 Oakland Raiders!

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Trade with Atlanta Falcons -  I think the Falcons are gunning to trade up to get a top prospect; general manager Thomas Dimitroff needs to add a playmaker to their defense in lieu of not retaining Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes. I just have a gut feeling, and wanted to have fun with this mock. Trades galore!

    Alternate Pick 1: CB Dee Milliner, Alabama: … Or the Eagles could keep the pick and add a great cornerback prospect. Chip Kelly will need to have a shutdown cornerback to compete against the Elis & Romos of the league.

    Alternate Pick 2: Floyd/DT Star Lotulelei, Utah: If one of these players is available, I would expect the Eagles to pounce on a top-notch talent who could play immediately. A difference maker.

    Alternate Pick 3: Fischer/Joeckel: If one of these players were available, I think the Eagles would consider adding stability to their offensive line; a group that was plagued by injuries and spotty play in 2012.

– Philadelphia trades 4th overall and 6th round pick in 2013 to the Atlanta Falcons for 30th overall, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2013, 1st round pick in 2014, 2nd round pick in 2015! That’s 5 high draft picks to move up to get Milliner, absolute madness!

4. Atlanta Falcons via Philadelphia Eagles: CB Dee Milliner, Alabama – Looking at his roster, he has a major hole at corner opposite of Asante Samuel. He’s supposedly high on Milliner, I could see this trade happening. They could consider a pass rusher, but they’ve already added Osi Umenyiora in an attempt to replace John Abraham‘s production.

5. Detroit Lions – DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU: Detroit gets somewhat screwed here, their top three players (Joeckel, Fischer, Milliner) are already gone. Ansah is a fine consolation prize, he could be a perfect fit for Jim Schwartz‘s Wide-9 defensive scheme. He’d be an excellent fit next to Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.

    Alternate Pick 1: Fischer/Joeckel: The Lions desperately need a long term starter at left tackle due to the retirement of Jeff Backus. While Riley Reiff was drafted in last year’s 1st round, his small arms are better suited for the right side.

    Alternate Pick 2: Milliner: Another tragic loss, Milliner would become Detroit’s top corner upon arrival. Chris Houston is a decent 2nd cornerback, they really need talent to play against Aaron Rodgers twice a year.

    Alternate Pick 3: Jordan: Jordan would play a Leo-type position in Detroit where he could alternate between strong linebacker and rush passer. An intriguing prospect and chess piece for Schwartz to play with.

6. Cleveland Browns –  Trade with either San Diego or Miami – I see multiple teams angling for the last top tackle, these two teams should fight for this pick as Arizona will surely take Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson. Cleveland takes the best offer.

    Alternate Pick 1: Milliner: Milliner, if he got past all five picks, would be an outstanding gift for a front office that’s supposedly in love with the idea of manning him with Joe Haden.

    Alternate Pick 2: Jordan: While the team’s added Paul Kruger this offseason, rumor has it they’re not so hot on Jabaal Sheard transitioning to the 3-4 scheme.

    Alternate Pick 3: Smith: Smith could be an option here. New GM Michael Lombardi wasn’t hot on Brandon Weeden before the 2012 draft when he was an analyst for the NFL Network. He’s pledged to give Weeden a fair shot against Jason Campbell this offseason. They could want to get their franchise quarterback this year, Smith could be their guy.

– Cleveland trades the 6th overall pick to San Diego trades 11th overall & 3rd round selections in 2013 & 14

6. San Diego Chargers via Cleveland – OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma: Johnson’s the last true, top talent left tackle on the market. He’d be a day-1 starter in San Diego; maybe the Chargers can finally protect Philip Rivers.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Trade with Tennessee or Carolina: Arizona, feeling left out of the left tackle market, senses the ability to get their guy at a later pick. Depends on if they want to risk it at 14 or at 10, I think they take the safer route and drop down to Tennessee.

    Alternate Pick 1: OG Chance Warmack, Alabama: …Or the Cards can add a player that’s a sure fire multi- All Pro 1st teamer. Warmack is the safest prospect in this draft, he’s been favorably compared to the next Brian Winters.

    Alternate Pick 2: OT DJ Fluker, Alabama: Fluker could give competition to Bobbie Massie, who was inconsistent as a rookie in 2012. But they would be drafting a right tackle in the top 10, making Levi Brown their left tackle starter for the foreseeable future.

    Alternate Pick 3: Lotulelei: Well… NT Dan Williams has been somewhat of a disappointment. Lotulelei would be strengthening one of their stronger units, but it’s a safe pick.

– Arizona trades the 7th overall pick to Tennessee trades 10th overall & 4th round selection in 2013

7. Tennessee Titans via Arizona: DT Shariff Floyd, Florida: Tennessee worries that Carolina will take their man, so they panic trade up to ensure they draft Floyd. Lotulelei was the consensus top tackle entering the draft process, but Shariff has looked good on tape and showed a lot of potential despite having low sack totals. He’s a better pass rusher as exhibited by his ability to disrupt quarterbacks.

8. Buffalo Bills: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah: The best value and also fills a huge need, the Bills’ defense needs to continue to add talent.

    Alternate Pick 1: OT DJ Fluker, Alabama: Fluker would be an upgrade over starting RT Erik Pears, but it would be an uninspiring pick. But it’s conventional Buffalo, and I think it would help establish a better offensive line. Regardless, I would hope GM Buddy Nix would try to protect the quarterback in 2013.

    Alternate Pick 2: Warmack: Warmack would replace outgoing guard Andy Levitre. Warmack, as previously stated, is one of the strongest prospects in the draft class, both physically and figuratively.

    Alternate Pick 3: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia: Austin would be a valuable weapon to an offense that already has speed. Austin, CJ Spiller and Stevie Johnson could be fun to play with. It’s not out of style for Nix to go with an unconventional pick.

– OR they could trade the pick to San Francisco for their 31st pick and some combination of 2nd rounders. The Bills could be in love with either Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib, they may want to land their future franchise quarterback this year. The 49ers would then select Austin.

9. New York Jets – OG Chance Warmack, Alabama: The J-E-T JETS JETS JETS! have a giant hole at left guard, where they are not expected to resign Brandon Moore. Moore had been a mainstay at that position for this offensive line, going through multiple regime changes. Warmack would be great value and would fill a need; Rex Ryan loves a nasty player.

    Alternate Pick 1: Mingo: Mingo could be a perfect fit for a Rex Ryan defense; the coach would finally get his Suggs-esque player.

    Alternate Pick 2: Milliner (if he fell this far, somehow): Highly unlikely unless the media is drastically overrating Milliner, he’s not expected to fall. But he’d be a great replacement for Revis, who I think will be traded on draft day.

    Alternate Pick 3: Jordan (again, if he fell this far, somehow): I don’t think Jordan will get out of the top 5, but you never know…

10. Arizona Cardinals via Tennessee- OG Jon Cooper, North Carolina: Perhaps Arizona is enamored with a guard, and they think they can still help their offensive line while picking up an extra draft pick or two. Cooper would instantly compete at both guard positions, and he could become a stable starter for a extended period.

    Alternate Pick 1: Warmack: If Warmack were available, he could be the pick over Cooper.

    Alternate Pick 2: DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU: Not liking the available tackles, the Cards could look to strengthen their pass rushers by adding the best available.

    Alternate Pick 3: Lotulelei: The Cardinals supposedly aren’t in love with NT Dan Williams. Lotulelei could continue to strengthen the unit.

11. Cleveland Browns via SD - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia: The first surprise of the day, Lombardi & Rob Chudzinski land their future starter. They look to trade Weeden for 50 cents on the dollar, perhaps someone bites. But Chudzinski gets a player he can mold after Cam Newton, the player he coached as Carolina’s offensive coordinator.

   Alternate Pick 1: CB DJ Hayden, Houston: Fast riser in this draft process, NFL Network’s Mike Mayock has him as his top corner in this draft.

    Alternate Pick 2: Mingo: Mingo could be their pass rushing threat. He’d be a great compliment to Kruger, and could provide another body off the bench initially. You can never have enough pass rushers.

    Alternate Pick 3: S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas: They need to add a safety, TJ Ward is a decent player but Vaccaro would be an instant contributor and a prospect with ability to grow.

12. Miami Dolphins: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State: Heartbroken that the top five offensive linemen have been taken, Rhodes would fill a need opposite signee Brent Grimes. The Dolphins have this void at the position due to the loss of their top two picks of 2009, former starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

    Alternate Pick 1: Trade up to acquire OT Johnson: It sounds like the team could angle to draft Johnson, or even Cooper or Warmack. It could use a few draft picks, but they need to protect Ryan Tannehill as he’s their future.

    Alternate Pick 2: Fluker: If Fluker were to still be available, I would think the Fins would pounce to grab a starting tackle. It’s arguably their biggest need, that or the secondary. Fluker would follow the investment in 2012 2nd round pick Jonathon Martin in their offensive tackles.

    Alternate Pick 3: Mingo: Miami could look to add to their pass rush as they lack a threat outside of Cameron Wake. Mingo could contribute early on as a third down, pass rushing specialist.

New York Jets via Tampa Bay: When I created this mock, I had predicted a trade. This past Sunday, it was announced as the Jets agreed to trade disgruntled cornerback Darelle Revis to Tampa Bay for the 13th overall pick and a conditional 2014 4th round (that improves to a 3rd if Revis makes the 2014 offseason). The Bucs also gave Revis a six year, $96 million contract that featured no guaranteed money– Revis is gambling on his ability to play post-ACL. Great steal for the Bucs if they land the best cornerback in the league, and now have the ability to cut their losses if Revis isn’t… Revis.

13. New York Jets via Tampa Bay – DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU: While the trade has not become official, I could see the Jets drafted Mingo with their first pick, they could be infatuated with a pass rusher. Warmack could also be available here if he takes a small dive.

    Alternate Pick 1: Hayden: To replace Revis, the team could look to add the best cornerback. That may or not be Hayden. Hayden is under a unique health situation, one that was life threatening but a freak accident.

    Alternate Pick 2: Austin: Austin would add a new dimension to an offense that was stale in 2012. It would help distract a lack of a tight end, but he could be a dynamic player. He may not even be around at 13, I could envision a team or two trading up.

    Alternate Pick 3: Smith: If the front office lacks faith in Mark Sanchez, Smith could be the go-to pick here. He could be the new face of the Jets, as the
Sanchize” era has failed.

14. Carolina Panthers – WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia: The Panthers can give Cam Newton a serious player. Steve Smith is a nice option, but he’s getting up there in age. It’s time to give the franchise quarterback a youthful weapon.

    Alternate Pick 1: DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri: There’s a big need at the center of their defense, past defensive tackles have failed despite high picks.

    Alternate Pick 2: Trade up to acquire either Lotulelei or Floyd: Both are elite prospects, but thats no disrespect to Richardson. This is only if Ron Rivera is in love with either Lotulelei or Floyd.

    Alternate Pick 3: CB Desmond Trufant or Rhodes: Whoever is available, the Panthers could be in the market for a young cornerback, not much depth.

15. New Orleans Saints – CB DJ Hayden, Houston: The Saints need to help their pass defense, they were atrocious in 2012. The entire defense was historically bad in 2012, Hayden would be a must add. It’s like a band aid when stitches are needed.

    Alternate Pick 1: OT Menelik Watson, Florida State: The Saints will have to replace LT Jerrod Bushrod, who signed with Chicago earlier this offseason. The offense relies on allowing Drew Brees time to complete quick passes; his play makes up for a lot of the deficiencies in their offense.

    Alternate Pick 2: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia: Jones would be a great addition to a team that lacks a proven pass rusher. For Rob Ryan’s defensive scheme, they’ll need to be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

    Alternate Pick 3: Mingo: Similar to Jones, I just don’t believe Mingo will still be available in the middle of the round.

16. St. Louis Rams – S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas: The Rams have a giant hole at safety, they could inject some youth into their secondary by adding Vaccaro.

    Alternate Pick 1: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia: Adding Austin would provide Sam Bradford with a functioning game changer. Jeff Fisher may feel the need to grab a talented all-around player as Austin could be a dynamic kick returner as well.

    Alternate Pick 2: J. Jones: Another chess piece for Fisher to play with, adding Jones to a talented linebacker core could help hide his flaws, while maximizing his pass rush ability.

    Alternate Pick 3: Trade back, acquire more picks: Always fair to build for the future.

Summary:

1. Kansas City Chiefs – LT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE/OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon

3. Oakland Raiders – LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M

4. Atlanta Falcons via Philadelphia – CB Dee Milliner, Alabama

5. Detroit Lions – DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU

6. San Diego Chargers via Cleveland – LT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma

7. Tennessee Titans via Arizona – DT Shariff Floyd, Florida

8. Buffalo Bills – DT Star Lotulelei, Utah

9. New York Jets – LG Chance Warmack, Alabama

10. Arizona Cardinals via Tennessee – LG Jon Cooper, North Carolina

11. Cleveland Browns via San Diego – QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

12. Miami Dolphins – CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State

13. New York Jets via Tampa Bay – DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU

14. Carolina Panthers – WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia

15. New Orleans Saints – CB DJ Hayden, Houston

16. St. Louis Rams – S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas

Continue in the 1st round: picks 17-32

Jump ahead to the 2nd round: picks 33-60

Back to the NFL Bible

AccuScore Preview

The Spurs are big-time favorites with an 82.2% chance of winning game one. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 103-92. The Spurs are currently favored in Vegas by 8.5 points and cover that spread in 58% of the simulations.

Projected Leaders

Dwight Howard: 20 pts, 12 rebs, 2 blks
Pau Gasol: 17 pts, 9 rebs, 5 asts

—

Tim Duncan: 19 pts, 10 rebs, 2 blks

Tony Parker: 18 pts, 7 asts

Appetizer

The Spurs won  two of the three regular season games between the tams, but the Lakers did win the most recent match-up to date, beating San Antonio this past Sunday. We know the Lakers are without Kobe Bryant, but keep an eye out for the statuses of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. If they’re even somewhat healthy, the Spurs will take this game and the series fairly easily. If they’re hobbling, however, the Lakers just might have enough to steal a few games and maybe even the series.

Main Course

For the Lakers, everything will be about their defense, specifically the perimeter defense. Parker and Ginobili are extremely crafty in how they get in the lane and kick out for open jumpers. Rather than help the dribble drive, I would have the guys guarding shooters to just stick with their guys. Let each individual be responsible for an assignment because helping off of shooters and/or cutters will just create more havoc.

On offense, the Lakers need to dump it into the paint on every possession. It’s the only advantage the team has over the Spurs, and win or lose, you have to at least try and exploit the advantage. My only worry is that Pop hacks-a-howard, ultimately taking away LAL’s flow and size. Either way, Pau can’t let Tiago Splitter come close to matching his impact on the game.

Look for the Spurs to stifle the Lakers on D early and take away any sort of confidence the team has coming into the series. The Lakers shot under 37% in their last win against the Rockets, and anything below 43% will be a guaranteed loss in this series. Pop and his team know that after the injury to Kobe, the Lakers don’t have the same identity as before and no one to create shots. They will double the post often, and force LA’s shooters to make some shots on the road. Miss those early and expect a very short series.

X-Factor: Steve Nash. If he can stay healthy and just be on the floor for an extended period of time, the Lakers can get the spacing their bigs need. Even though Steve Blake has been playing well recently, let’s not kid ourselves by saying that he makes the defense game-plan for him. Nash, on the other hand, does because of his reputation.

Dessert

OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)

Spurs: offense 105.9 (7th in NBA), defense 99.2 (3rd in NBA)

Lakers: offense 105.6 (8th in NBA), defense 103.5 (18th in NBA)

Differential: Spurs +6.8 (3rd in NBA), Lakers +2.0 (10th in NBA)

Game Prediction

If the Lakers are going to steal one of the the first two games, it’ll be game one or nothing. Pop’s coaching acumen will have the Spurs making key adjustments as the series progresses, any slip ups will come early. With all that said, I think Lakers lose this one because of poor three-point D and Howard’s FTs.

Spurs 97 Lakers 88

AccuScore Preview

The Nets are solid 67% favorites in game 1 vs the Bulls. The average score in the simulations is 96-91. The Nets are currently favored by five points and have exactly a 50% chance at covering that. It’s the first playoff game in Brooklyn, though, and I’d give up those five points if I was going to bet. Nets should win by more than that. There is nearly a 58% chance the total score goes over 181. While  Brooklyn has a much higher probability at getting a big win (>10 pts), both teams have a fairly comparable chance at getting a close win (<4 pts).

Projected Stats (via AccuScore)

Carlos Boozer: 16 pts (46% FG), 10 rebs

Luol Deng: 15 pts (43% FG), 6 rebs, 2 asts, 1 stl

Joakim Noah not in simulations

—

Deron Williams: 22 pts (44% FG), 11 asts, 1 stl

Brook Lopez: 21 pts (48% FG), 6 rebs, 2 blks

Appetizer

The Bulls won the season series 3-1, but the majority of the games were very close and competitive. One game was won by 1 pt, another by 2. Keep in mind, Joakim Noah‘s status is not only uncertain for game one, but for the entire series. That’s a huge blow to an already depleted squad, and one that depends on its defense to win games.  If the Bulls had a healthy Noah, the series could easily go six games. Unfortunately, if Noah is as hurt as it seems, he’ll have very little impact on the series and it could be over in five.

Main Course

With Noah most likely out, this just became the most boring series  in the first round. Okay, so maybe the Bucks-Heat one has that potential, at least one team will be exciting to watch. Chicago’s defense will be able to keep some of the games close. Being a defensive battles devoid of actual superstars, don’t expect too much pure excitement in this one.

Brooklyn needs to just do work in the paint. Reggie Evans will do the dirty work in the paint when he’s in, matching Chicago’s physical style. On offense, throw it down to Lopez as often as possible. Chicago’s bigs are not healthy right now, and Lopez has plenty of offensive skill to take advantage of that.

If the Bulls can contain Deron Williams, they have a good chance of extending the series. Jimmy Butler won’t shut down Joe Johnson, but he should be able to keep up with him just fine. Deron is projected to get 22 & 11 tomorrow, but if the Bulls can hold him to something closer to 17 & 6, they just might make a series out of this.

On the other side of the ball, the only option will be to win or lose by Nate Robinson. Let him take control of the offense, and hope that he catches fire. He’s projected to 13 pts and 5 asts in game one. Without him firing on all cylinders, the Bulls won’t have enough to keep up.  Keep in mind, much of this is a result of Noah probably being out. If he and Taj Gibson are actually healthy for the majority of the series, then I’d probably pick the Bulls to win it.

Dessert

Chicago: 47% two-point defense, +2.1 rebounding, -0.6 TO’S, 5.4 treys, #26 full season pace

Brooklyn: offense 105.0 (9th best in NBA), defense 103.6 (18th in NBA)

Chicago: offense 100.4 (24th in NBA), defense 100.3 (5th in NBA)

Differential: Nets +1.4 (12th in NBA), Bulls +0.1 (15th in NBA)

Game Prediction

With Noah’s out, the Bulls just won’t have enough to go an entire playoff series. They can get a couple games, through sheer hustle and strong defense, but not more than 2.

Nets 89 Bulls 80

AccuScore Preview

The Denver Nuggets are solid 60.9% favorites vs the Warriors in game one. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 109-106. The hot trend of the day is to take the points and Warriors on the spread. You’d get 8.5 points, and are expected to cover that 62% of the time. It’s probably safe to take the over on this game too; there’s a 59.5% chance the total goes over 210.5.

Projected Stats (via AccuScore)

Stephen Curry: 27 pts (4 three-pointers, 45% FG), 10 asts, 5 rebs

Klay Thompson: 18 pts (3 three-pointers, 41% FG), 4 rebs, 2 asts

–

Ty Lawson: 17 pts (50% FG), 7 asts, 3 rebs, 2 stls

Andre Iguodala: 16 pts (47% FG), 7 rebs, 6 asts

Appetizer

The Nuggets won the season series 3-1. In the one Warriors victory (which was by 1 pt), David Lee dominated with 31 pts and 9 rebs. Denver’s Kenneth Faried sat out the final two games of the regular season due to an ankle injury. He was not included in AccuScore’s simulations, a good indication that he will either not play or have very, very, very little impact. We’ll keep an eye out for his status as it will have a huge impact on both the energy and outcome of the game.

Main Course

This series might end up being the most exciting to watch in the entire first round. I think the Nuggets won’t win in fewer than 6 games, and most of the games will stay fairly competitive. Both teams get out in the transition and can score big from beyond the arc, ensuring that neither team will ever really be out of any game. The Nuggets lost only three games at home all season, so don’t expect to steal more than one (if even that) in Denver.

This excerpt from a Mercury News blog says it all -

When Denver plays at home, it sees a meaningful surge in the “hustle” categories. Points off turnovers jump from 18.1 to 21.6. Fast break points climb from 18.3 to 22.0. Meanwhile, opponents’ points off turnovers drop from 18.8 when the Nuggets are on the road to 15.8 when they’re at home. Opponents’ fast break points similarly fall from 13.4 to 10.9. In short, when the Nuggets are at home, they’re scoring more off opponents’ mistakes and pushing the tempo for more easy transition baskets. Opponents, on the other hand, are making more mistakes and playing slower than normal. To escape the first round, the Warriors will need to buck these trends.

We know Curry can score, but more important this series will be how well he can distribute the ball and spread the offense. He’ll have to read the defense and adjust to what Denver throws at him – if Lawson is on him, do the dance and score at will. If the likes of Andre Iguodala or Corey Brewer are on him, he needs to take them off the dribble and get others involved.

The Nuggets are #1 in the league at both shot attempts and points in the paint. The Warriors  must a) get back on D in transition and b) get some magic healthy potion for Andrew Bogut.

Warriors are going to get a whole bunch of shot attempts from beyond the arc. Even more than you are used to. Denver is second to last in the league at defending the three-point shot, while the Warriors were one of the best-shooting teams from the three-point line.

With Gallo out, it’ll be important for Wilson Chandler to make an impact, especially on the offensive end. He’s an upgrade defensively and in terms of just pure hustle/athleticism, but Gallo is much more dependable on offense. Chandler can hit the 3 and take his defenders off the dribble; he has all the ability, but needs to consciously make a decision to shoot often. He’s projected to get 16 pts and 6 rebs in game 1.

Dessert

G. State: 47% two-point defense, +2.2 rebounding, -1.5 TO’S, 8.0 treys, #4 full season pace

AccuScore Preview

The Knicks are solid 75.9% favorites over the Celtics in game 1. After 10,000 simulations, the average score was 101-93. The Knicks are favored by 7 points and covered that spread in approximately 53% of the simulations. There is a 56.2% chance the total combined score will be over 189.5.

Projected Stats (via AccuScore)

Paul Pierce: 16 pts ( 42% FG), 6 rebs, 5 asts

Kevin Garnett: 13 pts, 9 rebs, 1 blk

–

Carmelo Anthony: 29 pts (44%), 7 rebs, 3 asts

J.R. Smith: 19 pts (42%), 5 rebs, 3 asts,

Appetizer

New York took the season series from Boston 3-1. Three weeks ago, the Knicks beat the Celtics 108-89. While everyone is focusing on the Melo-Pierce matchup, the potentially more game-changing one will be the battle of the 6th men (J.R. Smith & Jordan Crawford). With very little front-court scoring other than Melo, the Knicks have to get offense elsewhere and J.R. has been that guy all season. You’re probably like, huhh? Crawford? Crawford doesn’t get the same attention as Smith, and rightfully so, but he, too, is very streaky. We’ll see how often they can get to the FT line, and which one can be the more efficient player.

Main Course

Even though it seems like NY should run away with this series, this is exactly the type of series Boston would win. The possessions are more limited in the playoffs when compared to the regular season, and Boston’s defense will give NY trouble. I just think NY starts strong, and Boston will adjust appropriately.

For game 1 (and really the whole series), Boston has to run the NY perimeter players off that three-point line. The only way to disrupt the NY offense’s rhythm is by getting them to scramble; you do not want them to get comfortable at the arc. Look for the impact Avery Bradley makes on the NY ball-handlers. He’s a pesky defender with the propensity to cause turnovers and we’ll probably see him on both Shumpert and Smith.

For New York, there’s not much to say for the offense. It’ll depend on if the outside shots are going in, and that’s that. Their defense has improved as the season has progressed, and with Chandler hopefully being healthy now, it’ll be interesting to see if their defense can stay up to par with Boston’s.

Paul Pierce will go nuts this series, count on that. He’ll get his buckets at the most important parts of the game, making me think Boston might be able to steal one of the first two games. In his last 13 games against the Knicks, Pierce is averaging 27.8 points per game on 49% shooting from beyond the arc. Anthony is averaging 28.1 points in his last eight games against the Celtics.

One more thing – because of everything that’s happened this week, Boston will be playing with a lot of pride. I don’t think it’ll get them a win in the first game, but game two will be scary for Knicks fans. I can’t see Boston losing games 3 or 4 at home, not after this past week. That crowd won’t let them.

Dessert

• Offensive Efficiency: New York (3rd overall), Boston (22nd)

• Defensive Efficiency: New York (15th), Boston (5th)

• Effective Field Goal Difference: New York (13th), Boston (8th)

• Free-Throw Rate Difference: New York (17th), Boston (21st)

• Turnover Rate Difference: New York (4th), Boston (13th)

• Offensive Rebound Rate Difference: New York (14th), Boston (30th)

• Pace: New York (27th), Boston (20th)

• True Shooting Percentage: New York (10th), Boston (12th)

(Numbers via of game 80)

Game Prediction

Even though I think this series will be competitive, I think NY comes out strong in game 1. They’re at home, itching for some playoff wins, and I have a feeling that a whole bunch of their 3s are going to go in. AccuScore projects them to make 10/26 from beyond the arc; I wouldn’t be surprised if they got up to 15 makes. Boston will adjust and cut down those 3s as the series continues, but it’ll be raining at MSG tomorrow morning.

Knicks win 101-88.

Game 1 – Sat April 20 Boston at New York 3:00PM ABC

Game 2 – Tue April 23 Boston at New York 8:00PM TNT

Game 3 – Fri April 26 New York at Boston 8:00PM ESPN

Game 4 – Sun April 28 New York at Boston 1:00PM ABC/R Game

5 * Wed May 1 Boston at New York TBD TBD Game

6 * Fri May 3 New York at Boston TBD TBD Game

7 * Sun May 5 Boston at New York TBD TBD

1. St. Louis Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma: You can’t really knock this pick because of an injury riddled 2011 campaign where the previous Rookie of the Year struggle. I expect him to bounce back in his junior season and make the next steps to becoming a franchise quarterback. (original pick: Bradford)

2. Detroit Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska: Instantly the identity of Mo’town upon his arrival, although he has demonstrated questionable character, he’s one of the elite defensive tackles. (original pick: Suh)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida: While Gerald McCoy still has a lot of potential, he hasn’t shown much in flashes as he’s been primarily injured. Paul is one of the most feared defensive tackles in the entire league. (original pick: DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma)

4. Washington Redskins – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma: McCoy wouldn’t fall far as Washington would take him and then not have to spend money in the 2011 offseason. Though Georgia’s DT Geno Atkins is arguably better than both Suh or McCoy, I would think McCoy’s versatility in position would be more important here. McCoy could play both NT or DE in the 3/4. (original pick: OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma)

5. Kansas City Chiefs – S Earl Thomas, Texas: While they drafted a safety originally in ’10, Earl Thomas has been a revelation for Pete Carroll in Seattle. Safeties don’t usually go top-5, but in this case the Chiefs elected to defy convention. Though Berry has been an above average safety (missed the majority of 2011 with an injury), Thomas has been that much better. (original pick: S Eric Berry, Tennessee).

6. Seattle Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma St: Seattle keeps this pick the same, but now 14 will have to change due to Thomas being selected. Okung was arguably this draft’s best tackle prospect, and he’s proven his worth as a member of the Seahawks. (original pick: Okung).

7. Cleveland Browns – CB Joe Haden, Florida: Haden has played well for Cleveland, with 173 career tackles and 12 takeaways. Has been a bright spot on the young Cleveland defense. If only he had someone across from him in the secondary. (original pick: Haden).

8. Oakland Raiders – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona: Gronk is one of the many game changing TE’s from this draft, and Rolando McClain ended up being a 2-down linebacker who was granted his release earlier this offseason (recently signed with Baltimore). The Gronk has been the game’s best tight end since being drafted, it’s almost surprising he’s lasted this long. (original pick: ILB Rolando McClain, Alabama).

9. Buffalo Bills - TE Jimmy Graham, Miami: Huge jump for Graham, as he’s also one of the young game changing TEs. Spiller well nice in the last few games, but the Bills still have Fred Jackson (even in his old age, he’s still somewhat effective). Graham would finally give their offense some explosion, you simply can’t pass on him here. (original pick: RB CJ Spiller, Clemson).

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Geno Atkins, Georgia: A name many do not recognize, Atkins was a 4th round pick of the Bengals. He’s arguably the best 3-technique defensive tackle since Warren Sapp in his heyday with the Tampa Bucks. Atkins has already compiled 23 sacks, and was named to the 2012 All Pro team as well. Tyson Alualu was a bit of a shocker at the time, but is still a good young player, but Atkins is definitely the pick here. (original pick: DT Tyson Alualu, Cal).

11. San Francisco 49ers – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma: The 49ers took OT Anthony Davis from Rutgers, and although he recently received a large contract extension, Williams has already gone to the Pro Bowl (2012) and doesn’t have never-ending concerns about his weight. Williams, while he’s just been above-average represents a lot of value and potential here. (original pick, OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers)

12. San Diego Chargers – RB CJ Spiller, Clemson: Ryan Mathews had a great sophomore campaign, but I worry about injuries for him going forward.  Spiller isn’t a traditional running back, but he’s proven to be a flux running back capable of being a big threat in the passing game (106 career receptions, improvement every season). He’s also developed as a rusher; as Buffalo’s starter in 2012, he gained over 1,200 yards on the ground. (original pick: RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State).

13. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida: Brandon Graham has been a disappointment since being selected from Michigan while Dunlap had 9.5 sacks as a rookie and would be a great bookend to Trent Cole. Dunlap is also a valuable run defender; he’d be a good fit for the Eagles’ new 3-4 defensive alignment as well. (original pick: DE/OLB Brandon Graham, Michigan).

14. Seattle Seahawks - S Eric Berry, Tennessee: While they made the right choice originally, the Chiefs have already taken Thomas off Seattle’s board. Although Berry missed this past season with a torn ACL, he can very well be the next great safety. (original pick: Thomas)

15. New York Giants - TE Aaron Hernandez, Florida: His time in Oakland & Kansas City have shown that Kevin Boss wasn’t a great TE, but rather a product of playing with a talented quarterback. With Pierre-Paul already drafted, Hernandez would give a great weapon to Eli. (original pick: Pierre-Paul).

16. Tennessee Titans – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho: The Titans now have a problem with their interior offensive lineman, but why not solve the problem before it comes a hassle? It’s not like their starting guards, Jake Scott & Eugene Amano, were great. The Titans’ 1st round pick. defensive end Derrick Morgan, has been a huge disappointment and only has 10.5 career sacks. (original pick: DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech).

17. San Francisco 49ers – ILB Navorro Bowman, Penn State: With general manager Trent Baalke missing Iupati by just one pick, I would assume he would draft the best player available. In this case, it would happen to be their future 4th round pick, Bowman, who’s already been named to two All-Pro teams and is unquestionably one of the best interior linebackers in the game. (original pick: Iupati)

18. Pittsburgh Steelers - C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida: It was a great pick at the time, it worked out, why change it? (original pick: Pouncey).

19. Atlanta Falcons – DE Greg Hardy, Indiana: For Atlanta’s needs, there really doesn’t seem to be a strong fit left on the board thats stocked with skill positions & offensive lineman. Most of the defensive ends became busts, but Hardy was a former top prospect that fell to the 6th round after a bad offseason. He produced in 2012 with 11 sacks; he’s the Falcons’ pick here. (original pick: OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri).

20. Houston Texans – CB Devin McCourty, Rutgers: Houston went with the right position, just the wrong player. McCourty was an absolute beast as a rookie, but his play as tailed off once defenses keyed in on his tendencies and attacked the other Patriot corners instead. Kareem Jackson has somewhat redeemed himself after a horrid first year, but McCourty is undoubtedly the better player at this stage in their careers (original pick: CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama)

21. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma: The Bengals were a franchise that stupidly paid WR Antonio Bryant a massive $28 million contract during the 2010 only to release him after the preseason due to chronic knee problems. While they still had Chad Ochocinco, Bryant is too much value to pass on and would be a great building block for their future. (original pick: TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma)

22. Denver Broncos – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech: It was a surprise when the Broncos drafted Thomas before Bryant, and in some ways, this redraft has corrected that mistake. However, Thomas had a brilliant year in 2012 playing with Peyton Manning, making the Pro Bowl and exceed all expectations. He’s one of the better, young receivers in the game and should continue to develop. (original pick: Thomas)

23. Green Bay Packers – RT Anthony Davis, Rutgers: The Packers selected Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga originally, but he’s had injury concerns and doesn’t have the same potential as Davis. It’s a bit of a gamble, but Davis is the better athlete and can develop into one of the better all-around tackles in the league. (original pick: RT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa).

24. Dallas Cowboys: ILB Sean Lee, Penn State – With Bryant already off the board, I would think the Cowboys would select the player that’s arguably their defense’s 2nd best defender (behind OLB/DE Demarcus Ware). Lee is a near elite inside linebacker, but he will be a question mark heading into the 2013 season when the defense changes schemes under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. (original pick: Bryant).

25. Denver Broncos: RB Ryan Matthews, Fresno State – Though the team selected Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno in the 2009 1st round, he’s proven to be a bust and the available prospects don’t really fit the Broncos’ needs. Matthews, when healthy, has proven to be one of the better backs in the league. (original pick: QB Tim Tebow, Florida)

26. Arizona Cardinals – ILB Daryl Washington, TCU: Washington is secretly one of the best inside linebackers in the game. Though they eventually drafted him in the 2nd, skipping on him now would mean missing on him entirely as he would surely get drafted before the end of the 1st. (original pick: NT Dan Williams, Tennessee)

27. New England Patriots – CB Alterraun Verner, UCLA: There were concerns about Verner during the draft process, but he’s proven to be one of the better slot corners in the league. It’s a shame that McCourty is no longer available; the Rutgers prospect is a great fit for the Belichick defense. (original pick: McCourty)

28. Miami Dolphins – WR Antonio Brown, Central Michigan: And you thought the 2012 Dolphins receiving core was bad! Heading into the draft, the team had Brian Hartline & Greg Camarillo as their probable starters. Brown has emerged as the Steelers’ best receiver and was well worth his 6th round selection. (original pick: DT/DE Jared Odrick, Penn State)

29. New York Jets – OLB Brandon Graham, Michigan: Graham was drafted waaay too early after being compared to current Steeler and former Michigan defensive end Lamarr Woodley. Still, Graham has shown ability when he’s played and would be a great fit for the Jets, who suffered through the combo of Calvin Pace & Bryan Thomas for too long. (original pick: CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State)

30. Detroit Lions – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama: The Detroit secondary was atrocious in 2010, and while Jackson needed time to develop, he would have become a starter for the Lions by 2011. He still has loads of ability, Jackson should continue his path as an above-average starting cornerback. (original pick: RB Jahvid Best, Cal)

31. Indianapolis Colts – DT Tyson Alualu, Cal: The Colts went into the draft with Antonio Johnson & Daniel Muir as their starting defensive ends. Needless to say, they needed an upgrade. While Alualu ended up being drafted overdrafted by the Jags, he’s still been a decent player for a bad defense. He’d start for this Colts squad, and he would have been a great fit once they transitioned to being a 3-4. (original pick: DE Jerry Hughes, TCU)

32. New Orleans Saints - TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma: The Saints’ 4th round selection Graham may be the best value pick in this entire draft. Unfortunately for general manager Mickey Loomis, he’s unavailable due to now being a top-10 selection. However, Gresham remains great value at the end of the 1st and has excelled in Cincinnati. While he’s not the same level of player as Graham, he’s comparable and would give quarterback Drew Brees another option on offense. (original pick: CB Patrick Robinson, Florida State).

Best Drafts:

- Cincinnati Bengals: This draft established the Bengal’s defensive identity as arguably their two best defenders were selected in 2010. However, outside these three selections, the Bengals have received little contributions from their other draft picks. In fact, only one other outside of this list (CB Brandon Ghee) is still on the team. Still, Atkins is one of the best at his position, and the other two are important players for the organization.

1. DT Geno Atkins, Georgia: A former 4th round pick to now being top 10, Atkins is a revelation at his position and arguably should be the 1st defensive tackle taken in this redraft. (original draft selection: 4th round, 120th overall)

2. TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma: Already been to a Pro Bowl, he’s one of the better all around tight ends in the game and should continue to grow. (original draft selection: 1st round, 21st overall)

3. DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida: As evidenced in his rise up the board in the redraft, he’s been an excellent player for the Bengals. He offers great run support as well as above-average pass rushing skills. (original draft selection: 2nd round, 54th overall)

Denver Broncos: This will forever be remembered as the Tebow draft, but besides these three players I’ve singled out, the Broncos drafted other players that contributed. 4th round pick C JD Walton starts for the team, and CB Perrish Cox was a valuable cornerback for the 49ers Super Bowl run this past year. If Cox had stayed out of trouble (sexual assault charge), he’d still be a Bronco.

1. WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech: A player who during the draft process was thought to be one dimensional, Thomas has developed into a Pro Bowl player under Peyton Manning. (original selection: 1st round, 22nd overall)

2. OG Zane Beadles, Utah: A Pro Bowl guard, he’s a strong run blocker but also an above average pass blocker. Guard isn’t a sexy position, but Beadles should hold down the fort for the next several seasons at right guard in Denver. (original selection: 2nd round, 45th overall).

3. WR Eric Decker, Minnesota: The Broncos took a chance when drafting decker, as he suffered a serious foot injury during his senior year as a Gopher. However, Decker repaid Denver’s faith and has emerged as one of the most consistent receivers in the game, having one of the best sets of hands in the entire league. (original selection: 3rd round, 87th overall)

- New England Patriots: The Patriots are usually labeled for having a great draft, but the praise is sometimes unwarranted. They’ve had some truly awful drafts (2007), but this draft definitely seems to be a near historic one for the franchise. In addition to the three profiled selections, the Patriots also drafted current starting MLB Brandon Spikes in the 2nd, and added P Zoltan Mesko in the 6th.

1. TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona: Gronk entered the draft process with significant question marks due to a serious back injury he suffered while in college. He didn’t even play his junior year at Arizona, but head coach Bill Belichick had seen enough to warrant a 2nd round selection on the athletic freak. (original selection: 2nd round, 42nd overall)

2. TE Aaron Hernandez, Florida: Like Gronk, Hernandez entered the draft process with several question marks, but unlike Gronk, they had to due with his character not his medical history. Hernandez failed a drug test at the combine, which certainly cost his stock to drop. However, he fell into a perfect situation and has been a model citizen since being drafted by New England; he’s bought into the Patriot lifestyle. (original pick: 4th round, 113th overall)

3. CB Devin McCourty, Rutgers: It was no secret that Belichick loved McCourty during the draft process, the only question was whether he would still be available at their pick. He was, and the pick has paid off as he grabbed 7 interceptions as a rookie. He now shifts between corner and free safety, but his long arms make him a serious threat to opposing quarterbacks. (1st round, 27th overall).

- San Francisco: Though GM Trent Baalke made some bad selections (S Taylor Mays in the 2nd), this was an outstanding draft overall for the club. The double selection of offensive lineman in the 1st is one of the primary reasons behind their recent turnaround, but they’ve also had several contributors on special teams from this draft including RB Anthony Dixon & KR/WR Kyle Williams.

1. ILB Navorro Bowman, Penn State: He’s arguably as good as fellow starting 49ers inside linebacker Patrick Willis, but he was even more of a steal considering where he was drafted. (original pick: 3rd round, 91st overall).

2. OG Mike Iupati, Idaho: Iupati is arguably the game’s best guard. He’s one of the reasons why the 49ers have one of the best run games, he should continue to be a strong pass protector as well. (original selection: 1st round, 17th overall).

3. RT Anthony Davis, Rutgers: Davis was an athletic specimen during the draft process, but he’s also a player that had to go to the right location in order to be success. Head coach John Harbaugh’s tough love approach has worked; he’s kept his weight reasonable and was recently granted a nice extension due to his performance. (original selection: 1st round, 11th overall).

- Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks made perfect selections in the 1st, but their non-1st round picks have yielded decent production as well. 2nd round pick WR Golden Tate will always be remembered for his “Fail Mary” grab to “beat” the Packers in 2012. 4th round selection CB Walter Thurmond has an opportunity to battle for the dime cornerback position despite playing in a loaded secondary.

1. S Earl Thomas, Texas: Safety may not be the most important position on defense, but Thomas has become one of the best as his position since entering the league. He’s already been selected to two All-Pro teams, and the Seattle secondary is arguably the toughest in the league. (original selection: 1st round, 14th overall)

2. OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State: Okung was this draft’s best tackle prospect, yet the Redskins passed on him for Oklahoma’s Trent Williams. That was perfectly fine for the Seahawks as Okung was named to his 1st Pro Bowl in 2012 (Williams also attended).

3. S Kam Chancellor, Virginia Tech:  Chancellor had an outstanding 2011, making the Pro Bowl after beginning the season as his secondary’s biggest question mark. Though he failed to record an interception or sack in 2012, he will hopefully remain a big part of this Seattle defense. (original selection: 5th round, 113th overall).

Return to the NFL Bible

After analyzing both players, I’ve come to the conclusion: both are strikingly alike and share similar potential as well as position versatility. Both played tackle after transferring from Saddleback, but their natural positions could be as guards in the NFL. Either way, they both have very different but similar backgrounds which are well worth a second examination:

Menelik Watson, Florida State – A native of Manchester, England, Watson grew up playing futbol, not football. A stud soccer player at a young age, Watson eventually switched to basketball in his attempt to remove himself from poverty and the english street life. Watson joined a traveling international team, eventually earning a scholarship to play basketball at Marist College in New York. Before taking up basketball, Watson attempted to become a boxer. Realizing his potential as an offensive lineman, Watson was recruited to Saddleback Community College in California, where he teamed with Kyle Long along their offensive line. Watson eventually transferred to Florida State, where he won the starting left tackle position during the 2012 Fall camp.

Watson impressed as a replacement starter for the Seminoles, a squad that lost both of their 2011 starting tackles to the 2012 NFL Draft (Zebie Sanders & Andrew Datko). Due to his athletic background, Watson shows above average intangibles including an explosive first step. He has a powerful punch (I wonder if his boxing experienced helped…), and has decent technique despite limited experience. He bends well and fails to give up too much leverage to opposing defensive ends; his above average mobility allows him to reach the 2nd level while run blocking. At 6’5, 310 lbs, Watson has prototypical size for a starting right tackle.

Despite his age (25), he’s still very raw due to his limited experience. He’s only played two seasons of football and has a lot to learn, but he’s shown the ability to adapt and learn on the fly. Not everyone can start at Florida State. He has to work on his hand placement, but that will come with time and proper coaching. He’s prone to penalties as he grabs opposing players in an attempt to slow their pursuit of quarterbacks. He also needs to work on his footwork. I question his strength as he declined to bench at the combine.

Overall, Watson is a highly intriguing prospect. He’s only played two seasons, yet he was a starter at a ACC team where he allowed a single sack across 12 starts. Due to his diverse athletic background, you can expect Watson to play faster than his 5.29 40-yard dash time indicates. He has a big frame and should continue to get stronger with proper weight training. He could become an elite right tackle, or he could falter and become a guard. Is he a top 10 pick? No, but he could sneak into the late 1st round as it’s a top heavy tackle class.

Kyle Long, Oregon -

Long, the son of Howie and brother of Chris, has an interesting background. Kyle was originally drafted in the 23rd round of the 2008 MLB draft, but spurned their offer to play for the Florida State baseball team. He lasted just one semester in Tallahassee as college life caught up to the baseball prospect; he was caught drinking and driving as well as academically ineligible. After contemplating his future, Long enrolled at Saddleback and began his collegiate football career as a defensive end. After a somewhat unimpressive sophomore year, Long transitioned to the offensive line where he eventually earned multiple division 1 scholarship offers after his 2011 season. Long chose the University of Oregon, where he was successful in 10 starts. After this past season, Long applied for but was denied for a medical redshirt, thus not receiving a 6th year in college. His family has referred to Kyle as being the best athlete in the family, high remarks from a father who’s in the NFL Hall of Fame and the older son who was the 2nd overall pick in 2008.

Long looks every bit of a starting NFL lineman: he’s got great size (6’6, 313 lbs), thick arms, and above average agility (4.94 40-yard dash). He’s not as inexperienced as other prospects profiled in these write ups; Long won two high school championships. His arm length (33+ inch) make him a stout pass defender. He’s also displayed great leg strength and is able to explode off the line of scrimmage when run blocking. He’s got great mobility and can pull across the line to provide blocking on the opposite side of the ball. He’s a perfect fit for a zone blocking scheme and has near elite footwork despite his size. He also plays with an attitude; coaches like players that back up their skill players, which Long has shown in the past.

Despite his positives, Long still lacks great technique due to the limited college experience he received. He shows a tendency to miss on his punches, often leading to him being off balanced and giving the defender a huge advantage at getting after his quarterback. On run plays, he will dive at linebackers, eliminating himself from a play and creating a potential penalty. For a player of his pedigree, he doesn’t show confidence in the open space, often second guessing his assignment and confusing himself. His DUI brings up character concerns, more so than these other prospects, I’d be concerned about his love for the game and potential dedication. He had the opportunity to play college football straight from high school but instead chose baseball.

Overall, I like Long’s potential, perhaps more so than any of these other profiled prospects. I think he shows enough versatility to fit most offensive schemes and could develop into an elite guard as he’s shown great ability as a pass protector is an above average run blocker. For teams that use smaller, athletic tackles, Long would be a great fit on the right side. I wouldn’t want to try him on the left side, his thick arms aren’t long enough. I’m worried as he’s displayed loads of bad technique during his lone season at Oregon, there’s always the chance he can’t correct his wrongs. Still, the potential is there to be a starting guard or tackle. I would pass on him until the early to mid 2nd round, but he could fall as far as the middle of the 3rd round.

1. Houston: Head Coach Gary Kubiak (8th season), 2012 season: 12-4 (1st in division, lost in AFC Divisional), GM Rick Smith

The Texans started the season off with a bang, as they looked like one of the best (if not the best) teams in the AFC after a blazing 11-1 record through thirteen weeks. However, injuries crept onto the squad as several key players went down and were lost for the season. Houston stumbled to just a lone win through their last four games, dropping down to the AFC’s third seed. However, they did manage to win their first playoff game and when healthy, have a consistent offense. Cutting RT Eric Winston was a big gamble, but Derek Newton should improve heading into his second year in the starting unit. Left tackle Duane Brown continues to be overrated, he provides great protection for quarterback Matt Schaub and is an elite run blocker for Arian Foster. Defensively, their pass coverage somewhat improved and they maintained a decent pass rush despite losing DE/OLB Mario Williams in free agency. Arguably their best defensive player, ILB Brian Cushing, should be 100% by the start of training camp after tearing his ACL midseason. Cushing will be a big part of their next season’s improvement, along with the further development of 2012 Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt, the future can be bright in Houston.

1. Running Back – Arian Foster (5th season): Foster has gone from undrafted afterthought to being the 2nd best running back in just four seasons. He’s a perfect fit for their zone blocking running scheme and has had constant production since gaining the starting position. This former Volunteer has been named to three straight Pro Bowls and has made two All-Pro teams in just a short time, almost unprecedented for an undrafted player. Foster has gained over 4,500 rushing yards in just four seasons, and he only started a single game his rookie year. His numbers have slightly dropped the past three seasons, but I attribute that to a more dynamic, balanced offense. He’s had his share of injuries over the past few years, including a bad hamstring injury sustained during the 2011 preseason.

2. Defensive End – JJ Watt (3rd): Watt is an absolute beast. Nothing more to be said, if you don’t believe me see his AFC Defensive Player of the Year award from this past season. It’s only his 2nd year, but the sky’s the limit from the former pizza delivery driver, he can rewrite record books in the South. His athleticism could change the way his position is thought of in the 3-4. Watt finished 2012 with an outstanding stat line: 81 tackles, 20.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles (2 recovered).

3. Inside Linebacker – Brian Cushing (5th): Before going on the injured reserved, Cushing was in the same talks as NaVarro Bowman and Patrick Willis for the league’s best inside linebackers. He’ll look to regain his pre-injury form in 2013, and this defensive unit should return to prominence under DC Wade Phillips next season. Though they have 2010 4th round pick Daryl Sharpton on their roster, he looked average at best during his five regular season starts this past year. Before Connor Barwin left as a free agent, there were mumors of transitioning OLB Brooks Reed inside, but that now looks doubtful. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them bring competition through this year’s draft.

4. Quarterback – Matt Schaub (10th): Schaub supposedly played through 2012 with an undisclosed injury, so perhaps his late season down swing can be explained. But when he’s healthy, he’s a great gamemanager for Gary Kubiak. He’s not a game changer, but he can move the chains. In his six years in Houston, Schaub currently sits on this stat line: 65.1% completions, 20,911 passing yards, 114 passing touchdowns & 64 interceptions. Good, but not great. The team could look to draft his replacement now as I’m not sure TJ Yates is a worthy apprentice.

5. Wide Receiver – Andre Johnson (11th): Originally I had Andre Johnson higher on the list, but I’m afraid that nagging injuries have caught up with this former Hurricane great. We’ll see a more dramatic statistical fall in the next few seasons as father time catches up with him. Still, he had production in 2012 and garners consideration among their 5 best players of his positional groups. They need to find a young compliment to Johnson if they want to maintain an above average passing attack in 2013.

Draft: The Texans are very top heavy, meaning they have great individual players but still lack depth in important areas. None was more apparent following the season ending loss of Cushing, as both Barrett Rudd & Bradie James aren’t expected back and under performed in their stars’ absence. Drafting their replacement is a priority for general manager Rick Smith, perhaps they’ll be willing to gamble on one of the 1st round talents like Alec Olgetree (if he falls far enough) from Georgia or Arthur Brown of Kansas State. Wide Receiver is also expected to be addressed, and I wouldn’t rule out additional secondary help, especially since recent signee FS Ed Reed was already contemplating retirement. They also need to find a young, compliment to Johnson, so a receiver in the first few rounds would make sense.

2. Indianapolis: Head Coach Chuck Pagano (2nd year), 2012: 11-5 (2nd in division, loss in AFC Wildcard), GM Ryan Grigson

To anyone who watched the Colts in 2011, it must have felt like an episode of the Twilight Zone to see the franchise back in the playoffs this past year. No, Andrew Luck is that good. While it may be not be a rerun, it’s a remake of the old regime as owner Jim Irsay can proudly say he again has the best, young quarterback in the league. Obviously, it wasn’t just the rookie quarterback out of Stanford, there were a lot of factors that went into the Colts returning from a year absence to the playoffs.

First, new head coach Chuck Pagano unexpectedly had to leave to team to treat his new diagnosis of leukemia. Secondly, the team underwent a dramatic defensive philosophical change as they switched from a Tampa-2 4-3 scheme to a formation Pagano ran as the coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens. New general manager Ryan Grigson was also given a near empty cupboard as the previous GM Bill Polian built his franchise around a sole player, Peyton Manning. If a team with such little talent made the playoffs in this style (winning close games, little talent), prepare to be blown away when Luck & Pagano are running on all cylinders. This could end up being a special team.

1. Quarterback: Andrew Luck (2nd): After seeing Luck play in college up close, I firmly believe he has the potential to become an all-time great. He’s got everything a modern quarterback needs to be successful both mentally & athletically. He has a rocket arm with pin point accuracy. He also has elite speed for the position, but doesn’t rely on his legs to pick up 1st downs unless it’s necessary. While he threw 18 interceptions on the season, he significantly cut back his turnovers as he threw just 1 pick in his last four games. If there’s any young player I would bet on developing and becoming a hall of fame player, it’s luck. He’s just that damn good.

2. Wide Receiver: Reggie Wayne (12th), TY Hilton (2nd), Darrius Heyward-Bey (4th): I’ll be honest, I thought Wayne was washed up after a subpar 2011. I wasn’t alone, but all analysts seem to forgot how big of a dropoff playing with the likes of Kerry Collins & Curtis Painter can be for a wide out who’s used to Manning. Wayne had a victorious rebound in 2012 as he led the league in receptions and played at an All-Pro level (he did not receive this honor though). Hilton was a surprise pick on draft day, but he excelled and jelled with Luck as the young speedster contributed 50 receptions for over 850 yards with only one start. Grigson opted to not resign Donnie Avery (60/781/7) and instead opted to sign former top-10 pick Bey, who’s been a disappointment since entering the league in 2010. He has the ability and speed to be a playmaker, maybe he’s underperformed due to horrendous quarterback play in Oakland.

3. Secondary: CBs Vontae Davis (4th) & Greg Toler (4th), FS Antoine Bethea (7th), SS LaRon Landry (6th):  The Colts have spent this offseason (and loads of their cap space) in upgrading their secondary. Grigson added Toler & Landry in March, but also traded for Davis (a former 1st round pick) before the start of the 2012 season. This new group should dramatically improve their 2012 numbers (21st against the pass with over 236 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks). Landry & Davis are have the most potential of this unit, but they both have their flaws. Landry needs to prove he can stay healthy, while Davis needs to maximize his abilities and not gamble on so many big plays. Bethea is the lone, consistent performer of this group as he’s been with the organization the longest. If this group can start to mimic Pagano’s Baltimore secondary, opposing quarterbacks should be worried.

4. Tight Ends: Coby Fleener (2nd) & Dewayne Allen (2nd): Immediately after drafting Luck last year, Grigson wisely decided to surround his franchise quarterback with loads of talent. Two of those picks happened to be tight ends, the modern wildcards of the NFL offense. Allen overachieved and became the third option for Indy in the passing game. He’s arguably the more “complete” tight end of these two, but Fleener was drafted higher in that year’s draft. Fleener, Luck’s tight end at Stanford, had a somewhat disappointing first year as he adjusted to the speed of the league. He started nine games, but only managed 26 receptions and a hair over 10 yards per catch. However, Fleener & Allen combined for 86 receptions, over 1,100 receiving yards, and a total of 5 touchdowns. Those numbers will rise in 2013 as they become a more prominent function of this Colts offense.

5. Defensive Line: DEs Cory Redding (11th) & Ricky Jean-Francois (5th), NT Aubrayo Franklin (11th): This isn’t the sexiest defensive line in the league, and although they performed poorly in 2012, I expect them to dramatically improve. Last year’s unit only allowed 14 touchdowns, but they’ve Redding was brought over when Pagano became head coach; he was the Colts’ most consistent performer on their line last year. He led all defensive lineman in sacks (2.0) and was above average against the run. Grigson signed both Franklin & Jean-Francois this offseason to fill holes. The signing of Franklin provides Pagano’s defense with a true & experience nose tackle, but the key signing is Jean-Francois. Though he was limited to a backup role on the 49ers, he produced when he saw action. Tremendously talented, size concerns dropped him in the 2009 draft. He signed one of the biggest contracts this summer, but he could pay off if he develops into a pass rushing threat off the edge.

Draft: Grigson can lead the Colts in many different directions this year, but he’ll have to be wise with his selections as he enters with just six picks. Despite adding two starters this offseason, he should continue to invest in their offensive line: you must protect your franchise quarterback. Additionally, he should provide Pagano with more athletes on defense including adding more prototypical 3-4 outside, pass rushing linebackers. If LSU’s Barkevious Mingo were to somehow fall, I could see the Grigson trading up to land a premier talent. They could also use a starting-caliber cornerback as Greg Toler might be better suited as their nickel back and in slot situations. There’s not a ton of talent on this team, but there’s a lot of heart; more drafts like 2012 will continue to make this franchise competitive as they grow closer to reclaiming the AFC South.

3. Tennessee Titans: Head Coach Mike Munchak (3rd season), 2012: 6-10 (3rd in division), GM Ruston Webster

Only one word can describe the Tennessee Titan’s 2012 campaign: disappointment. The previous season looked promising as the franchise barely missed the playoffs, losing a tiebreaker to the Cincinnati Bengals for the 6th seed in the 2011 AFC playoffs. The team, and especially quarterback Jake Locker, regressed this year as they stumbled to a 6-10 record. The Titans could gain yards, nor could they stop opposing offenses; both their offenses and defenses fell almost ten positions in league-wide rankings in 2012.

2013 will be a make-or-break season for head coach Mike Munchak and his staff as they can no longer afford to dwell in mediocrity. Since firing former head coach Jeff Fisher in 2011, the team has gone just 15-17 over the two year stretch. The once powerful run game has been slowed as opposing defenses have stacked the box against the Titans and their running back, Chris Johnson. Johnson, formerly a 2,000 yard rusher, has been inconsistent since his 2009 blistering campaign; his numbers have fluctuated and he’s often started the season poorly. Defensively, they have talent at their skill positions as they have two quality, starting defensive ends and have a strong secondary. The majority of their players on defense are young and developing, but they should continue to get better with more experience. Watch out for their linebacking core as all three play well within defensive coordinator Jerry Gray’s system. While their talent is encouraging, this team will have to step up and rise to the challenge in 2013. I don’t expect them to make the playoffs, but they’ll have to be consistently competitive for Munchak to come back to Nashville in 2014.

1. Offensive Line: LT Michael Roos (9th), LG Andy Levitre (5th), C Fernando Velasco (4th), RT David Stewart (9th): The Titans finished 14th in Pro Football Focus’ annual offensive line ratings, but they were hurt by the atrocious play by their guards as both Leroy Harris & Steve Hutchinson struggled (both are no longer on the team). The unheralded story of this franchise has been the development of Roos & Stewart, as both are invaluable players to the organization and steady players since day 1. Roos is a 3x All-Pro honoree, while Stewart made the 2nd team in 2008. Levitre was a high prized free agent pick up from Buffalo; he was this year’s best guard in free agency. Velasco played well in his first year of starting, he can be a potential building block for the unit moving forward.

2. Running Back: Chris Johnson (6th): Johnson was a shocking pick by the Titans in the 2008 draft as he was an unheralded prospect and the team had Lendale White fresh off a 1,000 yard campaign. However, the franchise’s strategy paid off as Johnson has become one of the best running backs in the league, surpassing 1,000 every year’s he’s been in the league. An owner of a lifetime 4.7 yards per carry average, Johnson is approaching 7,000 career rushing yards in only 5 years. That’s comparable to Adrian Peterson, who’s often referred to being the best. However, Johnson has started the past two seasons somewhat slow as he’s taken more time to play into shape. He’s one of the fastest players in the game (4.24 40-yard), but will have to become a better in between the tackles performer to help the team’s overall run game. Plays of 40+ yards are great, but picking up the tough 3-4 plays are more important for a team’s well being.

3. Secondary – CBs Jason McCourty (5th) & Alterraun Verner (4th), SS Bernard Pollard (8th), FS Michael Griffin (7th): You can’t sugar coat it, the Titans’ secondary were among the worst in the league in 2012. Ranking 26th in the league in passing yards given up, the unit allowed opposing quarterbacks to rack up nearly 4,000 yards along with 31 touchdowns. Prone to giving up big plays, this unit wasn’t helped by an anemic rush support and below average play of former starting strong safety Jordan Babineaux (since released). However, they did compiled 19 interceptions, good for 7th in the league. McCourty & Verner are great building blocks for the future, but they could use more help as Verner should cover slot receivers. Griffin has played like an All-Pro (2010) in the past, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t return to his former self. Pollard should be a huge upgrade over Babineaux and is coming off a recent Super Bowl victory while a Ravens. I expect this unit to morph into one of the better secondaries in the AFC in 2013.

4. Linebackers: SLB Akeem Ayers (3rd), MLB Colin McCarthy (3rd), WLB Zach Brown (2nd): I like the versatility of this group; all three of these young players can rotate positions and contribute to the team in unexpected ways. Of the bunch, I really like Ayers coming out of college where he was a terror for UCLA and was thought to be a potential 1st round pick. He’s the best pass rusher of the bunch, as he finished tied for 2nd in the team with 6 sacks. Brown was a player overshadowed at North Carolina, but he started 12 games as a rookie and finished 2nd in the team with 92 tackles. McCarthy missed nine games last year with a severe concussion. However, after sliding in the draft until the 4th round, he’s been a big contributor and can expect his impact to increase in his third season.

5. Wide Receivers: Kenny Britt (5th), Nate Washington (9th), Kendall Wright (2nd), Damian Williams (4th), Lavelle Hawkins (6th): This unit is a mixture of young talent (Britt, Wright), experience (Washington), and glue/high character players (Williams/Hawkins). Though the team could eventually release Washington to make room for Wright, they’d still have an impressive and explosive unit. The Britt/Wright combo reminds me somewhat of Atlanta’s wide receivers as Britt is the more physical, athletic specimen (like Julio Jones) while Wright is the faster, crisper route runner (like Roddy White). Either Williams & Hawkins could also find themselves on the roster bubble as well, due to the murky situation, but both can contribute as 3rd or 4th receivers on good teams.

Draft: The Titans took care of their biggest need (interior offensive lineman) with free agency with the additions of two new starting guards in Levitre & Robert Turner. However, they have a giant hole in the middle of their defensive line as they need to find someone to pair young tackle Jurrell Casey with. A top defensive tackle, either Utah’s Star Lotulelei or Florida’s Shariff Floyd, could fall to their 10th pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see management trade up. They need to land an impact, defensive player in this draft, especially after using the past few 1st round picks on offensive players. They could also look to add another cornerback or a young safety, as Pollard has been injury prone and hasn’t lasted more than a few years at his previous teams. I wouldn’t rule out general manager Ruston Webster drafting a young, developmental quarterback to eventually give Locker competition. This team is still a draft or two away, but they’ll have to show significant improvement to merit a return in 2014.

4. Jacksonville: Head Coach Gus Bradley (1st year), 2012: 2-14 (4th in division), GM David Caldwell

Well, the Jaguars had to finally bottom out, and they certainly went out in style in 2012. After being the model for a successful expansion franchise in the mid 90’s, their pattern soon soured as the team dwelled in mediocrity. While there was a revival in the mid 2000s which saw the team post four consecutive seasons of .500 ball or better, the Jags have become the bottom dwellers of the AFC south. They’ve regressed from 2nd place in the division in 2010 to arguably the worst team in the league with a two win season in 2012. While it’s fair to attribute the struggles to former general manager Gene Smith and his horrendous drafts, new owner Shahid Khan promises a return to superiority within their division.

The team has question marks across their entire roster as former 1st round pick, quarterback Blaine Gabbert, has failed to materialize as a legitimate passing threat in his two seasons as a starter. Rumors have been floated that they could draft a young signal caller to eventually replace Gabbert, who reportedly gained an inflated ego upon his draft position and has prowling Florida with a sense of entitlement. Star running back Maurice Jones-Drew held out most of the 2012 summer, and his play was sacrificed as he suffered a season ending injury after just six games. Defensively, the team lacks an identity or a true playmaker. Free agent busts litter the lineup, and the entire group could use a re-haul as every starter should (but won’t) face competition in training camp. Overall, this franchise is years away from being relevant in their division, much less their conference. This draft is extremely important as they need to get back on track and gain some long term solutions to several important positions.

1. Wide Receiver: Justin Blackmon (2nd) & Cecil Short (3rd): When a team uses their 5th overall pick on a wide receiver, they better hope he pans out. Early in 2012, it looked like Blackmon was vastly overrated and a potential locker room problem as his work ethic was question. Turns out he needed a better quarterback; his stats significantly rose once the team turned to veteran quarterback Chad Henne in week 9. Though his stats were significantly inflated from a strong week 10 game against their rival Houston Texans (7 receptions, 235 yards, 1 TD), he only had one game under 60 receiving yards the rest of the season. He looks like he can become a legitimate number one receiver. Shorts was a surprise performer in 2012 as no one expected much from the former 4th round pick. Shorts exceeded expectations as he barely missed his first 1,000 yard receiving season in addition to adding 7 touchdowns. These two can combine to create a youthful, long term solution to their receiver problem.

2. Left Tackle: LT Eugene Monroe (5th): It pains me not to include the entire offensive line when signaling out a unit, but Monroe is the only option. In fact, Pro Football Focus pointed him out as the team’s best offensive player, an unusual dignification for a offensive lineman. His contract is nearing it’s end, but it appears that management has made no attempt to sign him to an extension. He graded out at PFT’s no. 9 left tackle of 2012; he would receive monster attention if he were to hit the open market.

3. Running Back: Maurice Jones-Drew (8th): As stated in the intro, Jones-Drew was limited to just six games in 2012 but still “made” the most of it. He led the team in rushing with just 414 yards on the ground, explaining why the team finished dead last in total rushing yards gained. When healthy (which will forever be a question mark given his size), he’s one of the few game-changing running backs. His abilities have been showcased since gaining the starting position in 2009; he led the league in rushing two years ago when he gained over 1,600 yards. If the team wants to become competitive in 2013, they’ll have to establish Jones-Drew as a threat early and often.

4. Tight End: Marcedes Lewis (8th): Lewis is known for being one of the more athletic tight ends in the league, but he has only one great season to show for his ability. He finished this past season with 540 receiving yards & 4 TDs, his second best performances of his career. His agent needs to be congratulated on scoring the former Bruin a huge contract as his production fails to match his $7 million a year deal. However, the new regime feels that he was underused under former head coach Mike Mularkey, or maybe his underperforming stats are an indication of playing with a bad passer. Like Blackmon, his stats significantly rose once Henne took over as starter; perhaps there’s hope that he can finally become one of the league’s elite at his position.

5. Linebackers: LOLB Russell Allen (5th), MLB Paul Posluszny (7th), ROLB Geno Hayes (6th): It’s dreadful to include these castoffs, but some group has to be the 5th best on this team. The leader of this group, Posluszny, was signed as a free agent after the 2011 lockout and got a huge contract (six years, $42 million). He set the franchise record for tackles this past year with 139. However, stats aren’t a great indication of his talent; Posluszny finished just 47th of 53 graded middle linebackers by PFT for this past season. Allen also put up nice stats (129 tackles), but he’s not a playmaker and failed to cause a turnover in 2012. Hayes is now a two-time castoff after failing to resign with Chicago; maybe new coach Gus Bradley can get similar results from this unit as he did in Seattle.

Draft: Finishing with one of the league’s worst records certainly has it’s rewards; the Jaguars will pick 2nd overall in the 2013 draft. They reportedly have narrowed their selection to two players, most likely Oregon’s DE/OLB Dion Jordan or BYU’s DE Ezekiel Ansah. Both would help their grave pass rush. If I were Caldwell, I’d select the safer prospect Jordan as he could become an immediate contributor and could replace Jason Babin as the team’s LEO pass rusher. The two could rotate, giving the defense a true pass rushing threat. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade down to acquire more picks, the team obviously has many needs. I wouldn’t be surprised if they shock the rest of the league and draft West Virginia’s quarterback Geno Smith. Though it would signal the probable end of Gabbert, they need to give up on their mistake and focus on the future instead of dwelling on past management’s errors. Overall, the team could use more help on their offensive line, secondary, defensive line and linebacking core. They’ll have to draft the best player available at every opportunity if they want to make their team competitive quickly; if not, you could see the franchise uproot from Florida and move to the sunny beaches of Los Angeles in the near future.

Quick Jump to the Rest of the NFL:

AFC:

• AFC East
• AFC North
• AFC South
• AFC West – Coming Soon

NFC

• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South
• NFC West – Coming Soon

Back to the NFL Bible

1. Atlanta: Head Coach Mike Smith (6th season), 2012 season: 13-3 (1st in division, loss in NFC Champpionship), GM Thomas Dimitroff

The Falcons enjoyed a bittersweet 2012 campaign. While they claimed the NFC’s top seed and secured home field advantage, they were not figured to be a strong Super Bowl contender. While they didn’t play on the final Sunday, head coach Mike Smith finally secured a playoff victory, even if they barely hung on to beat Seattle in the 2nd round. They squandered a big lead to San Francisco in the NFC Championship game, but they should remain relevant in 2013 despite having some massive holes in their team. Look for the front office to target pass rushers and offensive lineman in free agency and the draft. General manager Thomas Dimitroff is always a wildcard and unafraid to make a surprising addition through his offseasons.

1. Quarterback – Matt Ryan (6th year): Let’s be honest, during the regular season, Matt Ryan is consistently among the elite QBs in the league as far as production. He’s also been to the playoffs four out of five seasons, and has finally captured that elusive 1st playoff win against Seattle. He should continue to grow with Roddy White and Julio Jones despite the probable loss of Tony Gonzalez. Look for the organization to negotiate an extension with Ryan in the next few months; they want to lock him up before he outplays their current offer. He should command $20+ million a year.

2. Receivers – WRs Julio Jones (3rd) & Roddy White (9th), TE Tony Gonzalez (17th): White, the whyly veteran and Jones, the young gun, are the tandem of the south. Jones and White are in the discussion for the best receiver tandem in the league. Arguably the strength of this Falcons’ offense, I give the slight nod to the quarterback, because face it, QBs are the key for the ignition in the modern NFL. Both have been highly productive with Jones making the Pro Bowl and White playing at that level. When I original wrote this team analysis, Gonzalez was still considered retired. Though things have changed, and Gonzalez will play in 2013, he had an impressive 16th season in the league and should continue to be one of the best overall tight ends in the game. His veteran leadership will not be taken for granted in Atlanta, he still provides Ryan with an ultimate safety valve.

3. Offensive Line – LT Sam Baker* (6th), LG Justin Blalock (7th), C Todd McClure (15th), RG Peter Konz (2nd): The strength of this unit lies in the interior of the unit, stretching to the right side. Baker, the inconsistent former 1st round pick, is a free agent is not a sure bet to return to Atlanta in 2013. For the most part, this unit is homegrown and now monetarily invested in given the contracts to Blalock and last year’s 2nd round selection of Konz last year. They’ve helped carve holes for Michael Turner in recent years, but their play has deteriorated since as a whole since the loss of Harvey Dahl. I was highly surprised when the Falcons released right tackle Tyson Clabo earlier this offseason, but Dimitroff must be planning to extend Ryan.

4. Pass Defense – CB Asante Samuel (11th), SS William Moore (5th), FS Thomas DeCould (6th): While this unit ranked 23rd in opposing pass yards, I put a lot of blame on the defensive line for not getting consistent pressure. The team lost former starters Dunta Robinson & Brent Grimes this offseason and are expected to find a young replacement through the draft. Fortunately, both of their young safeties are locked up long term (both were given five year contracts this offseason). Look for that tandem to grow as they become the face of this Falcons defense.

5. Linebackers – SLB Stephen Nichols (7th), MLB Akeem Dent (3rd), WLB Sean Witherspoon (4th): The inclusion of their linebacking unit says more about the problems with the team at other important positions. While they’ve had a decent pass rush behind John Abraham (since released) and the emergence of Kroy Biermann, they haven’t gotten much else from the rest of their defense in getting after quarterbacks. These three players are young and continue to improve, so I doubt they look in this direction once the offseason officially begins.

Draft: Look for the Falcons to be aggressive on draft day addressing their defense. They have sufficient holes in their pass rush. Though they released long time starter John Abraham, they’ve already added Osi Umenyiora this offseason. However, they should still spend a high draft pick on a prospect. I expect them to find a replacement for running back Michael Turner, who appeared to be on his last legs as he rumbled to a less-than impressive 2012 campaign. In my latest mock draft, I have them selecting Damontre Moore to become their young pass rusher, while selecting a cornerback in the 2nd. Finally, I have them taking Penn State’s Jordan Hill to add to their defensive tackle rotation.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Head Coach Greg Schiano (2nd year), 2012: 7-9 (4th in division), GM Mark Dominik

It was a tale of two seasons for the Buccaneers as though they won five out of six contests during the midseason, they reversed that mark to close the season out of playoff contention. Offensively, the unit finished near elite with their rush attack and maintained an above-average attack through the air behind quarterback Josh Freeman. Rookie sensation Doug Martin finished 5th in the league in rushing with over 1,4500 yards on the ground. While their defense ranked 1st against the run, it was merely a mirage as their pass defense was historically bad. The unit finished dead last by allowing 297.4 yards a game to opposing quarterbacks, much a due to to a young, porous secondary.  For a second straight offseason general manager  Mark Dominik dipped into the team’s spacious cap room to acquire another top of the line player, in this case free safety Dashon Goldson formerly of the San Francisco 49ers. Though one player can’t solve a team’s coverage problems, it’s a start. If the rumored trade for the Jets’ Darrelle Revis actually comes through, we can see a team make a strong playoff push. Things are definitely looking up in Tampa Bay, perhaps the NFC South will again fail to see a repeat divisional champion if things go the Bucs way in 2013.

1. Running Back: Doug Martin (2nd): Martin was somewhat a surprise 1st round pick, but he proved critics wrong with his historic rookie season. Not only did he cross 1,900 total yards in his 1st year, but he was also a one man wrecking crew against the Oakland Raiders when he posted 251 rushing yards and 4 TDs in a 42-32 victory. I’m intrigued to see what Martin can do behind a healthy line as the team missed both guards for most of the season. The team’s identity moving forward will be the rush attack, head coach Greg Schiano may end up running Martin into the ground if he continues his success.

2. Wide Receivers: Vincent Jackson (9th) & Mike Williams (4th): Dominik finally found a consistent weapon for Freeman when he signed Jackson to a mammoth five year, $55 million deal last offseason at the start of free agency. It paid off. Jackson finished with a spectacular line of 72 receptions, 1,384 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns. Jackson also alleviated pressure off of Williams, who had a productive rookie campaign in 2010 but slipped once teams focused on him in 2011. Williams rebounded nicely with an impressive line of 72, 996, and 9. Both of these receivers are physical but can still stretch the field due to top notch athleticism, Freeman should be satisfied with his weapons in 2013 regardless if they pick up a tight end in the draft or not. There are even rumblings that the team could draft West Virginia’s Tavon Austin to be their new slot receiver.

3. Safeties: FS Dashon Goldson (7th) & SS Mark Barron (2nd): The Goldson signing made a lot of sense, but it came at an above market price in comparison to other free agents this offseason. Still, Goldson produced for a San Francisco team that eventually lost in the Super Bowl, but it’s unfair to compare them to his new defense. He’ll be asked to lead this group and greatly increase their coverage. Barron was a surprise selection by the team in 2012 draft, but Barron was a good fit for the top 10. He enjoyed a decent rookie campaign, but he’ll need to force more turnovers: he had just two in 2012.

4. Offensive Line: LT Donald Penn (9th), LG Carl Nicks (6th) & RG Davin Joseph (8th): Penn isn’t the sexiest left tackle in the league, but he’s dependable. However, they have two of the best run blocking guards in all of football. Nicks is perhaps the best overall at his position, meanwhile Joseph has been solid since being drafted in the 1st. Like Jackson, he too was given a huge contract last season, but unlike the wideout, he was unable to produce due to injuries. In fact, both of these players failed to play a single down together in 2012 as Joseph was lost for the year in pre-season due to a severe injury. However, in 2013 if everyone remains healthy, Martin could challenged for 1,700+ yards on the ground. Fantasy owners watch out.

5. Linebackers: SLB Jonathan Casillas (5th), MLB Mason Foster (3rd), WLB Lavonte David (2nd): The organization had previously thought about moving Foster to the strongside, but that seems to be pushed to the back burner as the team signed Casillas to play that position. Though Casillas signed a one year deal, he was the Saints’ best linebacker in 2012. David had a strong rookie season as he led the team in tackles with 139 (112 solo). Though it’s not a certainty that Casillas sticks around for more than a year, the Bucs have a solid foundation in Foster & David. Moving forward, these guys will be the new Hardy Nickerson & Derrick Brooks for Tampa.

Draft: Based off their weaknesses, they’ll target corner & a pass rusher early. A lot will depend on if they trade for Revis, but if they don’t, expect them to target a cornerback earlier. It’s not guaranteed that top corner, Eric Wright, will be brought back in 2012 and is meeting with team officials to lower his salary. Xavier Rhodes should be available at the 13th pick, but there have also been rumors of them trading up to nab BYU’s Ezekial Ansah. Dominik doesn’t have to hit on all his draft picks, but he needs to continue to build a strong core of players on both sides of the ball. Finding a new starting right tackle could also be an option, perhaps as early as the 2nd round. Florida State’s Menelik Watson’s could make a lot of sense.

3. Carolina Panthers: Head Coach Ron Rivera (3rd season), 2012: 7-9 (2nd in division), GM Dave Gettleman

Well, at least the Panthers improved in year two of head coach Ron Rivera’s tenure in the NFC South. Fueled by a four game winning streak to close the season out, the Panthers looked respectable and competitive in victories over the Falcons & Redskins and through close losses to Bears & Seahawks (both within 4 points). The Panthers even swept their division rival Saints behind big games from quarterback Cam Newton. Newton, the 2011 Rookie of the Year, made big strides this past season despite showing little statistical improvement. Newton struggled early in the season, often showing his frustration on the sidelines or after the games in interview. However, his resurgence aligned with the Panthers’ second half success. As a whole, their run game is impressive and is only rivaled by the Redskins due to their options on ball carriers. Defensively, the team ranked middle of the pack against both the run & pass, quite a feat considering the middle of their defensive line leaked like a sieve and they had an under performing secondary. Unfortunately, they’ve been strapped against their cap and have been unable to add anyone of true value this offseason. If they want to make a playoff run in 2013, they’ll have to have a phenomenal draft. While I’m not necessarily betting against new general manager Dave Gettleman and his 1st draft, but 2014 may seem like a more likely option.

1. Defensive Ends: Charles Johnson (7th) & Greg Hardy (4th) – While former GM Marty Hurney unexpectedly opened up the team’s pocket books to retain Johnson (six years, $72 million). However, that investment paid off as Johnson reached double digit sacks in 2012 with 12.5, often commanding double teams that opened up Hardy to rush opposing quarterbacks. Hardy, formerly a big draft prospect (only to slide during the draft process), finally reached his potential this past year as he finished the year with 11 sacks of his own. These two hide the team’s deficiency at the middle of their defensive line.

2. Quarterback: Newton (3rd): I’ll admit that I was highly skeptical of Newton’s skills upon entering the league, in fact I sincerely doubted his abilities to be the 1st overall pick as I thought he didn’t have the polish to lead a team back to the playoffs. While he hasn’t led them back to the postseason, he has given the franchise hope as one of the league’s most exciting, young quarterbacks. While his total touchdown numbers dropped in his sophomore season, he took credit for the team’s failures; the sign of a true leader. He also cut back on his mistakes, totaling five fewer interceptions.

3. Rush Attack: Newton, RBs Jonathan Stewart (6th), FB Mike Tolbert (6th): The team finished 9th in the league in rushing, and that’s even with a down year from both Williams and Stewart. The latter was limited to just six starts as he was injured throughout 2012; but he’s expected to receive the lion’s share of carries if the team released DeAngelo Williams. Tolbert was able to vulture 7 TDs in 2012, annoying fantasy owners everywhere for their reluctance to start a fullback. This team should continue to pursue the run in 2012, so fantasy owners take note, it’s the Panthers’ bread and butter.

4. Offensive Line (particularly run blocking): LT Jordan Gross (11th), LG Amini Silatolu (2nd), Ryan Kalil (7th): The left side of their line is by far their strongest, but a season ending injury (that occurred early in 2012) ruined their ability to block. The team finished a paltry 27th in pass blocking, while not faring much better as run blockers at 23rd. However, Kalil had previously attended three straight Pro Bowls and should be back to 100% by the start of this season. Gross has been a rock since being drafted in the 1st round of 2003, and will probably have his jersey retired by the organization upon his retirement. Silatolu didn’t have an overly impressive rookie season, but he has a lot of promise and showed his potential as a former 2nd round pick

5. Linebackers: SLB Thomas Davis (9th), MLB Luke Kuechly (2nd), Jon Beason (7th): Kuechly is the standout of this group as he’s the only one that’s been relatively healthy recently. Davis played more than 7 games for the first time since 2008, while Beason logged just four starts in 2012. However, when healthy, this group has the potential to be one of the best in the entire league. While Kuechly may not be overly impressive athletically, he has a 6th sense at where the ball’s going and has great tracking ability. If they’re able to upgrade their defensive tackles, look for this group to make more plays at the line of scrimmage instead of 5 yards past it.

Draft: Gettleman can go in a few directions with this draft, but as previously stated, he’ll have to get impact players because he has little cap room available. I would think they’re looking to upgrade their defensive tackle position, and luckily they’ll have a premium prospect available to them if either Star Lotulelei, Shariff Floyd, or Sheldon Richardson falls to the 14th pick. He could also trade up to get one of those guys if he feels like they won’t be available at their pick. They could also go after a cornerback as the team released longtime panther Chris Gamble before free agency and have no replacement on the roster. The free safety position was a disaster in 2012, so perhaps they target a future starter in the draft’s second day. With their later round picks, it’ll be important to draft another developmental wide receiver for Newton to play with. A prospect on their offensive line wouldn’t hurt as well.

4. New Orleans Saints: Head Coach Sean Payton (8th season), 2012: 7-9 (3rd in division), GM Mickey Loomis

Wow, how the mighty have fallen. The downfall began at the start of the 2012 offseason when the Spygate scandal broke the sports media world, and things never quite looked up from there. The league suspended head coach Sean Payton (along with general manager Mickey Loomis), but offense was the least of their problems in 2012. The Saints scored 28 or more points in all of their victories, but their defense allowed more than 23 points in each of their 9 losses. The Saints were able to put up huge yardage through the air as the team & Drew Brees ranked first in passing yards per game, but their defense ranked dead last by allowing over 440 yards a game to opposing teams. Payton & Loomis have already axed defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and replaced him with former Cowboys’ playcaller Rob Ryan and his 3-4 defensive alignment. Defensively, I expect this unit to continue to struggle as they transform themselves from being an old, slow traditional 4-3 defense to being a faster, younger 3-4. Opportunities will be limited at getting after opposing quarterbacks because of the lack of talent at their outside linebackers, but they have some solid prospects in this unit including defensive end Cameron Jordan. I don’t doubt this team can contend for the NFC South title as they still have one of the elite offenses in the game, but their defense will prove to be too huge of a liability.

1. Quarterback: Drew Brees (13th): He’s the engine that turns this offense, he has the key to the ignition as the team led the league in passing with 312 yards a game in 2012. Since Brees joined the Saints in 2006, the team has averaged almost 10 wins and have only had two years under .500 (one was 2012). Brees set the single season passing yard record in 2011, but he also became the 1st player in league history to pass for 5,000 yards in consecutive seasons. Maybe it’s the playcalling, maybe it’s his weapons, but this offense wouldn’t be as successful if anyone else lined up behind center. His pinpoint accuracy is second to none in the league, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. We’ll see how far Brees can take him in 2013, but he’ll likely have little help from his defense.

2. Receivers: WRs Marques Colston (8th) & Lance Moore (8th), TE Jimmy Graham (4th): All three of these were homegrown talents, who were drafted (Colston, Graham) or stolen (Moore, after Cleveland cut him) by Loomis. Now, all three are indispensable to Payton, Brees, and the offense. The 6’4 Colston has surpassed 1,000 in all but one season as a pro, historically being Brees’ main option in their spread offense. Moore has been Brees’ slot receiver the last few years; expect his targets to go up in 2013 as Brees has fewer options to pass to. However, Graham is the the real jewel in the Saints’ offense as he creates mismatches for defenses every time he steps on the field. Primarily operating out of the slot, the 6-7 former college basketball player had a down year in 2012… and still caught 85 receptions for almost 1,000 yards and 9 TDs. He deserves a big raise, and Loomis should hand him an extension before next offseason.

3. Offensive Line: LG Ben Grubbs (7th), C Brian De La Puente (4th), RG Jahri Evans (8th), RT Zach Strief (8th): The loss of former left tackle Jerrod Bushrod will hurt, but Loomis has assembled a top-10 offensive line. Even then, Bushrod was arguably their worst performer in 2012, who finished with just a +1.5 ranking from Pro Football Focus. The strength of the line lies in the middle as De La Puente & Evans are among the elite at their positions. Analysts expected the unit to struggle after the team failed to resign Carl Nicks in the 2012 offseason, but Grubbs has proven to be an adequate replacement as their offense has yet to skip a beat. This group should remain intact for the next few years, buying Drew Brees important seasons as he gets up there in age. They will need to replace Bushrod this offseason, so expect them to draft a left tackle high this season or sign a veteran like Bryant McKinnie or Jared Gaither to protect their quarterback’s blind side.

4. Running Backs: Pierre Thomas (7), Darren Sproles (9), Mark Ingram (3): The bulk of the Saints’ yardage comes through the air, as evidence by the drastic difference in league-wide ranking (1st vs. 25th). However, the Saints run is still effective as three different backs made an impact for this offense in 2012. Ingram, who’s somewhat of a disappointment since his high draft pick in 2011, gained over 600 yards on almost a 4.0 yards per carry average. While it’s nothing to write home about, I’m not ready to give up on the former Heisman winner and instead believe that he could eventually become a great complementary piece for these other backs. Sproles made his impact in receiving as he caught 75 passes (including 7 touchdowns), totaling over 900 total yards. Thomas is the unheralded, complete back of this unit as he gained over 450 rushing yards and added an additional 370 yards receiving. This group is definitely a committee, but they seem to have all the necessary parts to be an effective offense.

5. Defensive Line: DEs Cameron Jordan (3rd) & Will Smith (10th), NT Brodrick Bunkley (8th): I’ve already talked about all of their offensive pieces, so one defensive unit had to make the list… and it’s a stretch. The only one who has experience in a 3-4 is Bunkley, and he only played a single season under this scheme while a Denver Bronco in 2011. Jordan was a tweener coming out of college, and actually played in this 3-4 alignment while at Cal under defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast. His sack total from 2012 (8 sacks) should dip, but he should remain a threat to get after opposing quarterbacks. Smith is squarely on the roster bubble, and could find himself out of a job if Ryan feels like he’s a poor fit for the scheme. The inclusion of this unit speaks volumes of the quality in both their linebackers & secondary… despite heavy additions at cornerback, I still can’t see the Saints fielding a competitive secondary in 2013.

Draft: The Saints will be handicapped on the draft’s second day as they lost their 2nd round pick as a result of BountyGate, so a trade down in the 1st to acquire more picks is a potential scenario. Quite frankly, this defense is in horrendous shape and Loomis should try to restock the cupboards for Ryan if he wants to field a competitive unit in 2013. Besides the obvious defensive needs (defensive end, nose tackle, outside linebacker, cornerback, safety), the team could draft a left tackle relatively high. In fact, in my latest mock draft, I have them selecting Florida State’s Menelik Watson, who’s a highly athletic but raw tackle. He’d be a great fit but could use a little more seasoning before contributing as a starter. If they didn’t have as many defensive needs, I could really see that as a reality, but to be honest they can’t afford not to draft defense. Maybe Loomis should take a hint from Green Bay or New England, who spent the majority of their draft picks on defense (not that it did much, those teams still fielded horrendously bad defenses in 2012).

Quick Jump to the Rest of the NFL:

AFC:

• AFC East
• AFC North
• AFC South
• AFC West – Coming Soon

NFC

• NFC East
• NFC North
• NFC South
• NFC West – Coming Soon

Back to the NFL Bible

In the 1st part of this series, I examine two defensive end prospects that have tantalizing athletic ability. Both of these players are foreigners who have were guided to college football as a way to continue their athletic careers after separate stumbling blocks. Both of these players are considered 1st round prospects, but both could ultimately become busts due to their inexperience.

Ezekiel Ansah, BYU -6’5, 271 lbs, Arm Length: 35⅛ inches, Hand Size: 10¼ inches

• Career Stats: 31 games played – 72 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks
• Combine Results: 40 Yard Dash: 4.63   Bench: 21 repetitions
• College Highlights

Hailing from Ghana, Ansah dreamed of joining the BYU basketball team upon enrolling in the university in 2008. Though he failed to make the team in either his freshman or sophomore season, he continue his athletic career and joined their track team as a sprinter. He soon left that program and joined the football team under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Though Zeke contributed little as a sophomore or junior, his athleticism was constantly on display during practice and many whispered about his potential once he were to understand the game. Zeke added bulk to his skinny frame and eventually emerged as a special teams player, contributing a modest 10 tackles through his first 18 games as a Cougar.

Before his Senior year, Ansah primarily focused on playing defensive end and outside linebacker in order to focus on improving his skill set, with the hope of eventually making a professional team. Showing his versatility in his final collegiate season, Ansah played defensive end, outside linebacker, and occasional nose tackle, Ansah produced a strong stat line: 62 tackles, 13 tackles for a loss, 4.5 sacks, 9 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, and 1 interception.

Athletically, there is very little Ansah can’t do. He’s proven his track speed by running a blazing 4.63 40-yard dash and demonstrated adequate strength by reaching 21 reps on the bench press. Due to his limited experience, he can be molded into a better football player with the introduction of proper technique. He also can be an interest to teams that play either in a 4-3 or 3-4 alignment as either a defensive end or an outside linebacker. Through his senior game tape, he demonstrated a strong ability to stop opposing ball carriers and even jolt them backwards, often negating a positive play by offenses. He demonstrated a strong ability to adapt and learn on the fly; there shouldn’t be questions surrounding his ability to improve as a football player.

However, there are various concerns surrounding his ability. Despite having top notch athleticism, he’s not the most aggressive tackler and doesn’t blow up plays as often as you would hope. He also showed poor stamina, which is a big concern considering he’ll be playing against the best competition and teams will be drafting him to play all three downs as a top-10 pick. He’s a poor run defender and could become a problem if he doesn’t penetrate the line on run plays as he needs to disrupt offensive lines to be effective.

Ansah, like it or not, will end up being a top 10 pick, even as high as 2nd overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. His upside is as high as any player in this draft, but I’m more concerned with his weakness than impressed by his strengths. Though athleticism is needed in the NFL, this isn’t the NBA; you have to have great technique to become a force. In my opinion, he’d be a great late 1st round pick due to his high upside, but I ultimately believed he’ll be over drafted and forced to play early and often. The most common comparison is to current New York Giant Jason Pierre-Paul, who was also new to football as a 1st round pick in 2010. However, for every Pierre-Paul, there’s countless highly athletic defensive ends that turn out to be busts. I’m not saying he can’t become a future All-Pro, but for where he’s being projected, he brings too much risk for my tastes.

courtesy of nfl.si.com

Margus Hunt, SMU -6’8, 277 lbs, Arm Length: 33¾ inches, Hand Size: 10 inches

• Career Stats: 53 games played, 112 tackles, 28.5 tackles for a loss, 15.5 sacks, 14 career blocked kicks
• Combine Results: 40 yard dash: 4.60   Bench: 38 repetitions 
• College Highlights

Hunt originally came to United States to further his track career, which included two gold medals at the 2006 World Junior Champions. After taking first in both the shot put & discus, Hunt enrolled at Southern Methodist, a school which had recently lost their track program due to budget cuts. Unable to continue his training, Hunt turned his attention to the gridiron as he tried out for the Mustangs’ football team despite lacking any experience or training in the American sport.

Originally Hunt played on special teams, where as a Freshman, he blocked seven kicks (one short of the NCAA single season record). Hunt progressed as a sophomore and started all 13 games and recorded 6.5 tackles for a loss, 3 sacks, and 3 more blocked punts. Though he started just two games as a Junior, he obliterated the strong Pittsburgh offensive line in the BBVA Compass Bowl. Hunt added to his legacy as a Senior when he earned 1st team Conference-USA as he produced 8 more sacks and ultimately fell two short of the NCAA record for most career blocked kicks.

As a prospect, Hunt is highly intriguing due to his freak athleticism. At the combine this past February, he recorded 38 reps on the bench and was the fastest defensive end with a 4.6 40-yard dash. While everyone talks about the insane natural ability of Ansah, Hunt ran faster and recorded 17 more reps than the probably top-10 pick. His ability to block kicks shows strong hand-eye coordination, and he could become a huge benefactor for any special teams unit. Outside of his special teams play, he showed great closing speed when sacking quarterbacks as well as great ability to properly use his long arms to keep blockers at bay. He could develop into a strong run defender if he adds more size. He can also line up as a 3-tech defensive end in a 3-4 allignment, but has the motor to play as an end in a 4-3 scheme as well.

While his athleticism is eye popping, there are a lot of flaws in his game that will need to be fixed in order for him to become an effective defensive player. His inexperience is obvious when watching film; he’s prone to losing leverage due to his height and is prone to bending at his hips. As a former track athlete, he also displays poor ability to change directions and was easily evadable by the Conference USA quarterbacks– not a good sign when he’s playing against better talent in the NFL. He’s also an arm tackler; good running backs with strong stiff arms should be able to avoid him on the outside. He’s also older than most of the prospects in this draft, he only started playing at age 21 and is now midway through his twenties.

Overall, Hunt could be selected anywhere from the late 1st round to the early 3rd. People might compare him to the Texan’s JJ Watt, but that’s unfair because Watt displays great technique and has experience playing both sides of the ball. His overall football IQ will have to develop, but that only comes with experience and time. It’s easy to fall in love with his workout numbers, but his game tape left a lot to be desired. For him to have a successful career, he’ll have to be picked by a team that has patience and a strong defensive line coach in order to further his technique. I personally see him excelling in a 3-4 defensive scheme, but no matter what, he should be a strong contributor on special teams due to his long arms and strong upper body.

back to the bible

Home to the new Super Bowl Champions, the Ravens now sit atop the throne of the NFL. Three different squads from the North have gone to the playoffs in the last two seasons, while Cleveland has remain near the bottom of the league. Behind a veteran (but severely slowing) defense and the playmaking ability of Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh will remain in contention for the foreseeable future despite the threat of huge losses this offseason. The Bengals are the upstart of the conference as they’ve surprised most with back to back playoff appearances on the shoulders of Andy Dalton. The team is collectively young, but they have one of the best pass rushes in the entire league. Cleveland recently underwent a significant change in their front office and look to rebuild in a new model.

1. Baltimore Ravens: Head Coach: John Harbaugh (6th), 2012 season: 10-6 (1st in division, won Super Bowl XLVII), GM Ozzie Newsome

In football, it’s all about results and you can’t argue with a team winning it’s 2nd Lombari trophy. However, before getting into the players that will affect their offseason, the growth and acceleration QB Joe Flacco can’t be denied. Their offense outplayed their defense in 2012 despite the firing of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron during the season. I’m not sure if their defense during the regular season will improve, they’re already lost 7 key contributors to their Super Bowl winning group. Captain and future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis missed most of the season last year, but now leaves the league after a successful postseason. The team will have to replace both inside linebackers as they failed to re-signed Dannell Ellerbe. A returning Terrell Suggs (along with recent signee Elvis Dumervil) should give their pass rush a boost. General Manager Ozzie Newsome failed to resign safety Ed Reed and subsequently released fellow starting safety Bernard Pollard. Look for Baltimore to target defense early and often in April’s draft as they have to replace half of last year’s unit.

1. Quarterback – Joe Flacco (6th): The Super Bowl MVP recently was rewarded the league’s richest contract in history at six years/$120.6 million deal. He’s worth every penny. Flacco has started every game since his rookie year and has led the team to a playoff victory every season. He’s improve his yardage nearly every season and has maintained a great TD:INT ratio while balancing the offense. While it was expensive to lock him up long term, and though he doesn’t have elite statistics, Flacco is now the new Ravens’ cornerstone given the retirement of Lewis.

2. Outside Linebackers – Terrell Suggs (11th), Elvis Dumervil* (8th), Courtney Upshaw (2nd): The team is still anchored by it’s defense and their biggest defensive strength is their pass rush and overall play from their linebackers. Terrell Suggs won DPOY in 2011, and Dumervil could be an upgrade over the departed Paul Kruger on passing downs . Courtney Upshaw is still developing and is already a stout run defender, he figures to rotate out with Dumervil on third downs. Overall, this is a very skilled group and one that remains among the team’s elite despite some personnel turnover.

3. Defensive Line - NT Haloti Ngata (8th), DEs Arthur Jones (4th), Chris Canty* (9th), Marcus Spears* (9th), Pernell McPhee (3rd): The defense starts and ends with their defensive line. While other areas of their defense has lost key players, this is the sole unit to clearly improve this offseason. Ngata will move full time to nose tackle (he’s a massive upgrade over Terrence Cody), and Newsome found great steals in Canty & Spears. Jones and McPhee have big upsides given their athletic abilities. Overall, this could be the team’s most consistent unit in 2013.

4. Offensive Line – OT Michael Oher (5th), LG Kelechi Osemele (2nd), RG Marshal Yanda (7th): Though Yanda is the best of the bunch, the unit has played well together. However, they will lose two pieces this offseason as former starters center Matt Birk  (retirement) & left tackle Bryant McKinnie is expected to move on. Still, the team may have replacements in C Gino Gradkowski and RT Jah Reid. Oher could be tried again at left tackle, but he’s struggled there and is clearly suited to man the right side of their offensive line.

5. Running Back – Ray Rice (6th) & Bernard Pierce (2nd): Ray Rice is arguably the league’s top 3rd down back and has the ability to move the chains on all three downs. While his overall production slipped in 2012, he still contributed over 1,600 total yards and 10 TDs. Bernard Pierce showed that he’s capable of being a change of pace back, but probably isn’t ready for a full time role.

Draft: General manager Ozzie Newsome is one of the league’s best general managers, known for his ability to find franchise building prospects through the draft. This offseason could prove to be difficult as he’ll have to replace multiple, important decisions.It would greatly surprise and disturb me if Newsome fails to replace his key starters through April’s draft. He has 11 picks to work with, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him trade down to accumulate more. He has to address the inside linebacker positions and find a replacement for Ray Lewis. The loss of Reed may not sting as much as expected, but he has to replace both starting safeties. I expect him to target Kansas State’s Arthur Brown in the 1st, and then add the best remaining safety with a pick on the draft’s 2nd day.

2. Cincinnati: Head Coach Marvin Lewis (11th), 2012 season 10-6 (2nd in division, lost in AFC Wildcard), GM Paul Brown

The Bengals gutted through a difficult 2012 season and achieved a consecutive playoff berth for head coach Marvin Lewis. Quarterback Andy Dalton won’t mesmerize scouts with his arm strength or pinpoint accuracy, but he gets the job done when it counts. The Bengals have young building blocks at important positions, including Geno Atkins, who might be the best pass rushing defensive tackle in the league. AJ Green has been exciting and looks to be the next “it” receiver in the league, think a bigger Randy Moss. This team is still developing, and with a few more additions, could realistically challenge Baltimore for the division crown in 2013.

1. Pass Rush – DEs Michael Johnson (5th season) & Carlos Dunlap (4th), DT Geno Atkins (4th): Atkins and Johnson recently both recorded double digit sack campaigns, while Dunlap has shown ability to get after opposing quarterbacks and play above-average run defense. Johnson, who recorded 11.5 sacks, was brought back with the Franchise Tag and could look to build his resume for another run at free agency in 2014. Atkins should be handsomely rewarded with a contract extension, and he’s earned it as the best pass-rushing defensive tackle since Warren Sapp. Cincinnati may boast the best pass rushing defensive line in the entire league, and should only get better if more recent draft picks (DT’s Brandon Thompson & Devon Still) develop in the next few years.

2. Cornerback: Leon Hall (7th), Adam Jones (7th), Dre Kirkpatrick (2nd), Terrence Newman (11th) – They were a mix of stellar veteran play and youthful playmaking in 2012, but the Bengal’s secondary success was one of the most underrated storylines of the league. Jones, an impending free agent, finally displayed skills that once made him a top 10 draft pick. Hall was stable and consistent, while Kirkpatrick was a 2012 1st round pick that was seldom used but still maintains a load of potential. Newman started 15 games for the Bengals in 2012, but I would expect Kirkpatrick to take over.

3. Wide Receiver – AJ Green (3rd): Green was a former top high school prospect who excelled in college at Georgia. Drafted third overall in 2011, Green has taken the league by storm in a short period of time and was named an All-Pro in 2012. He has one of the highest ceilings out of all the young receivers in the league, a high compliment given the current depth in the NFL. While he may be one of the best receivers in the league, the team offers little depth after him. The unit also lacks a veteran as none of their players has played longer than three NFL seasons. Expect management to draft another prospect this April to pair with this specimen.

4. Run Blocking: LT Andrew Whitworth (8th), LG Clint Boling (3rd), C Kyle Cook (6th), RG Kevin Zeitler (2nd) - While the Bengals haven’t had a name brand running back in a while, they’ve always had a steady run offense, partly due to their offensive line. They have young pieces in this unit, but it would get a further boost if they retain RT Andre Smith, who’s still a free agent. Smith graded out as one of the top tackles in 2012, he’s just waiting for a fatter paycheck from the stingy Bengals. Whitworth, while not a household name, has quietly become a steady defense for quarterback Andy Dalton against opposing pass rush. Boling will have to beat out Travelle Wharton for the right guard position, but he’s more talented and the team likes Wharton as a reserve due to his versatility.

5. Quarterback: Andy Dalton (3rd) – Like I stated in my intro, Dalton isn’t the sexiest quarterback in the league, but he’s successfully guided his team to the playoffs in both of his years in Cincy. Dalton will continue to progress if they surround him with more talent. If they land another receiver in this year’s draft, his play will take off. He’s been efficient, and it’s reflective in his career stats: 60.2% completion, 7,000+ passing yards, and a solid 47:29 TD to INT ratio. He improved his quarterback rating a full seven points, grading out as an above average passer. He’s a good game manager, but he’ll have to cut back on the turnovers and make bigger plays in crucial situations. Still, the “Red Rocket” is a fighter and someone I’d want in a foxhole with me.

Draft: Owner Paul Brown is one of the last owner/general managers left in the NFL, but he does seem to have talented advisers around him. They’ve made great selections in the 1st round and mid rounds, but late round success has eluded him. In my recent mock, I have them selecting West Virginia’s Tavon Austin to play the slot; he’d be an excellent fit for Dalton. I expect them to look long at Alec Olgetree’s name if he’s still available at their selection; similar off the field problems haven’t strayed them from taking chances in the past. Linebacker and receiver are their two biggest needs, and I would expect them to target them in the first few rounds of the draft. If Andre Smith leaves through free agency, as they prefer Anthony Collins to be their swing, backup tackle.

3. Pittsburgh: Head Coach Mike Tomlin (7th), 2012: 8-8 (3rd in division), General Manager: Kevin Colbert

The City has seen better days as the Steelers. The team failed to qualify for the 2012 playoffs, ending a season that left many of their fans scratching their heads. Limited by their run deficiencies, they failed to produce a consistent offense as they were forced to rely on Ben Roethlisberger too often. Their defense has quickly shone it’s age as players’ play either slipped or was dramatically affected by injuries. Still, this franchise will always remain competitive given the identity they share with their coach Mike Tomlin, who preaches toughness. While talented, they were unable to get their usual performances from their less heralded players, as backups were unable to replace injured starters. If Pittsburgh makes some alterations to their 2013 team, they have a chance at squeezing into the playoffs, even in their highly competitive division.

1. Quarterback – Ben Roethlisberger (10th season): While Big Ben may not boast an elite individual resume, he has been the starting quarterback on two Super Bowl winning teams in just nine years. His stats have stabilized and he’s the leader of this Pittsburgh offense, it looks as though he’s hit his ceiling. Roethlisberger is capable of leading this franchise to at least another Super Bowl appearance, but I would think Pittsburgh’s defense will be the main reason why. He’s had his fair share of injuries (both on and off the field), but he’s one of the best playmaking quarterbacks in the entire league as their offense can never truly be counted out. He manages the game well and is good enough to keep games close even if the offense isn’t clicking.

2. Linebackers – OLB LaMarr Woodley (7th), ILB Larry Foote (12th), ILB Lawrence Timmons (7th), : This unit played well together in 2012, despite nagging injuries and age concerns.. Woodley also had a down year in 2012 as recorded just four sacks, but I expect him to improve his production to rise. Timmons is slowly becoming their most productive ‘backer. Foote was retained as a free agent, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team re-sign recent releasee ROLB James Harrison if his market dries. Overall this group is solid but not spectacular, they’re obviously a ton of talent but they need to be more consistent in 2013.

3. Wide Receivers – Antonio Brown (4th) & Emmanuel Sanders (4th): Brown is now the alpha dog of this unit as former Pro Bowl receiver Mike Wallace left for South Beach earlier this offseason. Fresh off a contract extension, Brown displayed his potential as he took over as the team’s number one receiver. Sanders flirted with New England by signing a one year offer with the New England Patriots, but he’ll be back in Pittsburgh in 2013 as general manager Kevin Colbert wisely matched the offer. The team will have to add another dynamic player in this draft as the team boasts old veterans (Plaxico Burress & Jerricho Cotchery) as depth.

4. Strong Safety - Troy Polamalu (11th): When healthy, Polamalu is one of the most feared, dynamic players in the league. Polamalu’s production fell as he was limited to just seven games in 2012; but even then he was unable to make an impact when he was on the field. Between 2010 & 2011, the former defensive player of the year combined for almost 160 tackles, 9 interceptions, 1 fumble and 2 sacks. He’s getting up there in age, but he can’t play forever.

5. Offensive Line - LT Mike Adams (2nd), C Maurkice Pouncey (4th) & RG David Decastro (2nd), RT Marcus Gilbert (3rd): These guys are absolute maulers, and while Decastro missed most of last year, he should become one of the run blocking guards in the game. Pouncey has already established himself as one of the best centers, his absence was noted during the Steelers’ Super Bowl loss. These guys should remain cornerstones for their offensive line, and hopefully LT Mike Adams develops into an above average starter for the team in 2013. Gilbert has also shown flashes in his limited playing time, but if both he and Adams develop, this unit can be powerful in the upcoming years.

Draft: The Steelers will have to add some youth to their defense, as their premier players are beginning to slow and they need more speed. Nose tackle Casey Hampton might be on his last legs, and while he played great in 2012, he is 36 years old and is still a free agent. Perhaps Georgia’s John Jenkins will be available at the Steelers’ selection; he’d be a great replacement for Hampton at NT. Besides the NT, they should address their receiver position as they’ll have to replace Wallace. Tight end Heath Miller also suffered a serious knee injury at the end of the 2012 year, he’s not expected to play at his elite level next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they took Notre Dame’s Tyler Eifert if he’s still available at their pick. He would add a different dimension to the offense even in the event of a healthy Miller.

4. Cleveland: Head Coach Rob Chudzinski (1st year), 2012 season: 5-11 (4th in division), General Manager: Mike Lombardi

Well, Cleveland is officially rebuilding, yet again. I had high hopes for the franchise when they hired Mike Holmgren to be their their President in 2010. However, when Jimmy Haslam bought the team, Holmgren was shown the door along with his choice for head coach, Pat Shurmur. Former offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski returns as head coach, but he’ll have to massively retool his offensive personnel to properly implement his offense. He’ll have to make a decision between incumbent starting quarterback Brandon Weeden and recent addition Jason Campbell. However, the team does have several young playmakers on both sides of the ball, so there is hope in the future for Cleveland fans. They’ll have to build a more stable defense, they’re still several years away from competing in the AFC North.

1. Offensive Line – LT Joe Thomas (7th season), C Alex Mack (5th), RT Mitchell Schwartz (2nd): Cleveland finished 5th overall in Pro Football Focus’ ranking for the unit, highly impressive for a team that’s still in full development. Though their guards are below average blockers, the Browns have a solid foundation with bookend tackles and a near-elite center in Mack. Thomas is arguably the league’s premier left tackle in the league and should remain in Cleveland for the foreseeable future due to his large contract extension. Mack and Schwartz, both former Cal Bears, have played well and have exceeded expectations since their arrival in Ohio.

2. Run Defense – DTs Phil Taylor (3rd), Ahtyba Rubin (6th), Desmond Bryant* (5th): While their pass defense will remain a question mark (even with the Paul Kruger signing), their run defense is unquestionably the strength of this defense. Transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive scheme will greatly benefit their defensive tackles as neither Taylor nor Rubin are great pass rushers. Bryant, the new $34 million man, will team with Rubin to man the ends of their defensive line with Taylor acting as the nose tackle. This unit has the potential and now versatility and experience to give opposing offenses various, unique looks.

3. Linebackers – OLBs Paul Kruger* (5th), Jabaal Sheard (3rd), Quentin Groves* (6th), ILB D’Qwell Jackson (8th): The outside backers are definitely superior to the inside linebackers in this unit, but it would be unfair to not include the defense’s leader for this ranking system. Jackson has definitely slowed down but is still a reliable tackler, and comes experience in the 3-4 given his previous time in Cleveland playing for Romeo Crennel. Kruger recently left the Ravens for a $40 million deal and comes with high expectations– ones I doubt he’ll be able to match. Sheard is hoping for a smooth transition from being a defensive end, but he was once scouted as an outside linebacker by potential 3-4 teams, so I have faith he can play in this scheme.

4. Running Back – Trent Richardson (2nd): When you spend a top 5 pick on a runningback, you better hope he pans out. While Richardson didn’t amaze fans with his ability in 2012, he deserves a break given he played with multiple injuries including broken ribs and a high ankle sprain. However, the new coaching staff has faith in the former Alabama back, they plan to “run the shoes off me” as the back told the press. If he stays healthy, fantasy owners beware.

5. Cornerback – Joe Haden (4th): Haden is one of the more impressive individual players on this Cleveland roster. Entering his 4th year out of Florida, he’s the lone dependable starter in the Browns’ secondary and played at an All-Pro level in 2012. Expect management to give him a large extension next offseason before he can reach free agency.

Draft: It’ll be interesting to see how this new management handles the draft; they’ll have to fix a lot of the mistakes Mike Holmgren made while in charge. They have a solid foundation on offense with their line, and have a workhorse running back in Richardson. However, they may feel the need to draft a new quarterback despite taking Brandon Weeden in the 1st round last year. New VP of Player Personnel Mike Lombardi question Weeden’s ability when he was an analyst for the NFL Network, but appears to be willing to give the 29 year old a fair evaluation. Defensively, they need to add more players in their secondary and could use a strong upgrade at the right cornerback and free safety positions. They could also look to add a young inside linebacker. Remember, you can never have enough pass rushers, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them add more competition for Sheard.

*free agent acquisition

Previous Entries in the NFL Bible

• AFC East
• NFC East
• NFC North

1. Green Bay: Head Coach Mike McCarthy (8th), 2012 season: 11-5 (loss in NFC Divisional Game), GM Ted Thompson

The Packers started off slow and held just a 2-3 record at one point in the season, but eventually battled back and reeled off an impressive 11 game stretch where they lost just twice. While they were able to beat up on bad teams, all five of their regular season losses were to playoff bound teams. Although the loss in Seattle should have gone Green Bay’s way, their deficiencies were exploited against pass happy teams with strong defensive pass rushes. If they want to advance to another Super Bowl, they’ll have to beat either San Francisco or New York to make it count, both of those squads have the Packers’ number. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has built the most impressive resume of any quarterback in NFL History, and should look to add to his legacy with each passing year. Injuries played a tool on their defense as the limitations of Clay Matthews limited their pass rush abilities. Their secondary receded as both Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams had subpar 2012s. This team still has loads of talent and should be perennial Super Bowl contenders as long as they address their personnel holes.

1. Quarterback – Aaron Rodgers (9th season): Rodgers is arguably the best player in the league, if not the best among the most important position. His numbers are unparalleled and he could leave the game as one of the greatest passers of all time. No matter who he has available, it always seems like he finds the open man regardless of name recognition. Despite having an injured and underperforming offensive line, A-Rod continued to light up opposing defenses with almost 4,300 yards through the air and an incredible 39:8 TD to INT ratio. He needs to get rid of the ball quicker and discontinue some hopeless plays; he was sacked 51 times.

2. Outside Linebacker – Clay Matthews (5th): Matthews (when healthy) is an absolute terror on the field. His presence was missed when he was out for four games with a hamstring injury, as Green Bay lacked a consistent pass rush in his absence. Still, Matthews earned consideration for Defensive Player of the Year and amassed 13 sacks, including three more in the playoffs. Look for GM Ted Thompson to grant him with a long term extension, keeping him in Lambeau past 2013.

3. Wide Receivers – Jordy Nelson (5th), James Jones (7th), Randall Cobb (3rd): The Packers have arguably the deepest receiver core in the league, and that’s with the loss of Greg Jennings. It’s hard to rank who’s the best among Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and James Jones but all three combine to give Rodgers plenty of options on offense. This young group will continue to develop, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see general manager Ted Thompson add another prospect through this draft.

4. Cornerback – Tramon Williams (7th), Casey Hayward (2nd), Sam Shields (4th): Over the past few years, it seems as though this defense has had one standout in this positional group between Woodson, Williams, and now Hayward. Though prone to giving up tons of passing yards, they are playmakers and have elite ability to create turnovers. The Packers have already released Woodson this offseason, and a reunion seems unlikely as his play had severely declined even before his injury.

5. Safety – Morgan Burnett (4th): Burnett is the center fielder for Dom Capers defense, is a constant force and has great ability to diagnose plays pre-snap. Though his inclusion may be a stretch, inconsistency from their D Lineman (specifically NT BJ Raji) forces Burnett to make the Packers’ top 5. Look for Green Bay to continue to develop their strong safeties as both MD Jennings and Jerron McMillian both have raw potential.

Draft: Look for the Packers to follow their usual routine: wait for a prospect to fall, or trade back for more picks. Thompson has never been quiet about reaching for a player as he prefers for a talent to fall to him. The except was 2012 when he executed multiple trades, which ultimately payed off given the success of Hayward. Though he has been reluctant to address the running back position, this might be the year for Thompson to strike. The team was reportedly interested in Steven Jackson, but he signed with Atlanta for a reasonable $12 million over three seasons. Running back could be an option during the first two days as well.

2. Chicago Bears: Head Coach Marc Trestman (1st year), 2012 season: 10-6 (3rd in division) GM Phil Emery

Chicago continued their recent trend of starting hot but playing themselves out of playoff contention by week 17. This year, it cost former head coach Lovie Smith his job. His replacement, Marc Trestman, comes from the CFL where his explosive offense led the Montreal Alouettes to two Grey Cups, their equivalent of the Super Bowl. The Bears are loaded with talented, but as 2012 showed, they can’t withstand a major injury. Their defense was stellar this past year, with both the pass and rush ranking 8th overall in the league. People might point to the parting of longtime MLB Brian Urlacher and say that their defense will struggle as a result. I beg to differ, Urlacher was clearly over the hill and a huge liability in coverage. Offensively, they were able to run as evidenced by their 123 yards per game average. However, behind Jay Cutler and their horrendous offensive line, the team finished just 29th overall in the league in terms of passing. Trestman was brought in to rectify that. 2013 should be an interesting year if their offense finally supports their defense.

1. Defensive Line: DEs Julius Pepper (12th) & Corey Wootton (4th), DTs Henry Melton (5th) & Stephen Paea (3rd): Pepper, the perennial All-Pro, again led the team with 11.5 sacks while constantly facing double teams. He’s still valuable despite his hugenormous contract (three years left, $44.3 million left). Outside of their veteran star, the defense line is littered with young talent. Across from Peppers lies Wootton, who was productive by adding 7 sacks and playing strong run defense. At the tackles, they have nose tackle Paea and bull rusher Melton. Melton was retained this offseason using the franchise tag, but to earn a long term contract, he’ll have to show that he can improve on his 13 sacks over the past two years. It might prove difficult for general manager Phil Emery to retain all of them, especially if they keep Peppers. Remember, the franchise did use their 2012 1st round pick on another defensive end, Shea McClellin.

2. Secondary: CB Tim Jennings (8th) & Charles Tillman (11th), SS Major Wright (4th) FS Chris Conte (3rd): As stated in the Chicago intro, this unit finished 8th overall in the league in passing yardage given up to opposing offenses. The team also forced 24 interceptions, led by Jennings at 9 (who also led the league). He’s also on a team friendly deal which runs through next year at just $4.25 million. Tillman, one of the veterans on this defense, continues to play above average in pass coverage as well. He should continue to hold the starting position, but Emery should target a replacement for him sooner rather than later. Cornerbacks tend to fall off with little advance warning. The long term success of this unit will depend on their safeties. Both Wright and Conte are above average for their positions, but lack the necessary tools to become elite. Still, I’d much rather have a bunch of above average players than a few great and select slew of average.

3. Quarterback: Jay Cutler (8th): Cutler is one of the most polarizing figures in the NFL: while he has all the physical tools to become great, fans hate him because he doesn’t seem fully invested in the game or his team. Cutler played below league average in 2012; he amassed just 3,000 yards passing along with a subpar 19:14 TD to INT ratio. While this may have not been his worst statistical season, he still lead the Bears to 10 wins in 15 starts. In fact, he’s only lost 10 games over the last three seasons. He does enough to get the job done, he just hasn’t pushed the team further. Once again, hopefully Trestman will help.

4. Running Backs: Matt Forte (6th) & Matt Bush (6th): Between these two, the Bears can do it all on offense. Forte is the complete back; the one who can go between the tackles, take a draw on third and long, or grab a crucial reception for a 1st down. Since entering the league in 2008, he’s surpassed 1,400 total yards each year and has averaged 7 touchdowns a season. Bush, who signed last offseason, is more of a hard-nosed runner, a back who can pick up the difficult, must have yards on 3-2 or at the goalline.

5. Run Defense: the defensive line, WLB Lance Briggs (11th), DJ Williams (10th), James Anderson (8th): It’s a group effort, and so as much of the credit of their stellar run defense goes to their defensive line as their linebacking group. As mentioned, the loss of Urlacher hurts more on paper than it does on the field, but he was still an elite run defender. Luckily his replacement, Williams, is fully rested after playing just seven games in 2012 due to suspension. Though Williams is better in coverage, he’s still above average against the run. Anderson started 11 games for Carolina last year after Jon Beason was lost for the season. He’s around league average for his position; Emery should bring in competition for him either by a draft pick or another free agent.

Draft: Emery has the freedom to head in multiple different directions on draft day, especially with his 1st round pick. There is no single consensus on how the Bears will draft; they hadn’t given a strong indication they were going to draft another defensive end, and yet they took Boise State’s Shea McClellin in the 1st round of last year’s draft. They have a number of holes that they have yet to address in free agency, they could easily target a guard if either Alabama’s Chance Warmack or North Carolina’s Jonathan Cooper falls to 20th overall selection. If they bypass offensive line help, they could target a linebacker to either compete against Anderson, or to eventually replace either Briggs or Williams; booth are hitting the retirement age. They could also look to add youth to their cornerback unit as both of their starters are on the wrong side of 30. I expect the team to draft another wide receiver in the mid rooms with the hope that he can develop into a third option in the passing game;

3. Minnesota Vikings: Head Coach Leslie Frazier (4th season), 2012: 10-6 (2nd in division, loss in NFC Wildcard), GM Rick Spielman

The Vikings were definitely a team that surprised analysts in 2012; I don’t recall a single pundit expecting them to even finish .500. Few even stud ‘back Adrian Peterson to return to his former form, much less reclaim his title as the league’s best running back. However, behind the 2,097 rushing yards from AD, the Vikings managed to sneak into the playoffs following a week 17 victory over their rival, the Green Bay Packers. Though they had a disappointing ending to their season (a loss to the same Packers), 2012 can’t be viewed as nothing short of miraculous as Peterson became a medical marvel given his ultra-quick recovery from a torn ACL.

Though he’s far from a superstar, quarterback Christian Ponder enjoyed some improvement as well, though he still limited the team in the passing game due to his relatively weak arm and undesirable, less-than-pinpoint accuracy. Still, the team had a solid run defense that allowed them to keep them in almost every game. They only lost one game again an inferior opponent, which came in week 8 in a home 36-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While I don’t expect the Vikings to make the playoffs in 2013, they should remain competitive and challenge again for a wildcard spot. Despite additions to their receiving core, they’re still too one dimensional on offense.

1. Running Back: Adrian Peterson (7th): Historically, I can’t name a recovery that rivals Peterson’s in 2012. After tearing his ACL in week 16 of the 2011 season, it looked like Minnesota’s star player would hopefully return next year’s mid season but wouldn’t be 100% until 2013. If Peterson wasn’t 100%, he might break the 3,000 yard barrier. Even without his 2012 campaign, “Purple Jesus” favorably compares to some of the best running backs in history. He almost single handily propelled his team to the playoffs, winning MVP honors as the closest player to approach Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 single season rushing yards. The only concern, long term, would be his injury history as he’s suffered everything from broken collarbones to severe knee damage. Still, I’d put money on Peterson entrenching his name as the game’s all-time leading rusher by the time he retires. He just that damn good.

2. Offensive Line: LT Matt Kalil (2nd), LG Charlie Johnson (8th), C John Sullivan (6th), RT Phil Loadholt (5th): While a majority of the credit should be given to Peterson for his 2,000+ season, you can’t not give credit to the Minnesota offensive line for creating holes for the former Sooner. According to Pro Football Focus, this unit finished as the league’s 6th best run blocking group despite having one of the worst starting guards in the league, RG Brandon Fusco. With the exception of Johnson, this is a homegrown unit that is also steady as pass blockers. While Sullivan & Loadholt are great run blockers, Kalil could eventually become the league’s best left tackle. He’s already a strong pass blocker and I expect him to grow as a run blocker. I would be surprised to see general manager Rick Spielman to draft a guard to at least give Busco competition; he was horrible as the Vikings’ starting right guard. He graded out as a -11.8 according to PFF’s yearly 2012 point system, by far the worst on the team.

3. Pass Rush: DEs Jared Allen (10th), Brian Robison (7th), Everson Griffen (4th), UT Kevin Williams (11th): Allen was his usual dominant self in 2012; registering another 12 sacks to add to his career total of 117. He’s just a season removed from challenging the all time season mark when he recorded 22 in 2011. Robison was also highly productive in 2012 as he registered a career high of 8.5 and played solid defense against the run. Griffen was a big contributor as a 3rd down pass rush specialist; he also recorded a career high of 8 sacks despite playing limited downs. At tackle, Kevin Williams is still a dependable player against both the pass & rush, but he’s definitely slowing down as evidenced by his production. A career Viking, he’s far removed from the glory days of posting double digit sack totals. He should call it quits in the next year or two; Spielman should prepare by drafting his replacement in 2013.

4. Run Defense: Defensive Line, SLB Chad Greenway (7th) & WLB Eric Henderson (5th): The defense finished 2012 ranked 11th against the run by allowing just under 106 yards a game to opposing offenses. Greenway is their best run defender (and probably best overall defender), but their other linebackers are a bunch of over-performing no names. The team lost former starting middle linebacker Jasper Brinkely earlier this offseason, but they could slide Henderson to that spot and draft a replacement. Either way, this unit played surprisingly well against the run and should continue to sport similar results in 2013.

5. Receiving Options: WR Greg Jennings (8th) & TE Kyle Rudolph (3rd): A pretty pourous group, but these two are well above league average at their positions and deserve recognition. Spielman kicked off the offseason by trading disgruntled but supremely talented slot receiver Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks for draft picks. Harvin was the Viking’s jack of all trades player, contributing as a receiver, runner, and returner. To replace him, the team looked to free agency to find a new vertical threat.

Jennings signed with the Vikings after spending seven years with the Green Bay Packers, establishing himself as one of the best route runners in the league and winning a Super Bowl in 2011. He signed a somewhat ridiculous five year, $50 million contract to become the Viking’s best wide receiver and Ponder’s new best friend. Rudolph was an investment made at the same time management used a 1st round pick on Ponder. Believing that Rudolph could develop into a solid, all-around tight end, the team spent a 2nd round pick on him. While he hasn’t quite lived up to his draft spot, he did record 53 catches & 9 TDs in 2012, making him worthy of a mention.

Draft: Due to the Harvin trade, the Vikings have the luxury of two first round picks. Ultimately, I think they should split them on both sides of the ball as they have needs everywhere. Offensively, they could use another wide receiver to pair with Jennings & sophomore Jarius Wright. If a player like Cordarrelle Patterson or Keenan Allen were to be available at either 23 or 25, Spielman would think long and hard about passing on a invaluable weapon for Ponder. They could also upgrade their right guard, so if Cooper were to to fall in the late teens or early 20s, I could also imagine them trading up. Defensively, they should be in the market for a middle linebacker; Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o would be a good fit in this scheme. In my mock draft, I have them selecting North Carolina’s Sylvester Williams but I could also imagine them drafting another corner as they released former starter Antoine Winfield earlier this offseason.

4. Detroit Lions: Head Coach Jim Schwartz (5th season), 2012: 4-12 (4th in division), GM Martin Mayhew

The Lions overachieved in 2011; they shouldn’t have made the playoffs, they weren’t ready to play past week 17 and it showed in their wild card loss against the Saints. If they overachieved in 2011, they failed to produce in 2012 as they were limited to just four wins in 2012. Through eight games, the Jim Schwartz led squad stood at .500, but Detroit ended up dropping their final games to finish 5th worth in the league. They lost a number of close games in 2012, and they found it difficult to keep their cool (specially Suh). Though Matt Stafford and their offense improved their league rank as far as total output (jumped from 5th to 3rd), but their defense gave up the 27th most points. Their secondary was prone to giving up big plays although they were ranked average 223 yards to opposing passing offenses. The heart of their defense lies in their talented defensive tackle tandem. However, they weren’t able to replicate their 2011 sack production as their totals dipped from 41 to 34. Schwartz will have to bring the franchise back to contention or he could be looking for a new job in 2014.

1. Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson (7th): Johnson may be the most physically gifted receiver to ever play in the NFL, as showed when he broke the 18 year old record held by the greatest player at his position, Jerry Rice. Using his 6’5, 235 lb frame, Johnson has elite speed (4.34 40-yard) some of the best hands in the game. Last March, the Lions signed him to a monster eight year, $132 million extension, setting the benchmark for future contracts for guys like AJ Green, Julio Jones, and potentially Dez Bryant.

2. Defensive Tackles: Ndamukong Suh (4th) & Nick Fairley (3rd): Despite his temper issues, Suh remains one of the most complete defensive tackles in the league since entering as the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft. Though he has failed to replicate the production he provided as a rookie, he’s still a lethal threat to opposing quarterbacks. He generated 8 sacks despite seeing double teams in the interior, but those situations opened it up for Fairley and their ends. Fairley, a fellow 1st round pick, finally broke out of his shell and displayed the skills that made him a top notch prospect out of Auburn. The two create a young tandem that will remain the face of Detroit’s hard nosed defense.

3. Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (5th): People assumed that Stafford was brittle due to his injury riddled first two seasons in the Motor City. However, the former Bulldog lit up the league and almost set a record for most single season passing yardage (Drew Brees did) in 2011 when he eclipsed 5,000 yards and led his team to the postseason for the first time in over a decade. Like the entire team, Stafford regressed in 2012 despite still nearly passing for his previous year’s amount. His touchdown totals also fell from 39 to 20; it’s difficult to tell whether Stafford is an elite quarterback due to his abilities, or if Johnson makes life easy for the former 1st overall pick. Despite having Mega-tron in his sights, Stafford’s completion percentage fell almost a full 4%. Still, he’s a young gunslinger who’s got a powerful arm and a command for the offense. I’d take my chances with him moving forward.

4. Pass Defense: CB Chris Houston (7th), SS Louis Delmas (5th), Glover Quin* (5th): I’m not sure how this unit (minus Quin) finished 14th against the pass in 2012, but group definitely surprised despite not having marquee players. Houston is far from a lock down cornerback, but he’s steady. Delmas has been shaky since he was drafted, and he missed a majority of 2012 with a knee injury. Still, he was a Pro Bowl alternate in back to back seasons starting in 2010. Quin was signed from the Texans, who replaced him with former Raven Ed Reed. Like I said, I’m shocked by the success of this group considering they have a giant hole across from Houston at right cornerback, where Bill Bentley is better suited as a slot cover. They could easily spend their 5th overall pick on Alabama’s Dee Milliner in this upcoming draft.

5. Running Backs: Reggie Bush* (8), Mikel Leshoure (3), Joique Bell (3): The Lions missed a lightning element to their committee in 2012, but the addition of Bush should be a huge upgrade for their offense. While I don’t expect Bush to replicate his rushing output he had in Miami, he’s a good bet to catch 80 passes in 2013 as Stafford’s primary safety valve. If he’s treated as the primary back, he could eclipse the 1,000 yard rushing mark. Leshoure was a 2nd round pick just three years ago, and was definitely the go-to back as evidenced by his 9 touchdowns and 1,000+ total yards. Bell had a productive season as a 3rd down back, but he won’t come close to his touches as the clear third option at his position.

Draft: The Lions are in an interesting spot as they have to let the first four dictate their direction come draft day. They have huge holes at left tackle, cornerback, and defensive end, all positions where a premier prospect could be available at their selection. In a perfect world, and Eric Fischer, Dee Milliner, and Ezekial Ansah were available, I would think Fischer would be their pick. They know how poorly their offense runs without Stafford, and it should be every franchise’s main objective to protect the signal caller. The 2nd round will be filled with plenty of cornerback prospects, so they could always hope that either Jamar Taylor, DJ Hayden, or Darius Slay are available. The Lions are just a few players away from competing in the NFC, but they’ll have to address their needs and somewhat ignore depth. The time is now for this team, they just have to keep their cool and win the close games in 2013.

Previous Divisions Profiled in the NFL Bible:

• AFC East
• NFC East

Directed by Coodie and Chike, “Benji” tells the story of Ben Wilson, a prodigiously gifted basketball player who took the city of Chicago by storm in 1984 by leading Simeon Vocational High School (now Career Academy) to its first ever State championship and being named as the top player in the 1985 class. Today, Simeon — with its four consecutive state titles — is a certified powerhouse. Nineteen years ago, it was hardly notable. Today, Simeon’s biggest star is Jabari Parker, a high school senior poised to be a one-and-done stud at Duke, with a big contract waiting in the NBA. Nineteen years ago, the legend of the South Side was Ben Wilson, an effervescent scorer whose life was tragically cut short when he became Chicago’s 669th murder victim in November 1984.

Much as they zoomed in and out of footage to showcase Kanye’s ups and down in the “Through the Wire” music video — albeit somewhat hastily — Coodie and Chike weave in and out of game footage, media coverage, animations, and interviews with his friends, family, and notable Chicagoans who have eluded early tragedy (Common, R. Kelly, Nick Anderson, Jesse Jackson, among others) to tell Benji’s tale. Directors for ESPN’s 30 for 30 series are rarely, if ever, A-listers and Oscar nominees. “Benji” is no exception. Outside of sportswriters’ tweets and sports bar banter, the themes of these documentaries are rarely, if ever, probed and picked apart. “Benji” is no exception. Yet something about the film’s treatment of the lacking resources in an inner-city neighborhood, the strength of the family matriarch, the spectacle of tragedy, and the psychology of the urban, teenage black male demands our collective attention and reckoning.

There is a tendency, I find, for intellectuals to detest sports writing and for sports junkies to dismiss academic thought. Academic types see sports fiends as too pedestrian, while the junkies find intellectuals to be too high brow. There should be an effort to join these two hands, to merge the sports world and academic world that are falsely perceived as so distinct from one another. The ideas I bring up here reflect my desire to do so. These ideas flow from my curiosity at the film’s relative lack of serious consideration, rather than from any desire to persuade you of my own perspective. Blurry as my vision gets, I hope to let you all peek into the lenses that hang over my eyes and judge for yourself what to make of Ben Wilson’s story.

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Benji’s story starts and ends with Mary Wilson, his mother. A devoutly religious woman who worked as a nurse, Mary Wilson lorded over her children as a strict mother who inspired both fear and respect. Her older son, Curtis, helped raise Benji during long nights when night shifts kept Mary occupied. Somewhere along the way, however, Curtis fell into the ever-widening Reagan-era hole of crack cocaine abuse. Mary Wilson persisted, seemingly shedding some of her toughness onto Ben, whose relentless work ethic and competitive spirit fueled his meteoric rise.

For those familiar with the idea of a matrifocal community, the Mary Wilson character may come as no surprise. For those who still consider “Crash” to be a fair meditation on race — a camp I once belonged to — her character may be striking. In the 2005 film, Detective Graham Waters (Don Cheadle) fleetingly looks after his crack-riddled mother whose household mainstays include a rotten milk carton and a mangled tablespoon. As if the idea of an absent father isn’t enough, we’re also led to believe that Cheadle’s character has grown up and risen through the ranks without any sound maternal care. By highlighting the mother’s negligence, the narrative arc of the Detective’s wayward younger brother, Peter Waters, plays directly to the “crack baby” stereotype that pegs Peter as a strain on society who is disposed of by a man who feels threatened by him. The Waters family story may be a reality in some communities, but it’s hard to believe it’s anything but an exception rather than the norm.

The Wilson family story is also somewhat of an anomaly, but in a much different way. Mary Wilson’s composure in the aftermath of her son Ben’s death strikes a chord. Her ability to speak on behalf of her son with poise and power just hours after pulling the plug revealed a form of dignity that few women or men possess. There’s no doubt she was grieving. But she recognized that the sudden nature of the crime elevated the occasion to much more than just her own grief. Her public calm vaulted her to political acclaim as she gained favor with the Reverend Jesse Jackson, arguably the most powerful black leader of the day. She later took on a Eunetta Perkins-type role in Mayor Harold Washington’s political machine until he left office.

By aligning herself with Chicago’s Black political elite, Wilson raised her own profile and put a spotlight on the unjust circumstances circling over her son’s death. In 1985 in Chicago, all Emergency Response vehicles were mandated by law to take victims to the nearest hospital, not the nearest fully staffed hospital or the nearest trauma unit. As a result, Ben Wilson sat bleeding in an ill-equipped South Side hospital for hours before going into surgery. Nobody knows if a trauma unit would have saved Benji’s life, but the legitimacy of the law is clearly debatable.

Racial segregation post-Civil Rights era (even pre-) was carried out largely through city-led urban renewal and redevelopment efforts. The ghetto did not just pop up because poor people gathered in one area. It was built over time with steady doses of political pressure and weak resistance from the communities being affected. “Renewal” and “redevelopment” were simply euphemisms for segregation. As a result, Arnold Hirsch notes in Making the Second Ghetto, “The white hostility that isolated blacks spatially necessitated the creation of an ‘institutional ghetto’, a city within a city to serve them”.

A law that forces ambulances to take victims of violent crime in the South Side of Chicago to hospitals in the South Side only, regardless of the institution’s resources and staffing, speaks precisely to Hirsch’s point. A handful of neighborhoods, labeled publicly as “the ghetto”, become “a city within a city” where residents are caged in, receiving hand-me-down public services. The well-to-do doctors and other professionals flee to the suburbs, counting their blessings as they trot their way over. Ben Wilson’s story, in effect, may have been quite different if only he had lived elsewhere within the same Chicago city limits.

The laws have since changed. Mary Wilson scored a major victory by suing the hospital that was unable to resuscitate her son. In the aftermath of Ben’s death, her political prominence boosted her appeal. But Mary Wilson didn’t play her hand perfectly. By allowing her son’s death to bloom into a politicized tragedy, his funeral became a spectacle that alienated those who knew him best. The coverage of the funeral procession in “Benji” — a parade of free-flowing emotional gusto — shines light on the shallowness of the mob mentality.

Jam-packed with people who may or may not have ever even met Ben Wilson, the circus surrounding his last rites excluded those closest to him and, worse yet, promoted an exaggerated emotional response. A number of Wilson’s childhood friends saw the procession, perhaps rightly, as a contrivance. It wasn’t meant to honor their boy’s life. In their minds, the organizers had some ulterior motive, showcasing the community’s solidarity perhaps. The footage of hoards of wailing men and women highlights the high drama of the event.

I can see the logic of a mob assembling in response to someone’s death. Similar to a candlelight vigil for a missing person, it makes sense for an individual to decide to stand with their community in such a gathering. But the sadness circus is shallow. Whether you feel like it or not, you are expected to grieve. Whether you are teary-eyed or not, you are expected to be seen with droplets dribbling down your cheeks. Whether you are able to reel it in or not, you are encouraged to let loose in a space where hysteria has a certain healing power.

This idea of manufactured sadness lurks in the reactions of Ben Wilson’s friends. Perhaps they also felt violated in the way we sometimes do when our good friends start to spend more time with new friends that they have made. Others were being shown on the TV screen; others were giving eulogies for the dude they thought they knew best. Death is a tricky beast, one we rarely confront because of the inevitable uneasiness associated with it. Yet death’s inevitability gnaws at us, particularly when we remember those we know who became its prey.

Ben Wilson’s death, the 669th of the year in Chicago, sent shockwaves across the city. The police quickly nabbed the two adolescent assailants, 15 year-old Omar Dixon and 16 year-old Billy Moore. The media jumped on the story, hastily labeling the perpetrators as “members of a street gang” and “gang members”. Moore and Dixon signed statements at the police station acknowledging the crime was a “mugging followed by a cold-blooded shooting”. They accepted charges of Armed Robbery and Murder, but later recanted their statements, intimating that they were pressured to accept the story.

An interview with Billy Moore, recipient of a 2009 White House award for exemplary rehabilitation, gives us a glimpse of reality, or at least another version of reality. There are reasons not to believe Billy’s side of the story. He is a convicted murderer, as he readily admits. There is no definitive evidence to back him, simply hearsay from witnesses and participants. Yet I find his version of the story to be much more compelling. It’s not hard to see how Chicago police officers could have coaxed a confession out of two teenagers. It’s even easier to understand why Billy Moore might have acted the way he says he did in the heat of the moment on a cold afternoon in November 1984.

That morning — fourteen months after the premature death of his father — Billy Moore tucked a gun in his pants and headed to Simeon to settle a petty beef involving his cousin and some stolen cash. By the time he got there, the issue was settled. As Moore and Omar Dixon waited for a friend named Erica outside a nearby sandwich shop, Ben Wilson, locked in an argument with his girlfriend Jetan Rush, walked past and shoved Moore. A confrontation ensued. Moore demanded an apology, but the 6’7 seventeen-year old had no intention of backing down. When Moore showed the gun, Wilson snickered, “What? You gonna shoot me?” Two shots later, Moore was on the run while Wilson grappled with the two bullets lodged in his torso.

This was a dispute over pride, over reputation. Moore felt disrespected and Wilson knew better than to surrender his agency. This inability to accept slander of any kind is what makes Marlo yell out “My name is my name!” in the fifth season of The Wire. For a teenage male, particularly in an urban environment where individualism is more readily internalized as the only guiding principle, reputation carries weight and it must be protected at all costs.

Billy Moore learned this lesson as a ten year-old when his grandfather told him while cleaning his own gun, “Don’t you ever pull a gun on somebody and don’t use it”. As he stood six years later — gun in hand — before the top basketball prospect in the nation, the old head’s words echoed in his brain. Now you could go all Daniel Patrick Moynihan here and yap on and on about immoral family values and yada yada yada. But take a second to consider the logic: If you don’t want to be a tough guy, don’t act tough. If you do want the reputation, know that being a fake tough guy (coincidentally the same the three words KD directed at Chris Bosh) is akin to being a punk. Thus, taking on a tough guy persona means being willing to do what it takes to take to back that resolve. I don’t mean to suggest this is sensible advice, but it is logical. It is also deeply flawed, a reality Billy Moore swiftly understood only after it sunk in that he was responsible for a human being’s death.

I can’t help but imagine how this story and countless other similarly staged standoffs would be different if there wasn’t a gun playing a leading role. In upscale and squalid neighborhoods alike, children vie for attention, importance, and recognition. Competitiveness is stitched into the fabric of American society. Squabbles among males are commonplace in schools. Words are exchanged, bold claims are leveled, and, at times, fists prevail over cooler minds. Fighting is not inherently wrong.

Fistfights — I must rely on others’ stories here because I have little experience outside of brotherly bashes — can certainly be transformational, exposing us to our weaknesses and starkly reminding us to build up a stronger self. Fights can also be belittling and miserable, but by prodding us into a time of challenge and controversy it has the potential to reveal the true measure of ourselves (Side note: I feel awfully awkward bringing in the words of Dr. Martin Luther King while defending fistfights but that’s just how it makes sense to me right now). Fighting with guns, on the other hand, only exposes us to a world of regret and everlasting pain. Being the perpetrator guarantees a stint behind ironclad bars or perhaps psychological torture; being the victim all but insures a long kiss goodnight.

Yet still current newspaper headlines detail the efforts of a gun lobby to push more guns into schools “to protect the students”. Chicago still has upwards of 500 homicides a year. The Chicago Police Department seizes six times as many guns as the NYPD. This is hardly a political issue we should toss around like it’s a hot potato; this is a public health travesty that has been festering for decades (get educated here).

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“Benji” consciously levels many of the claims I’ve made here, but it also deflects them. It isn’t a film that tells us to confront the problem of guns on the street the way global warming was presented in “An Inconvenient Truth”. It doesn’t beg for our sympathy for the urban youth of Chicago as “Invisible Children” did for Ugandan children soldiers. It is intended for a sports-centric audience (see what I did there?). An audience that responds to the hyper-competitive/relentless work ethic narrative and, of course, the predominant narrative in sports tragedy — a dream unfulfilled. Those who saw Benji play were taken by his electric charm. Those who he held sway over knew him as “Magic [Johnson] with a jump shot”, a statement that stands only as an epitaph today.

By satiating the sports fan’s story-hungry psyche, “Benji” succeeds. But the film reveals so much more about the 80′s-era realities of inner-city life that it would be a shame to watch and to not think, to not discuss, and, perhaps most importantly, to not be curious.

“Benji” is available on Netflix and for purchase here.